The Polls Were Equally Wrong the Last Elecyion Cycle! Here's the Proof

[WelfareQueen]

I wrote the following post in the aftermath of the 2014 mid term election. It looks pretty damn on the money doesn't it?

It amazes me how frankly stupid so many Democratic Partisans were, as well as the media, and the pollsters.

The fact remains the Democratic Party cannot be successful without white voters. Period. As I said....the Democrats have probably lost white men forever, and in my opinion are on the verge of losing white women forever.

The exit polling was dead wrong this election cycle and even so said Dems only got 37% of the white vote. Broken down further.....it was 31% of white men and 43% of white women. In reality all of these numbers are likely lower because the exit polling sucked.

As I nicely said two years ago....Democrats need to get their head out of their ass.


theDoctorisIn

Sherry

Pretty fair analysis. The Dems were vulnerable to some degree because of the States in play (i.e more GOP red States). The overall GOP margin (approx +5) isn't as relevant imho for that reason.


I would pose several questions based on the election results.


1. Why were all the pollsters so wrong? The modelling was obviously way off. More than 100% in fact. The generic GOP ballot pre-election was + 2.5% per RCP. I assume this was why the pollsters used the modelling they did...but even so...they slightly biased against the GOP even based on this data. Again....why?


2. What happened to the vaunted Dem get out the vote machine? I think the Dem assumption that minorities will turn out heavily for white candidates when a black man is not on top of the ticket is clearly dead. This is now two election cycles with no Obama at the top of the ticket, and minorities largely stayed home. Why?

3. Can Dems assume minorities will turn out as heavily for Hillary Clinton as Obama? I think the answer is clearly no. I believe Hillary will have a much more difficult time then most Democrats assume. I'm not saying she cannot or will not win....but if the GOP puts forth a viable candidate I think the race should be very competitive.

4. Has the Democrat Party lost White Voters? The data suggests the Democrat Party has largely lost White male voters....maybe forever. Romney captured almost 2/3rd of the white male vote. Now White women now seem to be trending away from the Dems in a big way. There is an excellent article by the Associated Press regarding the movement of whites away from the Democrat Party.

A key quote: "Democratic Senate candidates lost ground among white voters by an average of 10 points compared with 2008. White voters abandoned Democrats in droves in places with heated contests as well as those without much action."

Kay Hagan got just 33% of the white vote.
Mark Warner 37% of the white vote.
Mary Landrieu 18% of the white vote.

Even in blue Illinois: "Democratic Senator Dick Durbin captured 43 percent of the white vote in his successful bid for re-election, that's down 18 points from his support among whites in 2008."


News from The Associated Press

 

[Sherry]

Good call. Does that mean it wasn't Comey's fault??