The Phantom's "Quick" Look at the Polls

[BluePhantom]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.

The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.

The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"

 

[JoeB131]

The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"

The main thing you are saying is that you guys nominated a weird Mormon Robot who is finding all manner of ways to mess this up, and can't admit you screwed up to start with.

When a campaign already engages in teh finger-pointing of who messed this up, it's over. These guys are already thinking about how they are going to explain away this FUBAR on their resumes.

 

[Old Rocks]

This has been a strange campaign from the gitgo. Seems to be more about Romney the 'Conservative' versus Romney the Moderate Governor. With Romney with diarrhea of the mouth thrown in just to stir up things.

 

[NYcarbineer]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

The Washington Post VA poll September 16th has Obama UP by 8, not down.

btw if you think Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster then take note that Rasmussen now has Obama's approval rating over 50% and no incumbent president loses with an approval rating over 50%.

 

[NYcarbineer]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.

"

Throwing PPP and Foxnews under the bus because they don't have the results you like?

Let's go back and see what BP said about those polls in his initial 'analysis' in April:

Pay Close Attention To (Third Tier)
4. Mason-Dixon
5. PPP

Consider With Care
9. ABC/Washington Post (one good year in a history of disaster does not establish confidence)
10. Fox News (historically getting more and more accurate but not there quite yet)

So 5 months later they're 'crap'. Is there reason to believe they're now 'crap'?

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/218416-poll-reading-101-a-6.html

 

[Foxfyre]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.

The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.

The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"

I usually glance at Rasmussen every day and just note the polling trends reported by the media. I am guessing that far more important that the 'who do you favor' polls this far out from election day are recent polls that indiicate 22% of voters don't have a clear preference at this time, a full 60% of those who do have a preference are concerned whether their candidate is up to the job, and two thirds of voters think government is too big and does too much, and that has to have at least some affect on their vote.

As was the case in the Carter/Reagan campaign, the debates may actually make the difference this year.

 

[BluePhantom]

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.

The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.

The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"

I usually glance at Rasmussen every day and just note the polling trends reported by the media. I am guessing that far more important that the 'who do you favor' polls this far out from election day are recent polls that indiicate 22% of voters don't have a clear preference at this time, a full 60% of those who do have a preference are concerned whether their candidate is up to the job, and two thirds of voters think government is too big and does too much, and that has to have at least some affect on their vote.

As was the case in the Carter/Reagan campaign, the debates may actually make the difference this year.

The debates usually do have an impact and I think this year they will make all the difference in the world. Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard. And frankly all Romney has to do is keep sticking Obama on the economy (where Obama really has no realistic defense) and Romney will eat him alive in that venue.

See there's lots of elements in play right now.

1) People like Obama. They want to find a reason to vote for the guy because...they like him personally. But when the economy is shoved in their faces they really have to say "like him or not I won't go broke for the guy". Right now the media is playing defense for Obama and no one is talking about the issues that hurt him. That will change big time in the debates.

2) The RCP average is completely overrun with media polls and as well all know from my previous thread media polls are horrendously inaccurate. (yes even Fox. Fox is media and their accuracy sucks just like the rest of the media polls). Take yesterday's RCP polls. 21 total polls and about 12 of them were media. YIKES!!!

3) The LV models now become an important issue. Each pollster uses a different LV formula to weight their data and those are closely guarded secrets because it's that data which contributes most to the accuracy of their projections. Now the recent historical norm has been 32% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 36% Independent. That will change from year to year depending on what is happening in the nation but it's going to be somewhere in that ballpark. So when you do some closer inspection and see an RV breakdown of 28% Republican, 38% Democrat, and 34% Independent and the weighting has only resulted in a 1% shift.....ok that LV model isn't just faulty, it's flat out dishonest.

4) More and more political parties now use polling agencies to influence the polls. We know this about PPP and Democracy Corps who do it for the Democrats and Resurgent Republic who does it for the Republicans, etc. They are usually pretty easy to spot because on RCP they will have a (D) or an (R) after their name...they are also usually the "professional pollsters" who are way out of line with everyone else. But we are also seeing some "professional agencies" that are kind of hiding their identity. Project New America for example claims to be independent. Pffft....it's run by David Axelrod's son for God's sake, and they constantly show a HUGE Obama advantage over other pollsters. Give me a break. Who the fuck do they think they are kidding?

5) Political pressure is becoming a factor. Gallup is the only agency still using an RV model which as we know has an inherent liberal bias. Why? Is it because they recently got called onto the carpet by the administration when their results were starting to show good results for Romney? I will let you make up your own mind.

