The Obama Bull Market?

DavidS

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Sep 7, 2008
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/obama-bull-market.html




The Obama Bull Market?

by Nate Silver @ 5:01 PM
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The NASDAQ closed today at 1,763.56, gaining about 2.5 percent on the day to achieve its highest closing price since November 4 (Election Day, natch), when it finished at 1,780.12.

The NASDAQ was at 1,484.43 at noon on January 20th, at which point Barack Obama took over the Presidency. The NASDAQ has increased its value by approximately 19 percent since then, a span of 104.5 days. Per the compound interest formula, this translates to an 82.7 percent annualized growth rate.

Looking at the stock market, of course, is a relatively asinine way to evaluate the performance of the economy, much less the performance of the Presidency. But I think conservatives may have done themselves a real disservice by making the market the benchmark for Obama's success back when the major indices were slumping in late February and early March. The market was somewhat undervalued at that point by long-term measures like 10-year average P/E ratios, and the odds were pretty strong that it would produce above-average returns over Obama's term. It may not be a coincidence that Obama's approval ratings, which were declining over the first 50 days or so of his Presidency, have held steady since mid-March and perhaps even ticket upward -- his Gallup approval rating hit 68 percent yesterday (it fell a tick to 67 percent today), its highest figure since interviewing on January 22-24th.

There is risk here for Obama -- it is now much harder to make the case that the market is undervalued and volatility remains high by historical standards; a significant retrenchment is possible, as is a continuation of the bull market conditions of the past 60 days or so. But given the choice between having a leading indicator like the stock market be regarded as his economic benchmark or a lagging indicator like employment (where the numbers are still getting worse), Obama would take the stock market every time.
 
The Dow is also up almost 1/3 since the bottom.

All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

If I had a crystal ball I'd be on a sailboat in the South Paciific right now.
 
so let me get this right...

nasdaq at 1780 day obama wins election

nasdaq starts to drop and ends up around 1400 the day he is elected

nasdaq now at a few points below the day he won the election

this is somehow an obama bull market?
 
so let me get this right...

nasdaq at 1780 day obama wins election

nasdaq starts to drop and ends up around 1400 the day he is elected

nasdaq now at a few points below the day he won the election

this is somehow an obama bull market?

I wouldn't call it a bull market yet, and I suspect that is why there was a question mark in the title.

The point is that many conservative commentator pointed to the drop as evidence that Wall Street disapproved of the Obama administration policies, or that they were failing.

That argument starts looking pretty suspect against a 30% increase in the market.

Goose/gander.
 
so what...many democrat pundits, senators etc....blamed bush and his policies for the market decline...

this just cracks me up that seemingly everytime the market goes up obama gets praised. the market goes down it surely is not his fault. someone congratulated obama in a thread for the dow's rise in march...i pointed out that the dow was actually still below what it was the day obama took office, it went down immediately upon obama taking office, so in reality, all it did was go back to what it was the day he took office.

that was my whole point with the nasdaq...how anyone can attribute that to obama is beyond me...

obama wins, nasdaq goes down, now it is almost back to where it was when obama won and this is somehow an obama bull market....no
 
And lest we not forget that the market is not entirely based on what a president does... you will have recoveries with bad Presidents, you will have downturns with good Presidents, etc

But regardless if you put it on Obama or not, in whatever degree... this is not a bull market
 
... this just cracks me up that seemingly everytime the market goes up obama gets praised. ...

And I'm sure it equally cracked you up when the market went down Obama was blamed. It cracked me up too.

But amazingly, a lot of conservatives were claiming just that.
 
... this just cracks me up that seemingly everytime the market goes up obama gets praised. ...

And I'm sure it equally cracked you up when the market went down Obama was blamed. It cracked me up too.

But amazingly, a lot of conservatives were claiming just that.

what is with you? every single time you have make it about the other side, so i must have cracked up when they blamed obama...we aren't talking about that, stay on topic and if you actually read what i said of course i would have...

why don't you practice what you preach....i'm sure you defend bush against the dems blaming him for the market...stop being such a one sided hypocrite
 
... this just cracks me up that seemingly everytime the market goes up obama gets praised. ...

And I'm sure it equally cracked you up when the market went down Obama was blamed. It cracked me up too.

But amazingly, a lot of conservatives were claiming just that.

what is with you? every single time you have make it about the other side, so i must have cracked up when they blamed obama...we aren't talking about that, stay on topic and if you actually read what i said of course i would have...

why don't you practice what you preach....i'm sure you defend bush against the dems blaming him for the market...stop being such a one sided hypocrite

We weren't talking about Obama?

This thread is titled "The Obama Bull Market?" and Obama and his effect on the stock market were the subject of 6 of the 8 posts.

