The over/under on GOP gains in Congress (+65)

[Ragnar]

The Forecast for November | The Weekly Standard

The House

Expect Republican gains to be the biggest in the Midwest, with the party doing particularly well in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Also, expect a solid rebound in upstate New York, as well as a potential sweep in New Hampshire, which should quiet the obnoxious “Death of Northeastern Republicanism” meme. The GOP might even take a House seat in Massachusetts, which would be the party’s first in the Bay State since 1994. Gains in the West will be fewer, although look for symbolic pickups in Arizona as voters punish the Democrats for Obama’s assault on the state’s new immigration law. Republicans should also pick up a fair number of southern seats, especially in Florida. However, because the party’s southern flank generally held the line against the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, there are fewer potential pickups in the South.

The Betting Line: GOP gain of 57 seats

The Senate

Since popular elections for the Senate were mandated by the 17th Amendment, there has been an unbroken historical pattern: When the House flips, the Senate flips, too. This could be the year that does not happen.

...

Still, Republicans have advantages. The party is all but guaranteed to pick up seats in Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. What’s more, a pick up in Pennsylvania looks increasingly likely. The Democratic nominee in Illinois, Alexi Giannoulias, is just as weak as Republican Mark Kirk. Michael Bennet, the incumbent Democrat in Colorado, looks quite vulnerable, as do Barbara Boxer in California, Patty Murray in Washington, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. All of these seats are toss-ups at the moment. The Republicans stand a fair chance of winning the open seat in Connecticut, where the Democrats have nominated a surprisingly weak candidate in Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The GOP also has an opportunity in West Virginia, where the popular Democratic governor Joe Manchin must contend with voters who strongly disapprove of President Obama. Blumenthal and Manchin are both facing rich Republican challengers who can fund their own campaigns. What’s more, in a year when the macro forces are as pro-Republican as they are, seemingly safe Democrats like Ron Wyden of Oregon and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York may end up in jeopardy.

The Senate outlook is extremely hazy. The next four weeks should clarify matters considerably.

The Betting Line: GOP gain of 8 seats

Wow, 65 seats? I doubt it. My guess is the over under in the House will be 49 and 5 in the Senate. What about the other big races? ...

The States

State political battles typically follow the national mood. This year appears to be no exception. Republicans look well positioned to win the governor’s mansion in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. Other Democratic-held governor seats are vulnerable: Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Democrats could cut their losses by taking Connecticut, Hawaii, and Minnesota​—all of which currently look to be Democratic pick-ups. The Democrats also have good odds of winning toss-up races in California, Florida, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

...

In the short run, gains in the states will not influence national politics, but they will aid the Republican party’s long-term prospects. Four of the last eight presidents had been governors, and a new crop of state executives will only increase the chances of strong Republican presidential contenders in 2016 and 2020. Victories in state houses are also critical this cycle because of the upcoming House redistricting battle.

The Betting Line: GOP pickups of 9 governorships, 6 state senates, and 9 state houses

That's a big year I don't care how the blame game blows around. And unlike my earlier moderating thoughts, I believe the Governorship wins could actually be higher... maybe 11. (I don't follow the State Senates and Houses so no guess there)

2010 will be a Hell of an election year no matter what though I think the gains predicted above are not all that far off. Time will tell. Things can still get better for the "Dims" before November. Then again, they could get even worse, lol.

 

[Toro]

The Republicans have been on the march for some time. However, over at Intrade, the odds of the GOP capturing the House has fallen from 77% to 71%, their first meaningful decline in some time. Still, the GOP are still the odds on favorite, but its interesting that the Dems have picked up some ground the past few weeks. It could be that the economic numbers have come in better than expected.

 

[DiveCon]

The Republicans have been on the march for some time. However, over at Intrade, the odds of the GOP capturing the House has fallen from 77% to 71%, their first meaningful decline in some time. Still, the GOP are still the odds on favorite, but its interesting that the Dems have picked up some ground the past few weeks. It could be that the economic numbers have come in better than expected.

and it could also be some trying to get in on something cheap
LOL

 

[shintao]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

 

[william the wie]

The state races are much more important than the congressional races because of reapportionment coming up in next year's legislative session. Not only all states losing or gaining seats but some multi-seat states will change apportionment with no net change in seat numbers. Since the goal is to put the opposition party in districts where hopefully 99% of the the voters would vote for the opposition party even if the penalty was immediate execution of 10% of such voters and the majority party cannot poll more than 60% in their districts even with free drinks and sex partners as a reward this shift could be drastic over multiple decades.

