The Peak Oil Conspiracy

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right, we runnin' outta ever'thin' - we all gonna die...

Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'
23 Dec.`13 ~ Industry expert warns of grim future of 'recession' driven 'resource wars' at University College London lecture

A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger. At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.

Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year: "We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years to maintain and grow supply... New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover – but production is still falling at 4.1% p.a. [per annum]."

Dr. Miller, who prepared annual in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007, refers to this as the "ATM problem" – "more money, but still limited daily withdrawals." As a consequence: "Production of conventional liquid oil has been flat since 2008. Growth in liquid supply since then has been largely of natural gas liquids [NGL]- ethane, propane, butane, pentane - and oil-sand bitumen." Dr. Miller is co-editor of a special edition of the prestigious journal, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, published this month on the future of oil supply. In an introductory paper co-authored with Dr. Steve R. Sorrel, co-director of the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex in Brighton, they argue that among oil industry experts "there is a growing consensus that the era of cheap oil has passed and that we are entering a new and very different phase." They endorse the conservative conclusions of an extensive earlier study by the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC):

"... a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020... on current evidence the inclusion of tight oil [shale oil] resources appears unlikely to significantly affect this conclusion, partly because the resource base appears relatively modest." In fact, increasing dependence on shale could worsen decline rates in the long run: "Greater reliance upon tight oil resources produced using hydraulic fracturing will exacerbate any rising trend in global average decline rates, since these wells have no plateau and decline extremely fast - for example, by 90% or more in the first 5 years."

MORE

See also:

Dramatic decline in industrial agriculture could herald 'peak food'
19 Dec.`13 ~ Most conventional yield projection models are oblivious to the real world say US researchers

Industrial agriculture could be hitting fundamental limits in its capacity to produce sufficient crops to feed an expanding global population according to new research published in Nature Communications. The study by scientists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln argues that there have been abrupt declines or plateaus in the rate of production of major crops which undermine optimistic projections of constantly increasing crop yields. As much as "31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production" has experienced "yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe."

The declines and plateaus in production have become prevalent despite increasing investment in agriculture, which could mean that maximum potential yields under the industrial model of agribusiness have already occurred. Crop yields in "major cereal-producing regions have not increased for long periods of time following an earlier period of steady linear increase." The paper makes for ominous reading. Production levels have already flattened out with "no case of a return to the previous rising yield trend" for key regions amounting to "33% of global rice and 27% of global wheat production." The US researchers concluded that these yield plateaus could be explained by the inference that "average farm yields approach a biophysical yield ceiling for the crop in question, which is determined by its yield potential in the regions where the crop is produced." They wrote:

"... we found widespread deceleration in the relative rate of increase of average yields of the major cereal crops during the 1990–2010 period in countries with greatest production of these crops, and strong evidence of yield plateaus or an abrupt drop in rate of yield gain in 44% of the cases, which, together, account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production." Past trends over the last five decades of perpetually increasing crop yields were "driven by rapid adoption of green revolution technologies that were largely one-time innovations" which cannot be repeated. These include major industrial innovations such as "the development of semi-dwarf wheat and rice varieties, first widespread use of commercial fertilizers and pesticides, and large investments to expand irrigation infrastructure."

Although agricultural investment in China increased threefold from 1981 to 2000, rates of increase for wheat yields have remained constant, decreased by 64% for maize and are negligible in rice. Similarly, the rate of maize yield has remained largely flat despite a 58% investment increased over the same period. The study warns: "A concern is that despite the increase in investment in agricultural R&D and education during this period, the relative rate of yield gain for the major food crops has decreased over time together with evidence of upper yield plateaus in some of the most productive domains."

MORE

 

[longknife]

I know this isn't going to sit well with you, but a Google Search for "does oil replenish itself" came up with over 3 million hits!. Check them out @ https://www.google.com/search?newwi....0....0...1c.1.32.serp..0.26.2287.dZq9UWSqj6c

 

[Mr. H.]

'Peak Oil' Burned as Exxon, Chevron, Shell See $100 a Barrel - TheStreet



In one word, Peak Oil got drilled by "fracking."

The free market was every bit as important as fracking in proving the Peak Oil School to be wrong.

Science and the free market proved popular 'peak oil' theory wrong.

Science? Free market? Whazzat?

 

[percysunshine]

Oil is a fossil Fuel

There is a Finite Amount of It

Humans Consume It

When It is Gone (cannot be recovered)....


.....Then Human Society will Fail.


Then Only Machines and Giant Computers will rule over pockets of humans, strugging to survive.

There is no such thing as a free lunch....but shit happens.

.

 

[KissMy]

Peak oil is a myth. It's a moving target.

It should be named the End of Cheap Oil.

We've extracted most of our cheap oil and are consuming the rest of the worlds cheap oil. The deeper you go the more expensive the oil gets.

Oil is a fossel fuel.

Peak oil is not a myth, but it is as you say a moving target. The End of Cheap Oil is how peak oil begins. We have already have the end of cheap oil world wide, peak oil production in the USA, peak oil consumption in the USA & peak miles driven using oil in the USA. Global peak is likely years away, but will happen since all the third world is rapidly increasing consumption. People alive today will witness Peak Oil.

 

[Samson]

Peak oil is a myth. It's a moving target.

It should be named the End of Cheap Oil.

We've extracted most of our cheap oil and are consuming the rest of the worlds cheap oil. The deeper you go the more expensive the oil gets.

Oil is a fossel fuel.

Peak oil is not a myth, but it is as you say a moving target. The End of Cheap Oil is how peak oil begins. We have already have the end of cheap oil world wide, peak oil production in the USA, peak oil consumption in the USA & peak miles driven using oil in the USA. Global peak is likely years away, but will happen since all the third world is rapidly increasing consumption. People alive today will witness Peak Oil.

Perhaps if we're lucky, war, famine, or pestilance will back out "Peak Oil" another century.

 

[KissMy]

High oil price killed oil demand, miles driven & the economy.

 

[ralfy]

Oil is also used to manufacture goods, including robots.

Peak oil is a myth only if oil is an infinite resource, if the same amount of energy is needed to get oil that is deeper, etc.

Finally, oil consumption is dropping for the U.S., EU, and Japan, but rising for the rest of the world.

 

[Mr. H.]

Oil is also used to manufacture goods, including robots.

Peak oil is a myth only if oil is an infinite resource, if the same amount of energy is needed to get oil that is deeper, etc.

Finally, oil consumption is dropping for the U.S., EU, and Japan, but rising for the rest of the world.

Brotch, please.

 

[ralfy]

Brotch, please.

As I see no relevance in your posts, I'll have to put your account in my ignore list.

 

[Mr. H.]

Brotch, please.

As I see no relevance in your posts, I'll have to put your account in my ignore list.

Success!