As you would write: "Do keep up."
 
no.......we were NOT talking about conservatives blaming obama, YOU brought it up as some stupid point that i must also be cracked up that conservatives blame obama, YOU brought it up. you're so far off what i was originally talking about its not even worth discussing this further with you.

its like you're on a different planet
 
Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery,

Yeah it only took the market 27 years to finally recover from the 1929 depression.

all one need to is invest for the long term then surive long enough to enjoy the market's tender blessings.

What did Will Rogers say?

I'm no longer interested in a return on my money, now all I am hoping for is a return OF my money.
 
Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery,

Yeah it only took the market 27 years to finally recover from the 1929 depression.

all one need to is invest for the long term then surive long enough to enjoy the market's tender blessings.

What did Will Rogers say?

I'm no longer interested in a return on my money, now all I am hoping for is a return OF my money.

Had you cited my whole post it wouldn't look like I had neglected your point:

All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

You could be right, we could be in another great depression. If you think that, you've been sitting on the sidelines, and missed out on the 30% gain so far from its trough.

I personally don't believe we are in a 1929 situation, precisely because unlike 1929, the Govt, under both the Republican and Democratic administration, took decisive action to forestall a total financial meltdown. I think we are probably in a bad recession, but nothing like '29 and the nation will work its way out of it. If that is the case, then my point about the historical rebound is accurate.

I tend to be an optimist; but who knows.

I'm definitely working on a return on my money instead of a return of it, but I started saving and investing in the early 90s.
 
Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery,

Yeah it only took the market 27 years to finally recover from the 1929 depression.

all one need to is invest for the long term then surive long enough to enjoy the market's tender blessings.

What did Will Rogers say?

I'm no longer interested in a return on my money, now all I am hoping for is a return OF my money.

Had you cited my whole post it wouldn't look like I had neglected your point:

All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

You could be right, we could be in another great depression. If you think that, you've been sitting on the sidelines, and missed out on the 30% gain so far from its trough.

I personally don't believe we are in a 1929 situation, precisely because unlike 1929, the Govt, under both the Republican and Democratic administration, took decisive action to forestall a total financial meltdown. I think we are probably in a bad recession, but nothing like '29 and the nation will work its way out of it. If that is the case, then my point about the historical rebound is accurate.

I tend to be an optimist; but who knows.

I'm definitely working on a return on my money instead of a return of it, but I started saving and investing in the early 90s.

All right Mary Sunshine, I just jumped back in.

I admit it has nothing to do with the gyrations of the market. I've been out for over a year. So while I missed the 30% uptick, I also missed the 40%+ plummet. So, I'm feeling pretty good right now. I'm now about 80% in. I'm keeping a little powder dry.

In my view, since last summer, a recovery should start to materialize this fall. We should be bottoming out starting now through the summer. In confluence with that, my criteria was seeing something that looked like the market intended to stay above 8000. I don't intend to hop in and out, so hopefully this is somewhere near the beginning and not merely the false hope of a bear market rally.
 
Yeah it only took the market 27 years to finally recover from the 1929 depression.

all one need to is invest for the long term then surive long enough to enjoy the market's tender blessings.

What did Will Rogers say?

I'm no longer interested in a return on my money, now all I am hoping for is a return OF my money.

Had you cited my whole post it wouldn't look like I had neglected your point:

All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

You could be right, we could be in another great depression. If you think that, you've been sitting on the sidelines, and missed out on the 30% gain so far from its trough.

I personally don't believe we are in a 1929 situation, precisely because unlike 1929, the Govt, under both the Republican and Democratic administration, took decisive action to forestall a total financial meltdown. I think we are probably in a bad recession, but nothing like '29 and the nation will work its way out of it. If that is the case, then my point about the historical rebound is accurate.

I tend to be an optimist; but who knows.

I'm definitely working on a return on my money instead of a return of it, but I started saving and investing in the early 90s.

All right Mary Sunshine, I just jumped back in.

I admit it has nothing to do with the gyrations of the market. I've been out for over a year. So while I missed the 30% uptick, I also missed the 40%+ plummet. So, I'm feeling pretty good right now. I'm now about 80% in. I'm keeping a little powder dry.

In my view, since last summer, a recovery should start to materialize this fall. We should be bottoming out starting now through the summer. In confluence with that, my criteria was seeing something that looked like the market intended to stay above 8000. I don't intend to hop in and out, so hopefully this is somewhere near the beginning and not merely the false hope of a bear market rally.

Mary Sunshine?? LMFAO! According to Publius, I am "he who must not be named"

You guys are going to give me psychosis.

You are a better market timer than most if you got out at the top. Hopefully you're right on the market, I'm sure we'll see downs and ups, hopefully not a new bottom!
 
