The Most Serious Issue Facing America and the World

[Uncensored2008]

The world is changing. This is a fact that no one can deny. Not only have electronic systems allowed outsourcing and offshoring, but advances in automation are making the need for human workers obsolete in many cases.

Consider this;

{By 2020, a considerably smaller proportion of the labor force will hold full-time jobs. Organizations will increasingly rely on contract employees and part-timers to get the work done, giving the organization greater flexibility. From the employee’s standpoint, it will mean greater individual control of the employee’s future rather than being dependent on a single employer.

Future workers will be more like outside consultants than full-time employees. Assignments will be temporary. They might last a few weeks or a few years, but the presumption is—on the part of both workers and employers—that the relationship will not become permanent. As such, you will find yourself consistently working on new projects with a different group of coworkers.} - International Journal of Management

America and the world have used the concept of a job as the means of wealth distribution. I posit that this method is failing, that as the number of tasks performed by humans decreases, the method of distribution will falter. An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people? How do these people earn a living? If smart machines do the bulk of the labor, how do we view ownership?

Thoughts?

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

The world is changing. This is a fact that no one can deny. Not only have electronic systems allowed outsourcing and offshoring, but advances in automation are making the need for human workers obsolete in many cases.

Consider this;

{By 2020, a considerably smaller proportion of the labor force will hold full-time jobs. Organizations will increasingly rely on contract employees and part-timers to get the work done, giving the organization greater flexibility. From the employee’s standpoint, it will mean greater individual control of the employee’s future rather than being dependent on a single employer.

Future workers will be more like outside consultants than full-time employees. Assignments will be temporary. They might last a few weeks or a few years, but the presumption is—on the part of both workers and employers—that the relationship will not become permanent. As such, you will find yourself consistently working on new projects with a different group of coworkers.} - International Journal of Management

America and the world have used the concept of a job as the means of wealth distribution. I posit that this method is failing, that as the number of tasks performed by humans decreases, the method of distribution will falter. An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people? How do these people earn a living? If smart machines do the bulk of the labor, how do we view ownership?

Thoughts?

it seems idiotic given that the guy who invented the wheel 3000 years replaced billions of workers and still we have full employment wherever the liberals will allow the laws of supply and demand to operate.

 

[SteadyMercury]

as the number of tasks performed by humans decreases, the method of distribution will falter. An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people?

Hasn't this been the case for thousands of years?

We managed to survive no longer needing the bulk of the workforce in agriculture because of advances in productivity, what did society do with those people? Where did all the telephone operators go? The travel agents, the elevator operators, the milkmen, etc. where did they all go?

 

[Moonglow]

as the number of tasks performed by humans decreases, the method of distribution will falter. An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people?

Hasn't this been the case for thousands of years?

We managed to survive no longer needing the bulk of the workforce in agriculture because of advances in productivity, what did society do with those people? Where did all the telephone operators go? The travel agents, the elevator operators, the milkmen, etc. where did they all go?

To a place with free rent...

 

[kaz]

The world is changing. This is a fact that no one can deny. Not only have electronic systems allowed outsourcing and offshoring, but advances in automation are making the need for human workers obsolete in many cases.

Consider this;

{By 2020, a considerably smaller proportion of the labor force will hold full-time jobs. Organizations will increasingly rely on contract employees and part-timers to get the work done, giving the organization greater flexibility. From the employee’s standpoint, it will mean greater individual control of the employee’s future rather than being dependent on a single employer.

Future workers will be more like outside consultants than full-time employees. Assignments will be temporary. They might last a few weeks or a few years, but the presumption is—on the part of both workers and employers—that the relationship will not become permanent. As such, you will find yourself consistently working on new projects with a different group of coworkers.} - International Journal of Management

America and the world have used the concept of a job as the means of wealth distribution. I posit that this method is failing, that as the number of tasks performed by humans decreases, the method of distribution will falter. An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people? How do these people earn a living? If smart machines do the bulk of the labor, how do we view ownership?

Thoughts?

They say that with every generation of technology

 

[Uncensored2008]

Hasn't this been the case for thousands of years?

We managed to survive no longer needing the bulk of the workforce in agriculture because of advances in productivity, what did society do with those people? Where did all the telephone operators go? The travel agents, the elevator operators, the milkmen, etc. where did they all go?

This is a fair point, and workers may well find other niches. But if the prediction that full time work is going to be replaced by contract and ad hoc work, then there is a significant paradigm shift in division of labor and the concepts of just compensation.

We know that manufacturing is returning to America at a vastly faster rate then it left during the 90's; but the jobs are not coming back with it. The manufacturing jobs of yesterday are gone forever. We become an every more service oriented workforce. But the problem with that is that service jobs pay poorly and will not support a healthy middle class.

I don't have an answer to this and am hoping to elicit thoughts from others.

 

[Uncensored2008]

They say that with every generation of technology

Yet the last generation of technology decimated our job force. Hitting the middle class particularly hard, as manufacturing jobs were lost to off-shoring.

We may see the same kind of decline with this new generation of technology.

 

[kaz]

They say that with every generation of technology

Yet the last generation of technology decimated our job force. Hitting the middle class particularly hard, as manufacturing jobs were lost to off-shoring.

We may see the same kind of decline with this new generation of technology.

Liberalism is what is costing us jobs. Going offshore for economic reasons is good for our economy. Going offshore to escape endless government
taxes, mandates and regulations is not and companies are going offshore for both reasons.

