The numbers are against Obama's re-election..

Discussion in 'Politics' started by healthmyths, Jul 8, 2012.

  1. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    reality check: of the 2008 election 131 million voters:
    White 76.3% 99,953,000 44% Democrat Obama BUT 38% vote today
    black 12.1% 15,851,000 91% for Obama 87% would vote today
    Hispanics 7.4% 9,694,000 more democrats 67%
    Asian 2.5% 3,275,000 not sure

    Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History | Pew Hispanic Center

    June 12, 2012
    Similarly, whites' support for Obama is six points lower than it was in October/November 2008 (38% vs. 44%),
    and blacks' is down four points (87% vs. 91%).
    At the same time, Hispanics' support, at 67%, is essentially unchanged.
    Obama's White Base Shows Cracks Compared With 2008


    That math works out this way then if the same 131 million vote in 2012
    For Obama:
    38% of 99.9 million white voters is 37.98 million
    87% of 15.8 million blacks is 13.7 million
    67% of 9.6 million Hispanics is 6.5 million

    2.5% of Asian 2008 voters not sure or 3.275 million.
    So if add all Asians to above Obama total 61.54 million for obama or 47.79%

    But if you add all asians to below Romney vote total is 70.50 million or 54.7%

    Based on above polling data 38% for Obama in 2012 leaves
    67.2 million or 53% of 99.9 million white voters for Romney
    2.0 million or 87% of 15.8 million black voters for Romney
    3.1 million or 67% of 6.5 million hispanic voters for Romney.

    Romney therefore in 2012 election with 70.5 million or 54.7%
    Obama with 61.5 million or 47.7%

    Clearly Romney the winner based on 6/12/2012 voter polling.

    AND HOPEFULLY NO violent outbursts or major civil disobedience to the public's will!
     
  2. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    My math is simple for election night. Just watch Wisconsin and thats all ya have to do. If its competitive........Romney wins nationwide. Right now, Obama is up by only 3% ( THE definiton of competitive politically). It displays the mood just like it did in 2008...........in Wisconsin. Its the straight shit.........no distraction BS from the far left you get in here with RCP averages.
     
  3. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    The election will be decided very early on Election night; 7:00 Eastern. Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire will all be in by that time unless we have a 2000 situation.

    Here is a synopsis of just how hopeless Governor Romney's situation is: Adjusted for the new electoral vote scenario, here is the Obama/McCain 2008 results:

    2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

    Now this is where it gets fun. You can click on the states and if you were to give Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire to the Governor, he still would lose. Obviously this assumes that the rest of the map stays the same (it won't). The problem is that it is incredibly unlikely that the Governor will win all five of those states. So if the President carries any of those five (outside of NH), it offsets what may happen in the west and the toss-up states out there.
     
  4. rdean
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    rdean rddean

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    The "violent outbursts and major civil disobedience" won't start until Romney and the Republicans start raping the country worse than they did under Bush. Even USMB Republicans know Romney and the Republicans aren't going to do anything positive for the middle class. Just grind them down more than they did under Bush. They point to failed twin economic policies of "cut taxes" and "trickle down". People without jobs don't care about their taxes. Even right wingers said America couldn't survive if you took ALL the wealth the 1% and redistributed it. If that's the case, then "trickle down" certainly won't work.

    You can't put lipstick on a pig. Republicans mean no good for the middle class. That means they mean no good for America. America IS the middle class. As the middle class goes, so goes America. Republicans say, "Let them die".
     
  5. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Clearly, it won't be an early election night. The race will be tighter than in 2008. Obama has a record to defend and he hasn't even attempted to do that. His only strategy thus far has been to attack Romney on Bain and that has been debunked.

    Obama will have to do better than, "Hey, I tried!"
     
  6. rightwinger
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    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    It will be over by 9PM Eastern

    If Romney does not take Florida AND Ohio.....he loses
     
  7. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    So it would appear according to YOUR electorial college calculations that this will be 2000 Redux,
    but in reverse i.e. will Romney then sue and the entire election go to SCOTUS again???
     
  8. rightwinger
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    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    If the election were held today, Obama would receive 334 Electoral votes. Not even close. Obama currently leads in ten of twelve swing states

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2012
  9. BDBoop
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    BDBoop BANNED

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    Use smaller words.
     
  10. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    He also needs to take Pennsylvania and one of the two, NC and VA.
     

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