The malaise as I see it.

[Neubarth]

We are tottering on the edge of a steep precipice that we still could still fall into. Once we start falling, there could be no stop until we hit bottom. The rest of the world will be down there with us wondering, "Just what in the hell happened to our great global economic boom? It appears to have popped just like a balloon."

The only thing keeping us out is the outlandish Federal Spending of the past two years. I did not favor the bailouts for GM and Chrysler, but most of the rest was an appropriate last ditch effort in a maelstrom of extreme confusion. Paulson and Bush took a step in the right direction with their initial action as Bush was preparing to leave office.

Bernanke may think he knows what he is doing but I am not convinced.. Geitner, ever optimistic for show, is just guessing, as the variables in this whole mess can not be quantified.

The variables as I see them:

One is the derivative damage. Nobody knows what the real number is.

Two is the impact of the Global Recession. Nobody knows how great this is going to get, but it could drag us down with it, as we are not the industrial giant we once were.

Three is deflation spurred on by collapsing home values initially and now by collapsing commerical real estate and lack of demand by the public.

All three of these elements combine to leave us so confused that we don't know if we should sh!t or go blind.

Right now, the stock investors have gone blind. The world economy is too unstable to be buying stocks.

The stress test was conducted because many economists are now convinced that the Global economy will drag us down. That is my fear, too. In spite of what the administration says, I believe that the stress test was not all comprehensive, and I fear for the future.

 

[foggedinn]

My favorite prophet of doom and gloom.

The only thing I actually disagree with you about, is that you are just not negative enough.

The political pundits and tv talking heads all seem to agree that the US will lead the world out of this world wide recession. I couldn't disagree more. The world will never again trust American economic leadership or America's version of capitalism. We had our chance and we blew it.

 

[Neubarth]

The fundamentals that caused this global economic crisis are only growing worse and worse.

International Trade is plummeting.
Unemployment is soaring!
Consumer credit is crashing!
New housing starts are still falling!
House values are still falling!
Foreclosures escalating in the past three months!
Auto sales are still collapsing!
Retail Bankrupticies are greatly increasing.
Personal Bankruptcies are greatly increasing.
Service Sector employees are being laid off and that breeds more and more layoffs.

Tomorrow morning the Retail Sales numbers come out. I don't think we want them to go any lower. Already there are thousands of bankruptcies being filed all across the nation for small stores. Any further contraction in sales, and the bankruptcies will escalate.

Here are some numbers from the past three months. The recent trend is DOWN, not up, as Obama and him minions keep on saying.

Personal spending

March -.2 %
Feb +.4 %
Jan + 1 %



Durable Orders

Mar -0.8%
Feb +3.4


Retail Sales

Mar -1.1%
Feb -0.1%
Jan + 1.0%

 

[Neubarth]

Does anybody know of any indicator that is positive?

 

[Toro]

We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

UltraClean Holdings
Packaging Corp of America
Office Depot
JP Morgan

There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

 

[Said1]

We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

UltraClean Holdings
Packaging Corp of America
Office Depot
JP Morgan

There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

lol.

 

[Neubarth]

Retail Sales for Apr -0.4%
Retail Sales ex-auto for Apr -0.5%

Stand by for a serious market correction.

 

[Neubarth]

RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percent


April foreclosures rise 32 percent, with more bank reposessions likely to come


MIAMI (AP) -- The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday.

RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percent - Yahoo! Finance

Oh Boy!

 

[Neubarth]

We're past the precipice. .

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Toro, a strong percentage of those house sales are repossessions. They count as a house changing from the previous owner to the Bank. Then when the bank auctions the house off to the highest bidder, that is a sale, too. Unfortunately it is causing house prices to fall all across the nation at an alarming rate.

 

[wimpy77]

We're past the precipice. .

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Toro, a strong percentage of those house sales are repossessions. They count as a house changing from the previous owner to the Bank. Then when the bank auctions the house off to the highest bidder, that is a sale, too. Unfortunately it is causing house prices to fall all across the nation at an alarming rate.

what's the use neubarth nobody takes you seriously.

 

[Toro]

We're past the precipice. .

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Toro, a strong percentage of those house sales are repossessions. They count as a house changing from the previous owner to the Bank. Then when the bank auctions the house off to the highest bidder, that is a sale, too. Unfortunately it is causing house prices to fall all across the nation at an alarming rate.

Yeah, that's fine though because that had to happen. Banks blowing repos out the door is a sign that the housing market is starting to bottom. This is how banks move bad assets off their books and start lending to better credits. This is how it always works at the bottom.

