The Phantom's Polling Analysis III

[AceRothstein]

BTW....what the hell is up with Quinnapiac this year? Historically in presidential elections they have been one of the most accurate pollsters around but this year they are WAY out of line with everyone else. They have rountinely been favoring Obama by about 5 points more than the other professional pollsters. Normally SUSA, Quinnapiac, and Rasmussen stay pretty close to each other, but this year Quinnapiac is totally apart from the rest and they have been all year. I am not sure what to make of it. At first I thought it was just because they have started doing polls affiliated with CBS News which means the media influence will fuck things up and that may account for it, but even when they pollon their own now they are still way off the average.

The internals tell the story...

They're oversampling D+9 in their latest Ohio poll...

That is rediculous...

In fact, you should revisit some of your predictions and look at internals of the polls with 0bama ahead...

And PA is definitely in play...

Whole bunch of fail here.

 

[AceRothstein]

I agree with you through number 4.

I disagree about colorado... sort of. even right leaning rasmussen has obama ahead. PPP has obama ahead by 3 ... i know you're thinking in terms of trend lines and mostly i think colorado depends on whether the bleeding from the first debate has been fully stopped and what happens in tomorrow's polls which will be the first that are fully reflective of tuesday's debates.

PPP is incredibly biased Jillian. Rasmussen has a 1-2 point GOP bias. PPP has a 4-5 point Democrat bias. Come on Jillian you know that. I agree that once you throw PPP out the window we have nothing to evaluate that is after the second debate. What we need is a professional pollster who has already taken a previous poll just before that debate so we can compare the before and after. What we don't need are media polls, Marist polls, or PPP polls. However, if we want to consider PPP at all (which I dont) I would point out that their previous poll of 9/23 showed a O+6 spread and after two debates it's now O+3. We can make the argument that according to PPP the debates have resulted in a 3 point shift and then apply that to the RCP average prior to the first debate....while that would result in a stronger Romney lead (which would support my biases) I don't think that's a fair or reasonable argument to make with any degree of confidence. I am ignoring PPP for a reason....they fucking suck and they are incredibly biased. Best just to ignore them completely.

For the 2nd Presidential election in a row, PPP outperformed Rasmussen in state polling.

 

[RDD_1210]

Holy shit this thread is amazing.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Holy shit this thread is amazing.

I took a lot of shit for saying that BluePhantom wasn't a poll analyst, he was just a propagandist for the right.

I think I'm vindicated.

 

[NYcarbineer]

I agree with you through number 4.

I disagree about colorado... sort of. even right leaning rasmussen has obama ahead. PPP has obama ahead by 3 ... i know you're thinking in terms of trend lines and mostly i think colorado depends on whether the bleeding from the first debate has been fully stopped and what happens in tomorrow's polls which will be the first that are fully reflective of tuesday's debates.

PPP is incredibly biased Jillian. Rasmussen has a 1-2 point GOP bias. PPP has a 4-5 point Democrat bias. Come on Jillian you know that. I agree that once you throw PPP out the window we have nothing to evaluate that is after the second debate. What we need is a professional pollster who has already taken a previous poll just before that debate so we can compare the before and after. What we don't need are media polls, Marist polls, or PPP polls. However, if we want to consider PPP at all (which I dont) I would point out that their previous poll of 9/23 showed a O+6 spread and after two debates it's now O+3. We can make the argument that according to PPP the debates have resulted in a 3 point shift and then apply that to the RCP average prior to the first debate....while that would result in a stronger Romney lead (which would support my biases) I don't think that's a fair or reasonable argument to make with any degree of confidence. I am ignoring PPP for a reason....they fucking suck and they are incredibly biased. Best just to ignore them completely.

For the 2nd Presidential election in a row, PPP outperformed Rasmussen in state polling.

