The malaise as I see it.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, May 10, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    We are tottering on the edge of a steep precipice that we still could still fall into. Once we start falling, there could be no stop until we hit bottom. The rest of the world will be down there with us wondering, "Just what in the hell happened to our great global economic boom? It appears to have popped just like a balloon."

    The only thing keeping us out is the outlandish Federal Spending of the past two years. I did not favor the bailouts for GM and Chrysler, but most of the rest was an appropriate last ditch effort in a maelstrom of extreme confusion. Paulson and Bush took a step in the right direction with their initial action as Bush was preparing to leave office.

    Bernanke may think he knows what he is doing but I am not convinced.. Geitner, ever optimistic for show, is just guessing, as the variables in this whole mess can not be quantified.

    The variables as I see them:

    One is the derivative damage. Nobody knows what the real number is.

    Two is the impact of the Global Recession. Nobody knows how great this is going to get, but it could drag us down with it, as we are not the industrial giant we once were.

    Three is deflation spurred on by collapsing home values initially and now by collapsing commerical real estate and lack of demand by the public.

    All three of these elements combine to leave us so confused that we don't know if we should sh!t or go blind.

    Right now, the stock investors have gone blind. The world economy is too unstable to be buying stocks.

    The stress test was conducted because many economists are now convinced that the Global economy will drag us down. That is my fear, too. In spite of what the administration says, I believe that the stress test was not all comprehensive, and I fear for the future.
     
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  2. foggedinn
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    foggedinn VIP Member

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    My favorite prophet of doom and gloom.

    The only thing I actually disagree with you about, is that you are just not negative enough.

    The political pundits and tv talking heads all seem to agree that the US will lead the world out of this world wide recession. I couldn't disagree more. The world will never again trust American economic leadership or America's version of capitalism. We had our chance and we blew it.:eusa_pray:
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    The fundamentals that caused this global economic crisis are only growing worse and worse.

    International Trade is plummeting.
    Unemployment is soaring!
    Consumer credit is crashing!
    New housing starts are still falling!
    House values are still falling!
    Foreclosures escalating in the past three months!
    Auto sales are still collapsing!
    Retail Bankrupticies are greatly increasing.
    Personal Bankruptcies are greatly increasing.
    Service Sector employees are being laid off and that breeds more and more layoffs.

    Tomorrow morning the Retail Sales numbers come out. I don't think we want them to go any lower. Already there are thousands of bankruptcies being filed all across the nation for small stores. Any further contraction in sales, and the bankruptcies will escalate.

    Here are some numbers from the past three months. The recent trend is DOWN, not up, as Obama and him minions keep on saying.

    Personal spending

    March -.2 %
    Feb +.4 %
    Jan + 1 %



    Durable Orders

    Mar -0.8%
    Feb +3.4


    Retail Sales

    Mar -1.1%
    Feb -0.1%
    Jan + 1.0%
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2009
  4. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Does anybody know of any indicator that is positive?
     
  5. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

    Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

    UltraClean Holdings
    Packaging Corp of America
    Office Depot
    JP Morgan

    There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

    I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

    Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.
     
  6. Said1
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    Said1 VIP Member

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    lol. :lol:
     
  7. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Retail Sales for Apr -0.4%
    Retail Sales ex-auto for Apr -0.5%

    Stand by for a serious market correction.
     
  8. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percent


    April foreclosures rise 32 percent, with more bank reposessions likely to come


    MIAMI (AP) -- The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday.

    RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percent - Yahoo! Finance

    Oh Boy!
     
  9. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Toro, a strong percentage of those house sales are repossessions. They count as a house changing from the previous owner to the Bank. Then when the bank auctions the house off to the highest bidder, that is a sale, too. Unfortunately it is causing house prices to fall all across the nation at an alarming rate.
     
  10. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    what's the use neubarth nobody takes you seriously.
     

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