We are also a services economy and becoming more so. And anyone who wants a job can get one. Unfortunately people think it's more embarrassing to have a job they don't want than be unemployed.

Not sure though how our companies shutting down because they can't compete with international competitors helps jobs either.

The bottom line is any harm done to our economy in this "last generation" was created by fear and resistance to change, not by accepting it. Our business culture is the best in the world. Stop handicapping us with fear

 

[SteadyMercury]

We become an every more service oriented workforce. But the problem with that is that service jobs pay poorly and will not support a healthy middle class.

I'm not so sure, the service industry has evolved to go a lot deeper than people like janitors and waiters, it is more and more intertwined with technology and the associated higher paying jobs.

For example IBM is no longer built around churning out hardware, they sell business technology services. What do we consider the tens of thousands of well paid employees at Google? They make some things but mostly they provide services, be it advertising, cloud computing, software, etc. Same with the communications industry, they employ so many people working in solid middle class jobs that hardly existed a few decades ago, a cell phone is manufactured but then it is a service.

Hong Kong has a service economy and they are relatively wealthy, while many countries with heavier manufacturing like Indonesia are much poorer. As an aside, Hong Kong transitioned from a manufacturing economy to services in the 1970s and prospered.

 

[kaz]

We become an every more service oriented workforce. But the problem with that is that service jobs pay poorly and will not support a healthy middle class.

I'm not so sure, the service industry has evolved to go a lot deeper than people like janitors and waiters, it is more and more intertwined with technology and the associated higher paying jobs..

Yes, there are low end services, but there are also financial services, entertainment, travel and endless high end services. Services economy doesn't mean just low end jobs. Services businesses are higher margin businesses

 

[SteadyMercury]

Yep my wife is in the services industry, she's an attorney.

 

[kaz]

Yep my wife is in the services industry, she's an attorney.

My company provides graphic design, web design and marketing services, they are not low margin

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I quit my "full time job" a few years ago to become an independent consultant. I make more money now, and have control over both who I work for and when I work. The trend described in the OP isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Adaptation is the key here. Comparing today to 30 years ago, we may have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs - but on the other hand, there was no such thing as the internet, at least as we know it now.

How many people in this country work in tech today? I live in San Francisco, and perhaps it's the geography but it seems like everyone I meet works for Google or Soundcloud or Twitter.

None of those jobs existed 25 or 30 years ago.

 

[kaz]

I quit my "full time job" a few years ago to become an independent consultant. I make more money now, and have control over both who I work for and when I work. The trend described in the OP isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Adaptation is the key here. Comparing today to 30 years ago, we may have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs - but on the other hand, there was no such thing as the internet, at least as we know it now.

How many people in this country work in tech today? I live in San Francisco, and perhaps it's the geography but it seems like everyone I meet works for Google or Soundcloud or Twitter.

None of those jobs existed 25 or 30 years ago.

Most of the economic damage is done by those resisting change, not those of us who embrace it

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

I quit my "full time job" a few years ago to become an independent consultant. I make more money now, and have control over both who I work for and when I work. The trend described in the OP isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Adaptation is the key here. Comparing today to 30 years ago, we may have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs - but on the other hand, there was no such thing as the internet, at least as we know it now.

How many people in this country work in tech today? I live in San Francisco, and perhaps it's the geography but it seems like everyone I meet works for Google or Soundcloud or Twitter.

None of those jobs existed 25 or 30 years ago.

Most of the economic damage is done by those resisting change, not those of us who embrace it

of course Repubican capitalism is 100% about freedom and change. Look at China and how it has changed under capitalism compared to how it was frozen for 1000 years under liberalism.

 

[georgephillip]

An ever growing segment of the population will not be needed for production. What does a modern society do with these people? How do these people earn a living? If smart machines do the bulk of the labor, how do we view ownership?

The Industrial Revolution offered the potential to liberate humanity from the need to work by substituting machine labor in place of human labor, yet capitalism reserves all the resultant productivity gains for the owners of the machine. Guaranteed Annual Income would seem to be one solution.

 

[SwimExpert]

it seems idiotic given that the guy who invented the wheel 3000 years replaced billions of workers

 

[SwimExpert]

Hasn't this been the case for thousands of years?

The first humans came on the scene about 2.4 million years ago. It took from 2.4 million years ago until 1885 for the first car to be invented. That's a long time. A very, very long time. A long time in which personal transportation was done either by foot, or by animal. Since 1885 humans have traveled to the moon, and are currently working on traveling to Mars.

The point is that technology does not advance on a fixed linear trajectory.

 

[SwimExpert]

What do we consider the tens of thousands of well paid employees at Google? They make some things but mostly they provide services, be it advertising, cloud computing, software, etc.

The majority of employees at Google don't provide services. Writing writing code for software is not providing a service. It is just as much of a production job as building furniture.

 

[SwimExpert]

Yes, there are low end services, but there are also financial services

So banks, where growth is adding more and more relatively low pay tellers positions.

entertainment

Movie theaters, sporting events. Predominantly staffed by low paid positions.

travel

Hotels, my field. The industry of low paid front desk clerks and housekeepers.

and endless high end services.

Like luxury town car and limousine services when you go out and stay at a nice hotel and want to go out to dinner. Those drivers are fairly low paid as well.

Services economy doesn't mean just low end jobs. Services businesses are higher margin businesses

Yes. And how do they maintain high margins? By charging top dollar, and paying low dollar. If you come into my hotel and pay $350 for a night, do you actually know how much that costs us in overhead? Let's just say it's a big margin. A very, very big margin!!