The Phantom's "Quick" Look at the Polls

[NYcarbineer]

You took way too long to say what I said in few sentences yesterday. Obama need only win what Kerry won in 2004,

plus Ohio.

Obama is well ahead in Ohio.

How is PPP poll flawed?

See, no answer on HOW the PPP poll is flawed. The OP just throws it out there, with nothing of substance to back it up,

and then the sheep come in and say 'oh my, great analysis'. Great my ass.

Eat s**t.

You do this all the time.

Hypocrite.

There's something wrong with asking someone to back up a claim that a poll is flawed?

 

[Listening]

See, no answer on HOW the PPP poll is flawed. The OP just throws it out there, with nothing of substance to back it up,

and then the sheep come in and say 'oh my, great analysis'. Great my ass.

Eat s**t.

You do this all the time.

Hypocrite.

There's something wrong with asking someone to back up a claim that a poll is flawed?

By someone who often fails to do the same ?

Yes.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Eat s**t.

You do this all the time.

Hypocrite.

There's something wrong with asking someone to back up a claim that a poll is flawed?

By someone who often fails to do the same ?

Yes.

Is there a poll I said was flawed that you need me to elaborate on?

 

[NYcarbineer]

You took way too long to say what I said in few sentences yesterday. Obama need only win what Kerry won in 2004,

plus Ohio.

Obama is well ahead in Ohio.

How is PPP poll flawed?

Obama has a huge advantage in Ohio. When push comes to shove, Ohioans know Obama is responsible for keeping GM and Chrysler alive, and that has been a very good thing for Ohio's economy. Anyone who states otherwise is just clueless.

The OP is clueless. He's running the con where you propagandize for your own partisan interests but try to conceal it under a disguise of pseudo-intellectual pseudo-academic

'analysis'.

Some people honestly think these worn out old tricks are novel...

 

[NYcarbineer]

1) Romney takes Florida (Obama 241 / Romney 235)
The RCP average currently has Obama up by 1.3 points. Considering point e above that’s pretty pathetic. Obama took Florida in 2008 by a mere three points (51% / 48%) despite everything rolling in his favor. For Obama to really be challenging in Florida he needs to be up by at least 5%, maybe 7%. When the debates get underway and as Obama’s DNC bounce continues to dry up (as it has been) Romney will gain strongly and score a pretty easy win.

.

As you see, BP fails to mention that his favorite pollster SurveyUSA has Obama up by 4, and both of the polls that have Romney up are polls that BP,

once upon a time,

told us we should ignore.

 

[Toro]

hmm...I will give this the rare bump. I figured I would get some kind of response.

I appreciate your thoughtful posts but I think your bias is showing. I'm in Florida, and I see nothing to substantiate your logic that Obama has to be up 5-7 points. Given the history of this state, there is no reason to assume that Obama will naturally slip by that many points. FL is going to be a 2% swing state one way or the other.

I am willing to accept that my biases may be clouding my judgement. Certainly possible and as you are a Floridian I will certainly defer to your knowledge of the state over my own (since I live in Oregon). However even if we use your 2% standard Obama is still in deep shit since we are talking about a 1.3% - 1.4% spread according to the current averages.

Certainly you are not going to argue that Romney will not close ground between now and election day

I don't know if he will close ground before the election. Romney might win, I don't know. But I've been through several elections here in Florida and I've not seen any evidence to make me think that Romney will close the trend just because he's the challenger.

 

[Greenbeard]

Well anything is possible. I am just going by history. Historically the challenger closes ground as the election nears. Historically undecided voters break for the challenger. Historically the challenger picks up ground in the debates since everyone pretty much knows the incumbent's position and the challenger has a better chance to influence voters to his side.

Reminds me of the Romney camp insisting that challengers generally get larger convention bumps than incumbents since it's their first true introduction to the public.

That didn't seem to pan out for them.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Why do you think your fantasies deserve a bump.

The RCP Averages state by state show Obama leading in every "Swing" state except North Carolina.

And that was before Romney totally stuck his foot in his mouth over Libya.

He didnt stick his foot in his mouth. Media is running interferance for Obama, they have barely talked about Obama's policies and blamed this on a movie, what a bunch of fucktards

 

[Foxfyre]

I wish you had kept up the original thread. I was enjoying it a lot. But this one will do.

 

[Katzndogz]

The problem with polls in this election is they change hourly.

obama's lead in foreign policy is dropping as we post.

Obama

We don't even know the effect the riots in the middle east over a movie being a pretext to release Shiek Rahman will have yet.

 

[BluePhantom]

The problem with polls in this election is they change hourly.

obama's lead in foreign policy is dropping as we post.

Obama

We don't even know the effect the riots in the middle east over a movie being a pretext to release Shiek Rahman will have yet.

My guess is it will hurt him and that's why the White House is trying desperately to paint this as simply a demonstration that got out of control and everyone else across the Middle East jumped on the bandwagon. Well I will agree with the last part. The increasing number of demonstrations is very similar to the Arab Spring. A bandwagon effect of "hey they got away with it over there, let's do it here too". But a spontaneous demonstration that got out of hand my ass. They had RPGs and mortars. Since when have you ever seen someone spontaneously show up at a demonstration (even in the Middle East) packing RPGs and mortars?

But if Obama admits it was a coordinated terrorist attack then it's going to play very badly for him in the election. Of course everyone knows it was, but it's all about the spin and appearances, you know?

 

[BluePhantom]

I wish you had kept up the original thread. I was enjoying it a lot. But this one will do.

I was enjoying doing it but unfortunately work takes priority. I hate it when responsibilities interfere with my posting addiction.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Obama wins if he takes Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He is ahead in all four now beyond the margin of error.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The latest Pew poll,

Obama up by 8 among likely voters.

Wasn't it this Phantom propagandist who tried to tell us that once all the pollsters went to likely voters,

Obama would sink?

http://news.yahoo.com/pew-obama-leads-8-points-dnc-bolsters-dem-180945318--politics.html

 

[NYcarbineer]

The problem with polls in this election is they change hourly.

obama's lead in foreign policy is dropping as we post.

Obama

We don't even know the effect the riots in the middle east over a movie being a pretext to release Shiek Rahman will have yet.

That same poll had Obama winning by 11 points on which was better qualified to lead us the next 4 years.

 

[NYcarbineer]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

 

[Foxfyre]

More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.

Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.

Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.

 

[courseofhistory]

LINK

9/20/12 PM

9/20/12 AM

9/19/12

LINK

By the end of Wednesday, however, it was clear that the preponderance of the evidence favored Mr. Obama. He got strong polls in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, all from credible pollsters. Mr. Obama, who had been slipping in our forecast recently, rebounded to a 75.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 72.9 percent on Tuesday.

The most unambiguously bearish sign for Mr. Romney are the poor polls he has been getting in swing states from pollsters that use a thorough methodology and include cellphones in their samples.

There have been 16 such polls published in the top 10 tipping point states since the Democratic convention ended, all conducted among likely voters. Mr. Obama has held the lead in all 16 of these polls. With the exception of two polls in Colorado — where Mr. Obama’s polling has been quite middling recently — all put him ahead by at least four points. On average, he led by 5.8 percentage points between these 16 surveys.

NOWCAST

94.8% Obama 5.2% Romney (chances of winning)

LINK

 

[Article 15]

hmm...I will give this the rare bump. I figured I would get some kind of response.

Here's my response:

Put down the crack pipe.

 

[Article 15]

Obama wins if he takes Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He is ahead in all four now beyond the margin of error.

He's also pulling away in Virginia.