 

[Ragnar]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

No one has enjoyed "dictorial powers" in America since we kicked out King George and his Redcoats. Also, going by the numbers above the Dims will likely as not still control the Senate not to mention two more years of POTUS Obama.

Still, the voters are mad and it's Obama/Pelosi/Reid who shot themselves in their collective feet.

Gurwitz: GOP's biggest electoral advantage is not being Democratic

But with each passing day, it becomes less likely that Republican missteps will save congressional Democrats from a fate of their own making. It is a fate born of the arrogance of power and the reckless disregard of the opinions of those they claim to represent.

They said you were an idiot if you didn't understand that allowing them to spend limitless amounts of your money would stimulate the economy. You were selfish if you believed a federal takeover of health insurance would do more harm than good. You were a xenophobe if you supported the enforcement of federal immigration laws. And you were a racist if you opposed any aspect of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda.

Democratic leaders have sowed the wind with contempt for the American people. They should be prepared to reap the whirlwind on Nov. 2.

This is not a new tale. Republicans made the same mistake in 1994 and 2004. They mistakenly believed that obtaining a majority in Congress gave them an absolute mandate to do as they pleased. They mistook the results of one or two elections for a permanent realignment of the political firmament.

What's striking is just how closely the two parties mirror one another with their self-deceiving rhetoric. When George W. Bush won re-election and congressional Republicans padded their numbers in 2004, Karl Rove fantasized about a durable Republican majority that might last 20, 30 or even 40 years. Two years later when Democrats overturned that majority, James Carville wrote a non-fiction book with the pretentious title, “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.”

Just the way the ball bounces. (and always will)

 

[DiveCon]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

and just how are the dems doing with more powers than the GOP ever had?????

 

[The Rabbi]

The Republicans have been on the march for some time. However, over at Intrade, the odds of the GOP capturing the House has fallen from 77% to 71%, their first meaningful decline in some time. Still, the GOP are still the odds on favorite, but its interesting that the Dems have picked up some ground the past few weeks. It could be that the economic numbers have come in better than expected.

and it could also be some trying to get in on something cheap
LOL

Voters start paying attention after Labor Day, which is where we are now.
Not a single candidate is touting his support for Obamacare. Few are touting their support of the president's agenda at all. The Left is dispirited because Obama didnt deliver whatever the hell it was they thought he was going to deliver (he never made it clear in his campaign and the press let him off on it). The right is in triumphant mode, saying "we told you so."
Obama has divided this country more than it was. Our economic situation is worse. Our military situation in Afghanistan is worse. We are facing a resurgent Iran and North Korea and have pissed off our allies.
Bu the chief issue is the pocketbook, as always. Are you better off now than you were two years ago? For most people that is a resounding NO. The Dems will get the heave ho. The GOP will take the House. They may take the senate.
Obama's agenda is dead. He will reshuffle his cabinet. Emanuel is already making plans to leave to run for mayor of Chicago. I would bet Geithner, never really part of Team Obama, is sharpening his resume. Sibelius, Napolitano, and Holder are being waved in front of the bus, preparatory to being thrown under it. The rest of Obama's economic team, that hasn't resigned already, is preparing to.

 

[Mad Scientist]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

 

[The Rabbi]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

I thought they were the cause of torture, murder and rape?

 

[Gadawg73]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

FALSE.
The "Pelosi and Reid gang" ARE torture, murder and rape.

 

[Charles_Main]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

and just how are the dems doing with more powers than the GOP ever had?????

Just peachy! lol

 

[Ragnar]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

I dismissed the whole "torture, murder and rape" thing as a Liberal talking point tic. What do those things have to do with political parties? Other than the Dims desire to give felons who torture murder and rape their voting rights back?

 

[Toro]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

Yes, the Democrats really are that bad!

 

[DiveCon]

Geez, torture, murder & rape are closer than we think. Cons have already shown they cannot govern when they hold dictorial powers, so I see no fears if they completely control the entire pie again.

Well, apparently Torture, Murder and Rape are better alternatives to the Pelosi and Reid gang!

Yes, the Democrats really are that bad!

and everything they were bitching about the GOP doing when it was in charge(with smaller majorities) are STILL going on under dem control only the dems are spending 3 times as much doing it

 

[Baruch Menachem]

37 house seats.

gd has a sick sense of humor