The Phantom's "Quick" Look at the Polls

[AceRothstein]

It's true RCP uses other polls that are skewed to get it's poll average, which in turns gives it false ratings.

which more accurately predict the actual outcome than any of the individual polls...
but that's just the actual numbers - without spin

Skewed polls predict the actual out come? You put all those skewed polls together you'll still have a skewed poll.

If they were skewed. Nobody has proven that the pollsters are doing anything different than they have always done.

 

[nodoginnafight]

which more accurately predict the actual outcome than any of the individual polls...
but that's just the actual numbers - without spin

Skewed polls predict the actual out come? You put all those skewed polls together you'll still have a skewed poll.

If they were skewed. Nobody has proven that the pollsters are doing anything different than they have always done.

and what they've done in the past (the RCP average) is produce incredibly accurate predictions of the final outcome.

 

[NYcarbineer]

[
Depends on who you ask I guess:

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

]

For the one thousandth time, you should at least read your own retarded fucking links, you fucking retarded fuckwit!

This is from the above, VERBATIM:

"the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote."

The Fordham 'study' that all of you worthless fucks are hanging your duncecaps on USED THE WRONG NUMBER. Obama did not win by 6.2 points he won by 7.3 points.

Can you acknowledge that? And at least salvage some shred of dignity to attach to your otherwise worthless existence?

LOL - sorry NY, not laughing AT you. You are 100% correct. The Fordham poly sci professor's study based on incomplete returns is what they fling EVERYTIME. I've posted the inaccuracy a thousand times myself. And posted the actual numbers only to get "depends on who you talk to"

LOL the actual numbers do not depend on anyone's opinion., They are the actual numbers. I'm laughing because I feel your pain.

I think the real reason fantasy boy disappeared for so long as I flung numbers in his face until he couldn't argue anymore with a straight face. LOL.

It doesn't even matter.

Rasmussen was the WORST pollster in 2000. He had Bush winning by 9. How about we determine a pollster's accuracy by a compilation of multiple results?

 

[nodoginnafight]

For the one thousandth time, you should at least read your own retarded fucking links, you fucking retarded fuckwit!

This is from the above, VERBATIM:

"the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote."

The Fordham 'study' that all of you worthless fucks are hanging your duncecaps on USED THE WRONG NUMBER. Obama did not win by 6.2 points he won by 7.3 points.

Can you acknowledge that? And at least salvage some shred of dignity to attach to your otherwise worthless existence?

LOL - sorry NY, not laughing AT you. You are 100% correct. The Fordham poly sci professor's study based on incomplete returns is what they fling EVERYTIME. I've posted the inaccuracy a thousand times myself. And posted the actual numbers only to get "depends on who you talk to"

LOL the actual numbers do not depend on anyone's opinion., They are the actual numbers. I'm laughing because I feel your pain.

I think the real reason fantasy boy disappeared for so long as I flung numbers in his face until he couldn't argue anymore with a straight face. LOL.

It doesn't even matter.

Rasmussen was the WORST pollster in 2000. He had Bush winning by 9. How about we determine a pollster's accuracy by a compilation of multiple results?

I agree with you 100%.
I've looked under the hood myself. Rassmussen's track record is horrible.

 

[NYcarbineer]

LOL - sorry NY, not laughing AT you. You are 100% correct. The Fordham poly sci professor's study based on incomplete returns is what they fling EVERYTIME. I've posted the inaccuracy a thousand times myself. And posted the actual numbers only to get "depends on who you talk to"

LOL the actual numbers do not depend on anyone's opinion., They are the actual numbers. I'm laughing because I feel your pain.

I think the real reason fantasy boy disappeared for so long as I flung numbers in his face until he couldn't argue anymore with a straight face. LOL.

It doesn't even matter.

Rasmussen was the WORST pollster in 2000. He had Bush winning by 9. How about we determine a pollster's accuracy by a compilation of multiple results?

I agree with you 100%.
I've looked under the hood myself. Rassmussen's track record is horrible.

They obsess on Rasmussen's decent performance in the 2008 presidential race without realizing or admitting that was one of the times Rasmussen more or less ran with the herd.

All I can guess is that Rasmussen is making a huge all in bet on everyone else being wrong and Ras being right,

with the idea that the payoff is a bonanza if that longshot came in, and if Rasmussen is dead wrong,

what the hell, he still has a fanatice rightwing audience that will always patronize him.

 

[EriktheRed]

 

[NYcarbineer]

Personally, I can't wait to hear the Phantom's next venture into 'analysis'.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

which more accurately predict the actual outcome than any of the individual polls...
but that's just the actual numbers - without spin

Skewed polls predict the actual out come? You put all those skewed polls together you'll still have a skewed poll.

If they were skewed. Nobody has proven that the pollsters are doing anything different than they have always done.

go to the RCP web site click on one of the polls and see how they came up with their results.
I looked at a couple from Wisconsin
One poll only surveyed 100 people obama's by 7
one poll was done in urban areas obama by 6
one poll was done last month but was used as a recent poll. obama by 6

 

[Greenbeard]

 

[AceRothstein]

Personally, I can't wait to hear the Phantom's next venture into 'analysis'.

I would suggest he spends a little more time on his next "look".

 

[AceRothstein]

Skewed polls predict the actual out come? You put all those skewed polls together you'll still have a skewed poll.

