The “Jobless and Wageless” Recovery from the Great Recession of 2007- 2009

[rdean]

The “Jobless and Wageless” Recovery
from the Great Recession of 2007-
2009: The Magnitude and Sources of
Economic Growth Through 2011 I and
Their Impacts on Workers, Profits, and
Stock Values


To date, through the first quarter of 2011, the nation’s recovery from the 2007-2009
recession is both a jobless and a wageless recovery. Aggregate employment still has not
increased above the trough quarter of 2009, and real hourly and weekly wages have been flat to
modestly negative. The only major beneficiaries of the recovery have been corporate profits and
the stock market and its shareholders. Most holders of savings and money market accounts also
are net losers due to declining real interest rates which have been in negative territory for many
interest bearing and money market accounts.

http://www.clms.neu.edu/publication/documents/Revised_Corporate_Report_May_27th.pdf

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A very good outline of the Last Great Recession. Hmmm, what policies are to blame?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

What policies? We could go all the way back to the creation of the fed, Bill Clinton and the Rs giving China the most favored nation status, perhaps bailouts that O and Bush pushed through? I'm quite confident that you'll lay it all at the hands of the Rs though.

 

[uscitizen]

Working wages have been stagnant for a decade or so once you figure in inflation.
I am not talking about averageincome which is skewed by a handful fo superlarge salaries and bonuses, but avg working class wages.

 

[DontBeStupid]

It's proof positive that "trickle down" doesn't work.

 

[uscitizen]

Ohh it trickles down but not as fast as it is sucked up.

 

[uscitizen]

Trickle down works really well most just do not understand how it is a major reason why our standard of living trickles downward.

 

[waltky]

Where's dat recovery Obama said health care was key to?...

The no-jobs economy: Why isn't the US recovery stronger?
July 10, 2011 : Failure to reach at least a modest debt deal could signal to investors that the US government is in a state of chaos and uncertainty. That could make the nation's jobs problem still worse.

The US economy generated only 18,000 new jobs in June, so few that the Labor Department on Friday described the nation's job count as "essentially unchanged." Why is the job market so weak? Is the economy at risk of a new recession? Those questions loom large as President Obama and congressional leaders seek a deal to raise the limit on federal debt, while also restraining future deficits. Their stated goal is to put the government's own finances on sounder footing, but that issue is inextricably linked to the larger economy. "The economy has to support the government," says Peter Schiff, who heads the investment firm Euro Pacific Capital in Westport, Conn. "If consumers are broke ... then government is broke."

At present, consumers aren't quite broke, but they certainly aren't feeling flush with cash either. A few days ago, Discover Financial Services announced that its "spending monitor" survey for June showed a significant slide in consumer confidence. Nearly 56 percent of adults said the economy is getting worse, up from about 51 percent in May and 40 percent in January. The survey also found a majority saying their own personal finances are worsening, although only 17 percent said they expect to reduce their spending in July.

The consensus view among professional forecasters is that the economy will pick up some speed in the second half of the year and avoid a recession. But some believe a recession is very possible, even probable, by next year. "The problem with a slow-growth economy that is basically at stall speed is, if there is any type of ... shock, the economy can easily tip over into recession," investment adviser John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, wrote in a recent newsletter.

One worry, for example, is that a cooling in the European economy, linked to the burden of a public-debt crisis in nations like Greece, could have negative ripple effects worldwide. For the US, the patch of economic weakness comes two years after a deep recession officially ended, leaving unemployment today at 9.2 percent of the work force. The challenge involves a mix of forces.

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[bripat9643]

It's proof positive that "trickle down" doesn't work.

Did your knee jerk when you posted that?

 

[bripat9643]

Trickle down works really well most just do not understand how it is a major reason why our standard of living trickles downward.

Obama's trickle up poverty also works really well.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Did your knee jerk when you posted that?

Obama's trickle up poverty also works really well.

Do you ever post anything on topic, relevant, factual, or not a personal attack.

Otherwise see someone about your anger issues.

