The misery index and the economy

Discussion in 'Economy' started by william the wie, Aug 25, 2011.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Unemployment (similar to the definition used now but very slightly higher) + Inflation (a lot higher than now) = the misery index invented by Jimmy Carter in the 1976 campaign.

    This rule really does work quite well. Presidents or other national politicians, presumably with exceptions, generally do not get reelected if the misery index increases on their watch. Also propensity to vote correlates highly with the age of the voter. Both of these rules seem to work worldwide.

    With the more or less permanent campaign platforms of the two parties pretty much set in stone: Ds inflate! inflate!; Rs seem determined to increase the misery index as the voter ages and becomes more likely to vote. So, the US is likely to see a lot of wild swings until platforms that are both Economically and Politically sane get worked out. However the whole world has this problem and the US has it about the least bad.

    So what happens to the economy when wild swings become the norm worldwide?
     
  2. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    Wide swings are the result of a lot of uncertainty over the future and current governance. So if it becomes the norm then that means we're still going to be barely muddling through on the edge of a recession or depression.
     
  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Yeah, looks to me like at least two lost decades dead ahead too.
     
  4. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    Well, I dunno. Suppose the GOP wins the WH AND a majority in the Senate and keeps the majority in the Senate. Doubt if they could gain a filibuster-proof Senate, but een so they could make big changes. If Obama can work around Congress, I see no reason why the Repubs shouldn't do the same, although it's not the way business should be done.

    Anyway, if the election in Nov 2012 works out that way I could see a major shift towards a more business friendly economic climate and a resulting upswing in jobs. The TPers have to realize we can't balance the budget in a couple of months, but disaster does not have to be a foregone conclusion. But if Obama gets re-elected or the Dems keep control of the Senate or retake control of the House, well then all bets are off. ObamaCare would stay in effect unless the SCOTUS doesn't rule against it. And we'd be fucked.
     
  5. sparky
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    sparky VIP Member

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    when it's proven that Citizens United vs. the FEC is partisan applicable , i'll believe this crap about jobs being created by any party
     
  6. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Giventhe fact that they're LYING to us about inflation?

    The misery index is WAY OFF.
     
  7. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    True and while the GOP could get their agenda through that has two major problems:

    A) It increases the likelihood of primary and general election challenges

    B) It helps those who likely don't vote and injures those most likely to vote.

    That will cause oscillation.
     

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