 

[Zoomie1980]

We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

UltraClean Holdings
Packaging Corp of America
Office Depot
JP Morgan

There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Add the four Tier I railroads to that list. Railcar loadings aren't getting any better....but they aren't getting any worse, either. They bottomed last winter and have remained about there since. Just waiting for significant moves up....

 

[Paulie]

Does anybody know of any indicator that is positive?

Since when do you get significant amounts of positive indicators in the middle of a bad recession?

I'm not sure what you're complaining about here. It's the same bad economic numbers as we've BEEN seeing, only they're starting to level off a bit. You mention unemployment EVERYTIME, but what else do you expect in a recession? You think businesses should just throw away the little profit they might still make by keeping staff at pre-recession levels? They'd basically be paying most of them to sit on their asses and do nothing since business is way down right now.

But UE is levelling off as well. I'm a bear too Neubarth, but even I can recognize SOMETHING positive, even if it's minimal.

Suck it up and live your life. Whatever happens, happens.

 

[editec]

I doubt that economies really recover.

I think they evolve, rather like the weather evolves.

Sometimes those evolutions lead to halcyon days.

Other times the economic winds blow your house down.

Our economy, the post cold war economy, is evolving into something else.

The 21st century will see the USA wane from the dominant economic culture, possibly to a large, but not too wealthy economy.

I personally think the 21st century sees the end of the nation state.

That is going to be one hell of an evolution, and of course, what will be driving that drastic change is the way that our society has become dominated by the international marketplace.

The monied classes have more in common than their national status differentiates them.

They have allied interests regardless of what language they speak.

I personally think we're headed to some sort of blade-runner, corporate feudal, one-world state..

Free trade makes that inevitable, of course.

Much reduced in power nations will decide such important issues as what color uniforms their respective prison guards will be wearing, and not much else.

Major decisions will be made behind closed doors by some corporate plutocracy.

Eventually these economic cabals will have their own armies, police, social services and so forth.

These economic powerhouses will be more fluid than nations, and probably won't be distinguished by borders, but instead by the markets that they control.

There will still be plenty of work for Hessians and whores, of course.

Those service professions blossom under merchantilist regimes.

Could be a real interesting century.

 

[cbi0090]

Deflation is what everyone is running scared from right now, because there's not much you can do after real interest rates hit zero. The dial just does go any further, so the only tool left is to pump cash into the system and cross your fingers. That's why every western nation is doing it. Even China is doing it, but the difference is that they actually have cash. If the ploy works and instills more confidence in the system then we're going to have to deal with the next big problem - inflation. Let there be no doubt, it's coming and in a big way but when it does our interest dial can now be used to control it. At least, that's how it's worked in the past. Dial it up a bit, burn some cash pay down debt, let it down a short while, dial it up again, and so forth and so forth till we navigate our way out.
Well, we'll see. I personally have my doubts. I don't think single controls by central banks are going to work anymore and we've never worked with this much debt and so much need at one time. The rules are very different now and it's going to take a whole new breed of economists to work it out without something blowing sky high eventually.

 

[Toro]

We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

UltraClean Holdings
Packaging Corp of America
Office Depot
JP Morgan

There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Add the four Tier I railroads to that list. Railcar loadings aren't getting any better....but they aren't getting any worse, either. They bottomed last winter and have remained about there since. Just waiting for significant moves up....

Yeah, thanks, I'd heard that somewhere.

We're still in a recession but catastrophic depression is off the table.

 

[foggedinn]

We're past the precipice. Things are stabilizing. I've had meetings with companies that are saying we have stabilized and things are beginning to pick up a bit. We aren't rocketing up but we've stopped going down.

Companies off the top of my head that have said things have bottomed include

UltraClean Holdings
Packaging Corp of America
Office Depot
JP Morgan

There are several others, but I can't think of them at the moment.

I don't have my Bloomberg in front of me but several indicators have turned positive. Today, NAR reported that home sales are rising and in some areas, prices have started to increase.

Also, job losses may have peaked. We will know over the next few months.

Add the four Tier I railroads to that list. Railcar loadings aren't getting any better....but they aren't getting any worse, either. They bottomed last winter and have remained about there since. Just waiting for significant moves up....

Yeah, thanks, I'd heard that somewhere.

We're still in a recession but catastrophic depression is off the table.

Contrary to what the pundits and tv talking heads say, we are nowhere near the end of the beginning of this economic downturn.

The finance driven service economy has failed as a sustainable model, and nothing has been put forward to replace it.

We're still trying to fix a failed model. We seem to be fighting with each other over whether we should replace the oxygen sensor or the spark plug wires on a blown engine; an exercise in futility.

Where there is no vision; the people perish.