So what we have is a situation where media and political parties know good and well that polls are an avenue where they can influence voter perception and they are using it aggressively by flooding RCP with total shit. Again if I was working a statistical analysis like my last thread I would consider all those media polls and party affiliated polls, but right now I am not because they are simply muddying the waters; usually by innocent inefficiency but sometimes with corrupt intent.

Right now I am looking at Rasmussen, SUSA, Quinnapiac, Gallup (somewhat reluctantly because of their RV model), and there's a couple others I will kind of keep an eye on, but the rest are trash and I am pretty much ignoring them for now

 

[JakeStarkey]

Obama is not Carter, Romney is no Reagan, and no John Anderson is in the race.

1980 offers nothing constructive as a comparison with 2012 in the presidential election.

As was the case in the Carter/Reagan campaign, the debates may actually make the difference this year.

 

[NYcarbineer]

According to Gallup, there's been a recent BIG upturn in Democrats' enthusiasm for the election,

so all those confident predictions that a severe case of Democratic apathy was going to sink Obama can be tossed out.

Democratic Enthusiasm Swells in the Swing States, Nationally

 

[Foxfyre]

There are many similarities between Obama and Carter in the fact that they are both very likable--at least Jimmy was back then; not so much now--and they both have been ineffective in addressing the issues most important to people,and both approach their elections with very high misery indexes.

And there are many similarities between Romney and Reagan as both have been disfavored by the media and both are relatively unknown to people who haven't done any research.

In the wings are Gary Johnson/Libertarian and the Green Party and the Constitution Party candidates, all who will draw some of the "I don't like either major party" vote, perhaps as much as Anderson drew in 1980.

But thanks for keeping the thread going BP. I suspect several of us will be watching it with great interest and chiming in now and then.

 

[JakeStarkey]

There are no significant comparisons of the situation of 1980 to 2012 as it applies to the candidates.

The fact remains that Romney is no Reagan, and that Obama is no Carter, and that John Anderson is not in the race.

 

[Spoonman]

hmm...I will give this the rare bump. I figured I would get some kind of response.

interesting take

 

[Old Rocks]

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012


70.4%
CHANCE

Last prediction was: $7.04 / share



Today's Change: +$0.04(+0.6%)

Contract Type: 0-100

 

[HUGGY]

Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.

The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.

The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"

I usually glance at Rasmussen every day and just note the polling trends reported by the media. I am guessing that far more important that the 'who do you favor' polls this far out from election day are recent polls that indiicate 22% of voters don't have a clear preference at this time, a full 60% of those who do have a preference are concerned whether their candidate is up to the job, and two thirds of voters think government is too big and does too much, and that has to have at least some affect on their vote.

As was the case in the Carter/Reagan campaign, the debates may actually make the difference this year.

The debates usually do have an impact and I think this year they will make all the difference in the world. Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard. And frankly all Romney has to do is keep sticking Obama on the economy (where Obama really has no realistic defense) and Romney will eat him alive in that venue.

See there's lots of elements in play right now.

1) People like Obama. They want to find a reason to vote for the guy because...they like him personally. But when the economy is shoved in their faces they really have to say "like him or not I won't go broke for the guy". Right now the media is playing defense for Obama and no one is talking about the issues that hurt him. That will change big time in the debates.

2) The RCP average is completely overrun with media polls and as well all know from my previous thread media polls are horrendously inaccurate. (yes even Fox. Fox is media and their accuracy sucks just like the rest of the media polls). Take yesterday's RCP polls. 21 total polls and about 12 of them were media. YIKES!!!

3) The LV models now become an important issue. Each pollster uses a different LV formula to weight their data and those are closely guarded secrets because it's that data which contributes most to the accuracy of their projections. Now the recent historical norm has been 32% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 36% Independent. That will change from year to year depending on what is happening in the nation but it's going to be somewhere in that ballpark. So when you do some closer inspection and see an RV breakdown of 28% Republican, 38% Democrat, and 34% Independent and the weighting has only resulted in a 1% shift.....ok that LV model isn't just faulty, it's flat out dishonest.

4) More and more political parties now use polling agencies to influence the polls. We know this about PPP and Democracy Corps who do it for the Democrats and Resurgent Republic who does it for the Republicans, etc. They are usually pretty easy to spot because on RCP they will have a (D) or an (R) after their name...they are also usually the "professional pollsters" who are way out of line with everyone else. But we are also seeing some "professional agencies" that are kind of hiding their identity. Project New America for example claims to be independent. Pffft....it's run by David Axelrod's son for God's sake, and they constantly show a HUGE Obama advantage over other pollsters. Give me a break. Who the fuck do they think they are kidding?

5) Political pressure is becoming a factor. Gallup is the only agency still using an RV model which as we know has an inherent liberal bias. Why? Is it because they recently got called onto the carpet by the administration when their results were starting to show good results for Romney? I will let you make up your own mind.

