the latest HockeyStick, Neukom2014

Discussion in 'Environment' started by IanC, Apr 6, 2014.

  1. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2174.html

    I doubt that this latest hockeystick will get retracted like Gergis2012 (same batch of authors BTW) because it is more honest in describing how they cherrypick proxies to get a hockeystick shaped graph.

    would you like to see the 100+ proxies that are already screened to produce a predetermined result?

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    all data is from the SI at Nature.

    and of course the mean, with Neukom's results added

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    as I have said before, be careful of proxy reconstructions. especially the estimated standard deviations of error.

    thanks to Willis. Neukom?s Science By Proxy | Watts Up With That?. Duke Neukom?s Secret Sauce | Watts Up With That?

    and of course to Steve. Neukom and Gergis Serve Cold Screened Spaghetti « Climate Audit

    it doesnt matter if you are a warmer or a denier. if you read those links you will know more about the process of producing a proxy reconstruction.
     
  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Doesn't make any sense...The proxies say the opposite from his conclusion :(
     
  3. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    I wouldnt say the 'opposite'. I would say that they dont say much of anything at all.

    and the proxies for gergis ,marcott and shakun were just as equivical, with time direction and size problems. remember, these are the ones that were selected! it is hard to believe that the one discarded were even more random.
     
  4. Abraham3
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    Abraham3 BANNED

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    What do YOU mean when you say "hockeystick", Ian?
     
  5. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    hockeystick graphs? shaped like a hockeystick. the upwards blade can be made by many methods. the most popular are by combining low sensitivity, low variance proxy data with high variance, high sensitivity instrumental data and/or poor methodology to select and train proxy data to show a spurious upward trend.
     
  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Platinum Member

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    Amazing.

    It's Fraud, pure, outright fraud.
     
  7. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn USMB Mod Staff Member

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    More like witchcraft.. I love the way the final result for the 18th, 19th, and early 20th century departs so dramatically from the ACTUAL means.. If i gave a crap, id love to read that explanantion.... All of that period is plotted BELOW the actual data means...
     
  8. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    the paper gives a description of their method but not the actual code. so far it has not been reverse engineered to account for the odd final results but I am certain that the usual group of statisticians will decipher it presently. perhaps similar errors that were found in Gergis2012 will reappear and this paper will be sent to the zombie zone as well.
     
  9. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    nobody cares.......the hockey stick was proven to be a myth years ago now.
     
  10. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    Skooks- I agree that few people care. but it is exactly this sort of information that the public should be exposed to because it shows how weak the evidence for 'unprecedented' global warming really is. posters like Abe honestly believe that proxy reconstructions are accurate and robust enough to just add instrumental data to, even though they are two different types of data. he is not alone, the world has been conditioned to accept this type of misdirection since Mann98.
     

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