Had you cited my whole post it wouldn't look like I had neglected your point:

All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

You could be right, we could be in another great depression. If you think that, you've been sitting on the sidelines, and missed out on the 30% gain so far from its trough.

I personally don't believe we are in a 1929 situation, precisely because unlike 1929, the Govt, under both the Republican and Democratic administration, took decisive action to forestall a total financial meltdown. I think we are probably in a bad recession, but nothing like '29 and the nation will work its way out of it. If that is the case, then my point about the historical rebound is accurate.

I tend to be an optimist; but who knows.

I'm definitely working on a return on my money instead of a return of it, but I started saving and investing in the early 90s.

All right Mary Sunshine, I just jumped back in.

I admit it has nothing to do with the gyrations of the market. I've been out for over a year. So while I missed the 30% uptick, I also missed the 40%+ plummet. So, I'm feeling pretty good right now. I'm now about 80% in. I'm keeping a little powder dry.

In my view, since last summer, a recovery should start to materialize this fall. We should be bottoming out starting now through the summer. In confluence with that, my criteria was seeing something that looked like the market intended to stay above 8000. I don't intend to hop in and out, so hopefully this is somewhere near the beginning and not merely the false hope of a bear market rally.

Mary Sunshine?? LMFAO! According to Publius, I am "he who must not be named"

You guys are going to give me psychosis.

You are a better market timer than most if you got out at the top. Hopefully you're right on the market, I'm sure we'll see downs and ups, hopefully not a new bottom!

LOL....I'd like to claim credit for being a market timer, but I was out because I changed jobs and I rolled my 401(k) and ESOP into my IRA and the market looked so f'd up at the time, I didn't invest it until summer and then only in some 6 month CDs. Even at that one of the banks failed and I had to get my money back from the FDIC :eek: Glad I stayed under the limits.

So, no great insights on my part, just pure dumb luck and knowing a pile of shit when I was looking at it....lol
 
All right Mary Sunshine, I just jumped back in.

I admit it has nothing to do with the gyrations of the market. I've been out for over a year. So while I missed the 30% uptick, I also missed the 40%+ plummet. So, I'm feeling pretty good right now. I'm now about 80% in. I'm keeping a little powder dry.

In my view, since last summer, a recovery should start to materialize this fall. We should be bottoming out starting now through the summer. In confluence with that, my criteria was seeing something that looked like the market intended to stay above 8000. I don't intend to hop in and out, so hopefully this is somewhere near the beginning and not merely the false hope of a bear market rally.

Mary Sunshine?? LMFAO! According to Publius, I am "he who must not be named"

You guys are going to give me psychosis.

You are a better market timer than most if you got out at the top. Hopefully you're right on the market, I'm sure we'll see downs and ups, hopefully not a new bottom!

LOL....I'd like to claim credit for being a market timer, but I was out because I changed jobs and I rolled my 401(k) and ESOP into my IRA and the market looked so f'd up at the time, I didn't invest it until summer and then only in some 6 month CDs. Even at that one of the banks failed and I had to get my money back from the FDIC :eek: Glad I stayed under the limits.

So, no great insights on my part, just pure dumb luck and knowing a pile of shit when I was looking at it....lol

Lucky bastard ... one of my friends was in the exact same boat, had a new job and rolled his 401k and had not reinvested when the worst part of the crash hit. Well, good for you, let me know next time you change jobs!
 
I'm gonna keep this real simple:

If the market goes up, Obama did it.....

If the market goes down, Bush did it.....
 
Real simple. The debacle was created by the Bush admin. Bush acted, but at the last possible moment. Obama took charge, and took some chances, and thus far they seem to have worked.

For sure, given the pile of shit that the previous administration handed President Obama, if he is able to get this economy turned around in the next three or four years, he will be a two term President, and be remembered as one of the good ones.
 
Real simple. The debacle was created by the Bush admin. Bush acted, but at the last possible moment. Obama took charge, and took some chances, and thus far they seem to have worked.

For sure, given the pile of shit that the previous administration handed President Obama, if he is able to get this economy turned around in the next three or four years, he will be a two term President, and be remembered as one of the good ones.

Thanks for proving my point ......
 
well actually Obama did have some input, his economic policy that is executed by geithner is what caused the late end of the rally. But it was Bernanke that started the rally from the bottom, I still remember the guys on cnbc saying "go, go bernanke!!!" for starting the rally. That s a good example of teamwork :thup:

This whole rally is mostly fueled by the banking stocks, stocks like citi have quadrupled over the last couple of months. Almost all the other big banking stocks have at least doubled since the start of the rally. The fact of the matter is that these banking stocks are making profits by using money from the government: so technically this is a government rally. And who said big government is bad? (lol) Big government made me a load of money right now (I bought the citi stocks at fairly low levels back in march). But it isn't hard making profit when you get to loan money for nothing ...
 
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