So what we have is a situation where media and political parties know good and well that polls are an avenue where they can influence voter perception and they are using it aggressively by flooding RCP with total shit. Again if I was working a statistical analysis like my last thread I would consider all those media polls and party affiliated polls, but right now I am not because they are simply muddying the waters; usually by innocent inefficiency but sometimes with corrupt intent.

Right now I am looking at Rasmussen, SUSA, Quinnapiac, Gallup (somewhat reluctantly because of their RV model), and there's a couple others I will kind of keep an eye on, but the rest are trash and I am pretty much ignoring them for now

Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard.

In what alternate universe? Just that statement alone negates any credibility of your worth in analysis.

 

[BluePhantom]

Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard.

In what alternate universe? Just that statement alone negates any credibility of your worth in analysis.

When Obama has a teleprompter he's one of the best speakers I have ever heard. God forbid it ever breaks down. He bumbles, stumbles, and damn near stutters. Romney is solid in debates. His answers are clean, clear, and stick a point. There's a reason why he got the nomination. He never had a "death debate" like the rest had. Well unless they have changed the rules, Obama aint gonna have a teleprompter at the debates. He will handle the initial question ok, but when Romney presses him he's gonna be fucked.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Why do you think your fantasies deserve a bump.

The RCP Averages state by state show Obama leading in every "Swing" state except North Carolina.

And that was before Romney totally stuck his foot in his mouth over Libya.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote and the President Obama is supported by 46%. Three percent (3%) are not sure, and four percent (4%) are undecided. Swing State has 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Gallup Polls: Obama's post-convention bounce is gone race remains a dead heat. Gallup Poll: Obama 47%, Romney 46%.

The latest Gallup poll underscores this race remains a dead heat. The news for Obama fans continues to be bad, Obama's approval numbers continued their downward trend today, and his disapproval numbers also increased.

Poll: Romney has narrow lead over Obama in swing states - New York economy and politics | Examiner.com

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here is another indicator

ABC/Washington Post polling shows Obama’s approval rating at 48 percent. Pollster Gary Langer writes: “In polling since 1940, just four previous presidents have started their re-election year with less than 50 percent approval. Only one of them won, Richard Nixon in 1972.”
And what is obama's?
Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval

 

[bigrebnc1775]

According to Gallup, there's been a recent BIG upturn in Democrats' enthusiasm for the election,

so all those confident predictions that a severe case of Democratic apathy was going to sink Obama can be tossed out.

Democratic Enthusiasm Swells in the Swing States, Nationally

You really want to go with that? The question wasn't are Enthusiastic for voting for THE president. They might be Enthusiastic to vote obama out.

 

[HUGGY]

Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard.

In what alternate universe? Just that statement alone negates any credibility of your worth in analysis.

When Obama has a teleprompter he's one of the best speakers I have ever heard. God forbid it ever breaks down. He bumbles, stumbles, and damn near stutters. Romney is solid in debates. His answers are clean, clear, and stick a point. There's a reason why he got the nomination. He never had a "death debate" like the rest had. Well unless they have changed the rules, Obama aint gonna have a teleprompter at the debates. He will handle the initial question ok, but when Romney presses him he's gonna be fucked.

Are you serious? I'm going to guess that you are refering to the republican debates. Mittens was "debating" the most pathetic group of assclowns ever pushed in front of the American citizens. Who among THAT sad little troup was a serious debator? Baffoons.

If that is the height of your bar then you and RobMyMoney are in for a shock. Mittens won't be fag prancing out on a stage in front of paid and screened well wishers in the debates wearing a long sleeved white shirt desperately attempting to appear human. His glib juvenile quips compared to the thoughtful remarks by Barak Obama will be an embarrassment to caucasian people. I'm doing "wince" excercises just so I don't pull a muscle watching the things.

 

[skookerasbil]

I go with these guys who base their prediction on the economy of EACH state.........and theyve called between 45-48 states in EVERY election since 1980...........

Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory | The Raw Story

I heard this Vickers guy takilng about the election a couple of weeks ago..........states that there is virtually no way for Obama to get to 270, and the model he was discussing was pre-September economic numbers ( we all know what those brought), then the model was going to hit the reset button which they are doing now.

It doesnt take a genius to recognize historic trends of certitude: when the economy sucks and the incumbent is under 50%, its ALWAYS a blowout.

Too........you look in the media now, especially the print media and you have a level of delusional analysis because these people are just stupified that their guy is in this position. You'd think Romney was behind by about 25 points reading their shit.......and that is fine with me...........just makes the ultimate fall that much harder for the k00ks when it comes.