If they were skewed. Nobody has proven that the pollsters are doing anything different than they have always done.

go to the RCP web site click on one of the polls and see how they came up with their results.
I looked at a couple from Wisconsin
One poll only surveyed 100 people obama's by 7
one poll was done in urban areas obama by 6
one poll was done last month but was used as a recent poll. obama by 6

Please specify which polls you are referring to as I'm not seeing them or you are making them up.

There is one poll with just over 400 people surveyed, the rest were 500 or more.
I don't have the time to read through all of them to see which was only done in urban areas but based on your other false claims, not buying this one.
The polls computing the average were all done within the last 17 days.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

If they were skewed. Nobody has proven that the pollsters are doing anything different than they have always done.

go to the RCP web site click on one of the polls and see how they came up with their results.
I looked at a couple from Wisconsin
One poll only surveyed 100 people obama's by 7
one poll was done in urban areas obama by 6
one poll was done last month but was used as a recent poll. obama by 6

Please specify which polls you are referring to as I'm not seeing them or you are making them up.

There is one poll with just over 400 people surveyed, the rest were 500 or more.
I don't have the time to read through all of them to see which was only done in urban areas but based on your other false claims, not buying this one.
The polls computing the average were all done within the last 17 days.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_Wisconsin.pdf

 

[AceRothstein]

go to the RCP web site click on one of the polls and see how they came up with their results.
I looked at a couple from Wisconsin
One poll only surveyed 100 people obama's by 7
one poll was done in urban areas obama by 6
one poll was done last month but was used as a recent poll. obama by 6

Please specify which polls you are referring to as I'm not seeing them or you are making them up.

There is one poll with just over 400 people surveyed, the rest were 500 or more.
I don't have the time to read through all of them to see which was only done in urban areas but based on your other false claims, not buying this one.
The polls computing the average were all done within the last 17 days.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_Wisconsin.pdf

That poll data backs up 0 of your 3 claims.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Please specify which polls you are referring to as I'm not seeing them or you are making them up.

There is one poll with just over 400 people surveyed, the rest were 500 or more.
I don't have the time to read through all of them to see which was only done in urban areas but based on your other false claims, not buying this one.
The polls computing the average were all done within the last 17 days.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_Wisconsin.pdf

That poll data backs up 0 of your 3 claims.

LIKELY VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
24
Regular home phone
76
Total
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
25
Regular home phone
75
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Cell
27
Regular home phone
73
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Yes
92
No
8
Total
100
Total people polled 100

 

[AceRothstein]

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_Wisconsin.pdf

That poll data backs up 0 of your 3 claims.

LIKELY VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
24
Regular home phone
76
Total
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
25
Regular home phone
75
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Cell
27
Regular home phone
73
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Yes
92
No
8
Total
100
Total people polled 100

Sorry bud, those are percentages. See the top of the page where it says residents, registered voters and likely voters? There is a small n next to those, that is the number of people surveyed.

Still 0 for 3.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

That poll data backs up 0 of your 3 claims.

LIKELY VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
24
Regular home phone
76
Total
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
25
Regular home phone
75
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Cell
27
Regular home phone
73
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Yes
92
No
8
Total
100
Total people polled 100

Sorry bud, those are percentages. See the top of the page where it says residents, registered voters and likely voters? There is a small n next to those, that is the number of people surveyed.

Still 0 for 3.

Does it say percentage? Stop lying anyone can click on the link.

 

[AceRothstein]

LIKELY VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
24
Regular home phone
76
Total
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2012
Cell
25
Regular home phone
75
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Cell
27
Regular home phone
73
Total
100
RESIDENTS
September 2012
Yes
92
No
8
Total
100
Total people polled 100

Sorry bud, those are percentages. See the top of the page where it says residents, registered voters and likely voters? There is a small n next to those, that is the number of people surveyed.

Still 0 for 3.

Does it say percentage? Stop lying anyone can click on the link.

Do you see the "Likely Voters n =968" at the top of your link? It matches up exactly to what is listed on the RCP page. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Also, have you EVER seen a poll that only surveyed 100 people?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Sorry bud, those are percentages. See the top of the page where it says residents, registered voters and likely voters? There is a small n next to those, that is the number of people surveyed.

Still 0 for 3.

Does it say percentage? Stop lying anyone can click on the link.

Do you see the "Likely Voters n =968" at the top of your link? It matches up exactly to what is listed on the RCP page. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Also, have you EVER seen a poll that only surveyed 100 people?

It's not the percentages because if it was it would signify it with %
Yes I've seen a poll that did 100 people this one.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

here's another one of those polls I mentioned
Urban areas
Region
N %
Milwaukee City 94 13
Rest of Milwaukee media market 213 30
Madison media market 122 17
Green Bay/Appleton media market 131 19
Rest of state media markets 146 21

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf


_____________________________________________________________________________

 

[AceRothstein]

Does it say percentage? Stop lying anyone can click on the link.

Do you see the "Likely Voters n =968" at the top of your link? It matches up exactly to what is listed on the RCP page. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Also, have you EVER seen a poll that only surveyed 100 people?

It's not the percentages because if it was it would signify it with %
Yes I've seen a poll that did 100 people this one.

Those numbers are percentages, not sure if you are just being obtuse or if you don't understand statistics.

statistics - the meaning, mean, mode, average, range