The Most Accurate Pollsters of Election Results in 2008

Discussion in 'Politics' started by AquaAthena, Sep 11, 2012.

  1. AquaAthena
    Offline

    AquaAthena INTJ/ INFJ

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2010
    Messages:
    15,453
    Thanks Received:
    11,061
    Trophy Points:
    2,265
    Location:
    ♥ TEXAS ♥ in Spirit
    Ratings:
    +12,342
    :clap2: :clap2:

    All 23 of them:

    The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

    The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

    On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.
    Vox Populi.jpg


    Here is the list –

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**


    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

    Texas on the Potomac » The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 4
  2. Katzndogz
    Offline

    Katzndogz Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    65,659
    Thanks Received:
    7,418
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Ratings:
    +8,337
    You will never see accurate poll results because you don't get to see the raw data. Very small pools of people are polled, then those results are adjusted and weighted. Then you see results. A poll can be manipulated to say anything.
     
  3. naturegirl
    Offline

    naturegirl Silver Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,416
    Thanks Received:
    862
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Location:
    NW Georgia
    Ratings:
    +862
    Are you saying some polls actually skew the voters to lean to one side?? :eek: No way would an honest news site do that............Wait, are you saying some news sites and pollsters are being dishonest?? Well slap me silly. :lmao:
     
  4. blastoff
    Offline

    blastoff Undocumented Reg. User

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2009
    Messages:
    13,494
    Thanks Received:
    1,707
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Location:
    In a galaxy far far away...
    Ratings:
    +4,589
    The best and only poll that matters will be on November 6th by American voters.
     
  5. Grampa Murked U
    Offline

    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2011
    Messages:
    47,510
    Thanks Received:
    8,768
    Trophy Points:
    2,055
    Location:
    Kansas City
    Ratings:
    +23,753
    I don't trust any of them.........yet
     
  6. Grampa Murked U
    Offline

    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2011
    Messages:
    47,510
    Thanks Received:
    8,768
    Trophy Points:
    2,055
    Location:
    Kansas City
    Ratings:
    +23,753
    Will any of you trust them a few weeks out?
     
  7. Avatar4321
    Offline

    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2004
    Messages:
    70,537
    Thanks Received:
    8,161
    Trophy Points:
    2,070
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Ratings:
    +12,152
    I dont even trust them the day of. I want to see actual results. Look at that fool Kerrywonohio. He still believes the polls over the actual results.
     
  8. NYcarbineer
    Online

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    95,766
    Thanks Received:
    11,233
    Trophy Points:
    2,060
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +30,105
    Obama won by 7.3 points.

    Rasmussen had him winning by 6; CNN had him winning by 7.

    Why is CNN ranked lower than Rasmussen?
     
  9. naturegirl
    Offline

    naturegirl Silver Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,416
    Thanks Received:
    862
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Location:
    NW Georgia
    Ratings:
    +862
    Not sure, do you have a link showing that??
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  10. Leweman
    Offline

    Leweman Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2010
    Messages:
    4,009
    Thanks Received:
    489
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +737
    The real clear politics average was actually the most accurate but that was the weekend before the election not 8 weeks out.
     

Share This Page