It's going to end up that the CBS, ABC, and NBC polls got the final national poll closer than did Rasmussen,

despite that endless drumbeat from some corners about how the media polls are so much less reliable than the 'professional' pollsters.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Doesn't Nevada have a large Mormon population? Aren't those people going to turn out for Romney like blacks for Obama?
Lots can happen, almost all of it bad for Obama, before Election Day. If the stock market melts down it will be a blow out.

Nevada, election 2012

Obama 52.36%
Romney 45.68%
margin: Obama +6.68% (+7)

It was not even close and still DOUBLE Bush's highest margin, almost 3 times Clinton's highest margin.

Here, a little history for you, you stinky pissant fuckbag:

Obama 2008 - +12.49%
Obama 2012 - +6.68%

Bush 2000 - +3.55%
Bush 2004 - +2.59%

Clinton 1992- +2.63%
Clinton 1996 - +1.02%

Reagan 1980 - +35.64%
Reagan 1984 - +33.88%

Eisenhower 1952 - +22.89%
Eisenhower 1956 - +15.94%

There's a pattern there. Let's see if you are smart enough to figure it out.

Now, go suck an egg.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I agree with you through number 4.

I disagree about colorado... sort of. even right leaning rasmussen has obama ahead. PPP has obama ahead by 3 ... i know you're thinking in terms of trend lines and mostly i think colorado depends on whether the bleeding from the first debate has been fully stopped and what happens in tomorrow's polls which will be the first that are fully reflective of tuesday's debates.

PPP is incredibly biased Jillian. Rasmussen has a 1-2 point GOP bias. PPP has a 4-5 point Democrat bias. Come on Jillian you know that. I agree that once you throw PPP out the window we have nothing to evaluate that is after the second debate. What we need is a professional pollster who has already taken a previous poll just before that debate so we can compare the before and after. What we don't need are media polls, Marist polls, or PPP polls. However, if we want to consider PPP at all (which I dont) I would point out that their previous poll of 9/23 showed a O+6 spread and after two debates it's now O+3. We can make the argument that according to PPP the debates have resulted in a 3 point shift and then apply that to the RCP average prior to the first debate....while that would result in a stronger Romney lead (which would support my biases) I don't think that's a fair or reasonable argument to make with any degree of confidence. I am ignoring PPP for a reason....they fucking suck and they are incredibly biased. Best just to ignore them completely.

For the 2nd Presidential election in a row, PPP outperformed Rasmussen in state polling.

It's going to end up that the CBS, ABC, and NBC polls got the final national poll closer than did Rasmussen,

despite that endless drumbeat from some corners about how the media polls are so much less reliable than the 'professional' pollsters.

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond The moment of truth how did the pollsters do

 

[jillian]

I agree with you through number 4.

I disagree about colorado... sort of. even right leaning rasmussen has obama ahead. PPP has obama ahead by 3 ... i know you're thinking in terms of trend lines and mostly i think colorado depends on whether the bleeding from the first debate has been fully stopped and what happens in tomorrow's polls which will be the first that are fully reflective of tuesday's debates.

PPP is incredibly biased Jillian. Rasmussen has a 1-2 point GOP bias. PPP has a 4-5 point Democrat bias. Come on Jillian you know that. I agree that once you throw PPP out the window we have nothing to evaluate that is after the second debate. What we need is a professional pollster who has already taken a previous poll just before that debate so we can compare the before and after. What we don't need are media polls, Marist polls, or PPP polls. However, if we want to consider PPP at all (which I dont) I would point out that their previous poll of 9/23 showed a O+6 spread and after two debates it's now O+3. We can make the argument that according to PPP the debates have resulted in a 3 point shift and then apply that to the RCP average prior to the first debate....while that would result in a stronger Romney lead (which would support my biases) I don't think that's a fair or reasonable argument to make with any degree of confidence. I am ignoring PPP for a reason....they fucking suck and they are incredibly biased. Best just to ignore them completely.

For the 2nd Presidential election in a row, PPP outperformed Rasmussen in state polling.

Yes. Apparently reality has a left-leaning bias.

 

[Nyvin]

Nevada is about 5-6% Mormon btw.