The next step

[Old Rocks]

Looking at this graph, you notice step intervals of about five years, each step being downward. The first step establishes a new low, then the next go up and down in the general area of that new low. Now look at yesterdays figure for ice area;

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

And the curve and direction of this graph;

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

How far down will this step go? And will it pause there for the next four years as it has in the past, or will it just keep going down now that it has reached this point? The old ice is almost gone, and the new ice goes so fast in the sun, that the Arctic Ocean is just getting warmer every year.

 

[Old Rocks]

The lowest figure of 2.91 was achieved on day 250 of 2007, day 226 of 2012, and we are at 2.98. What will the low point be this year? 2.7? Possibly 2.5? Twenty four more days to find out. And the ice is ever so thin and spread out.

 

[waltky]

Yea, Uncle Ferd says purt soon it all gonna melt an' den there won't be no Arctic left...

Arctic ice melting at 'amazing' speed, scientists find
7 September 2012 - Scientists in the Arctic are warning that this summer's record-breaking melt is part of an accelerating trend with profound implications.

Norwegian researchers report that the sea ice is becoming significantly thinner and more vulnerable. Last month, the annual thaw of the region's floating ice reached the lowest level since satellite monitoring began, more than 30 years ago. It is thought the scale of the decline may even affect Europe's weather. The melt is set to continue for at least another week - the peak is usually reached in mid-September - while temperatures here remain above freezing.

'Unprecedented'

The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) is at the forefront of Arctic research and its international director, Kim Holmen, told the BBC that the speed of the melting was faster than expected. "It is a greater change than we could even imagine 20 years ago, even 10 years ago," Dr Holmen said. "And it has taken us by surprise and we must adjust our understanding of the system and we must adjust our science and we must adjust our feelings for the nature around us." The institute has been deploying its icebreaker, Lance, to research conditions between Svalbard and Greenland - the main route through which ice flows out of the Arctic Ocean.

During a visit to the port, one of the scientists involved, Dr Edmond Hansen, told me he was "amazed" at the size and speed of this year's melt. "As a scientist, I know that this is unprecedented in at least as much as 1,500 years. It is truly amazing - it is a huge dramatic change in the system," Dr Hansen said. "This is not some short-lived phenomenon - this is an ongoing trend. You lose more and more ice and it is accelerating - you can just look at the graphs, the observations, and you can see what's happening."

Thinner ice

I interviewed Dr Hansen while the Lance was docked at Norway's Arctic research station at Ny-Alesund on Svalbard. Key data on the ice comes from satellites but also from measurements made by a range of different techniques - a mix of old and new technology harnessed to help answer the key environmental questions of our age. The Norwegians send teams out on to the floating ice to drill holes into it and extract cores to determine the ice's origin. And since the early 90s they have installed specialist buoys, tethered to the seabed, which use sonar to provide a near-constant stream of data about the ice above.

More BBC News - Arctic ice melting at 'amazing' speed, scientists find

 

[Mad Scientist]

Good luck finding the thermostat of the Sun.

 

[Old Rocks]

The lowest figure of 2.91 was achieved on day 250 of 2007, day 226 of 2012, and we are at 2.98. What will the low point be this year? 2.7? Possibly 2.5? Twenty four more days to find out. And the ice is ever so thin and spread out.

Day 248, and we are at 2.35 million square kilometers. Will the curve turn at day 250, or will it continue to go a bit further down for another week or so? It has already exceeded my worst case estimate.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

 

[skookerasbil]

then I recommend that we all go down to Home Depot this weekend and start work on our emergency backyard arks.................

As they say, you can never have enough insurance.

 

[flacaltenn]

then I recommend that we all go down to Home Depot this weekend and start work on our emergency backyard arks.................

As they say, you can never have enough insurance.

NICE ARK man.. Plenty of room for gungjah and beer.. I think I could get all the critters on board..

Ice melts at 0degC.. When you pass that threshold in the Arctic summer -- sea ice melts.
Can we move on? Or should I get those Ark plans from Frank??

 

[Old Rocks]

No, Flatulance, when the temperature hits 0 C, ice does not melt.