The Most Accurate Pollsters of Election Results in 2008

Discussion in 'Politics' started by AquaAthena, Sep 11, 2012.

  1. AquaAthena
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    AquaAthena INTJ/ENTJ

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    :clap2: :clap2:

    All 23 of them:

    The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

    The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

    On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.
    Vox Populi.jpg


    Here is the list –

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**


    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

    Texas on the Potomac » The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
     
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  2. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    You will never see accurate poll results because you don't get to see the raw data. Very small pools of people are polled, then those results are adjusted and weighted. Then you see results. A poll can be manipulated to say anything.
     
  3. naturegirl
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    naturegirl Silver Member

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    Are you saying some polls actually skew the voters to lean to one side?? :eek: No way would an honest news site do that............Wait, are you saying some news sites and pollsters are being dishonest?? Well slap me silly. :lmao:
     
  4. blastoff
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    blastoff Undocumented Reg. User

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    The best and only poll that matters will be on November 6th by American voters.
     
  5. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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    I don't trust any of them.........yet
     
  6. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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    Will any of you trust them a few weeks out?
     
  7. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    I dont even trust them the day of. I want to see actual results. Look at that fool Kerrywonohio. He still believes the polls over the actual results.
     
  8. NYcarbineer
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    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

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    Obama won by 7.3 points.

    Rasmussen had him winning by 6; CNN had him winning by 7.

    Why is CNN ranked lower than Rasmussen?
     
  9. naturegirl
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    naturegirl Silver Member

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    Not sure, do you have a link showing that??
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  10. Leweman
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    Leweman Gold Member

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    The real clear politics average was actually the most accurate but that was the weekend before the election not 8 weeks out.
     

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