The Obama Bull Market?

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by DavidS, May 4, 2009.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/obama-bull-market.html




    The Obama Bull Market?

    by Nate Silver @ 5:01 PM
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    The NASDAQ closed today at 1,763.56, gaining about 2.5 percent on the day to achieve its highest closing price since November 4 (Election Day, natch), when it finished at 1,780.12.

    The NASDAQ was at 1,484.43 at noon on January 20th, at which point Barack Obama took over the Presidency. The NASDAQ has increased its value by approximately 19 percent since then, a span of 104.5 days. Per the compound interest formula, this translates to an 82.7 percent annualized growth rate.

    Looking at the stock market, of course, is a relatively asinine way to evaluate the performance of the economy, much less the performance of the Presidency. But I think conservatives may have done themselves a real disservice by making the market the benchmark for Obama's success back when the major indices were slumping in late February and early March. The market was somewhat undervalued at that point by long-term measures like 10-year average P/E ratios, and the odds were pretty strong that it would produce above-average returns over Obama's term. It may not be a coincidence that Obama's approval ratings, which were declining over the first 50 days or so of his Presidency, have held steady since mid-March and perhaps even ticket upward -- his Gallup approval rating hit 68 percent yesterday (it fell a tick to 67 percent today), its highest figure since interviewing on January 22-24th.

    There is risk here for Obama -- it is now much harder to make the case that the market is undervalued and volatility remains high by historical standards; a significant retrenchment is possible, as is a continuation of the bull market conditions of the past 60 days or so. But given the choice between having a leading indicator like the stock market be regarded as his economic benchmark or a lagging indicator like employment (where the numbers are still getting worse), Obama would take the stock market every time.
     
  2. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    The Dow is also up almost 1/3 since the bottom.

    All the doom and gloomers who are sitting out are missing the ride up. Will it continue? Who knows? Historically the market has been a leading indicator of a recovery, and the rebound year after a big loss can be impressive. But then there were rallies in the '29 and subsequent years that didn't carry through.

    If I had a crystal ball I'd be on a sailboat in the South Paciific right now.
     
  3. Yurt
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    Yurt Gold Member

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    so let me get this right...

    nasdaq at 1780 day obama wins election

    nasdaq starts to drop and ends up around 1400 the day he is elected

    nasdaq now at a few points below the day he won the election

    this is somehow an obama bull market?
     
  4. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    I wouldn't call it a bull market yet, and I suspect that is why there was a question mark in the title.

    The point is that many conservative commentator pointed to the drop as evidence that Wall Street disapproved of the Obama administration policies, or that they were failing.

    That argument starts looking pretty suspect against a 30% increase in the market.

    Goose/gander.
     
  5. Yurt
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    Yurt Gold Member

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    so what...many democrat pundits, senators etc....blamed bush and his policies for the market decline...

    this just cracks me up that seemingly everytime the market goes up obama gets praised. the market goes down it surely is not his fault. someone congratulated obama in a thread for the dow's rise in march...i pointed out that the dow was actually still below what it was the day obama took office, it went down immediately upon obama taking office, so in reality, all it did was go back to what it was the day he took office.

    that was my whole point with the nasdaq...how anyone can attribute that to obama is beyond me...

    obama wins, nasdaq goes down, now it is almost back to where it was when obama won and this is somehow an obama bull market....no
     
  6. DiamondDave
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    DiamondDave Army Vet

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    And lest we not forget that the market is not entirely based on what a president does... you will have recoveries with bad Presidents, you will have downturns with good Presidents, etc

    But regardless if you put it on Obama or not, in whatever degree... this is not a bull market
     
  7. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    And I'm sure it equally cracked you up when the market went down Obama was blamed. It cracked me up too.

    But amazingly, a lot of conservatives were claiming just that.
     
  8. Yurt
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    Yurt Gold Member

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    what is with you? every single time you have make it about the other side, so i must have cracked up when they blamed obama...we aren't talking about that, stay on topic and if you actually read what i said of course i would have...

    why don't you practice what you preach....i'm sure you defend bush against the dems blaming him for the market...stop being such a one sided hypocrite
     
  9. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    We weren't talking about Obama?

    This thread is titled "The Obama Bull Market?" and Obama and his effect on the stock market were the subject of 6 of the 8 posts.

    As you would write: "Do keep up."
     
  10. Yurt
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    Yurt Gold Member

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    no.......we were NOT talking about conservatives blaming obama, YOU brought it up as some stupid point that i must also be cracked up that conservatives blame obama, YOU brought it up. you're so far off what i was originally talking about its not even worth discussing this further with you.

    its like you're on a different planet
     

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