 

[whitehall]

Before you "blame Bush" you need to consider that Fannie Mae failed under a democrat majority. As a matter of fact the democrat chairman of the House Banking Committee lied to Americans saying Fannie was fine just before the collapse. Barney dug himself deeper when he tried to explain why he lied by saying he had "ideological blinders on". The meaning is clear. Frank let Fannie go under to sabotage the Bush presidency. Barry had a totally free ride for two years with the cooperation of the media and both houses of congress. What did he accomplish? Cash for Clunkers? What a laugh. The smirking jerk even joked at the expense of milions of unemployed Americans when he said "the shovel ready jobs weren't as shovel ready as we thought". Yuk Yuk? Barney Frank should be indicted and Barry should be held responsible for the squandering of trillions of dollars of taxpayer funds.

 

[uscitizen]

The median hourly paid worker is making the same or slightly less than they were in 1969 once inflation is figured in.
Trickle down, yeah...
The trickle down of our lifestyle.

 

[waltky]

Granny says the recovery burns while dem politicians fiddle...

US economic growth slows, says Federal Reserve
27 July 2011 - US economic growth has slowed in recent weeks due to ongoing troubles in the housing and labour markets, a report from the Federal Reserve suggests.

"Economic activity continued to grow; however, the pace has moderated in many districts," the Fed said in its influential Beige Book. Earlier, figures showed new orders for US big manufactured goods fell in June. Together with ongoing concerns about the US debt ceiling, the figures helped push US markets sharply lower. The main Dow Jones index fell 199 points, or 1.6%, to 12,303, dragging European markets down with it. US lawmakers are currently at a stand-off in negotiations to raise the government debt ceiling.

Consumer spending

The Fed said residential property activity was "little changed and remained weak", while employment conditions "remained soft". Severe flooding and droughts had also hit the agriculture sector, it said. However, the Fed did say that consumer spending and manufacturing activity had increased overall. The Beige Book, compiled eight times a year and used to help set interest rates, is based on a survey of business views from around the US.
Orders slump

Earlier, figures showed that new orders for US manufactured goods fell in June due to a sharp drop in transport equipment and, in particular, civil aircraft. Orders for so-called durable goods fell by $4bn (£2.4bn) or 2.1% to $192bn in the month, the Commerce Department said. An 8.5% or $4.2bn fall in transport goods orders accounted for the drop. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts slumped by almost 30%, while those for defence planes and parts fell 20%. Excluding transport, new orders rose by 1%.

June is the second month in the past three months that durable goods orders have fallen, with analysts pointing to the disruption in supply chains caused by March's earthquake and tsunami in Japan as one cause. Uncertainty over the outlook for the US economy is another, they say. "We're getting confirmation that this is more than just a soft patch in the first part of the year, that it's a more fundamental slowdown triggered in part by the political environment and jittery markets," said Michelle Meyer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

BBC News - US economic growth slows, says Federal Reserve

 

[waltky]

Granny not sellin' as many apples onna street corner as she used to...

Economy growing at slowest pace since recession
Jul 29,`11 WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy likely grew in the first half of the year at the slowest pace since the recession ended, and the second half isn't looking much better.

Weak consumer spending, dismal hiring and cuts in government spending likely held back growth in the April-June quarter. The government will report on second-quarter growth on Friday. Economists forecast the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, according to a FactSet survey. That follows a 1.9 percent growth rate in the first three months of the year. Those are the slowest back-to-back quarters since the economy began recovering from the recession two years ago.

Even if the economy picks up later this year, growth in 2011 will likely be slower than the 2.9 percent expansion last year. Economists at RBC Capital Markets, for example, forecast growth of 2.3 percent this year. Complicating an already-weak economy is the debt crisis in Washington. No matter what lawmakers do to resolve that crisis, their decision will likely slow growth in the short term. A deal to raise the borrowing limit would likely include long-term spending cuts, which would withdraw government stimulus at a precarious time. If Congress fails to raise the borrowing limit and the government defaults on its debt, financial markets could fall and interest rates could rise.

Most economists expect growth to pick up slightly in the second half of the year, as the impact of high gas prices and supply disruptions stemming from Japan's March 11 earthquake ease. But growth won't be strong enough to lower the unemployment rate, now 9.2 percent. "We're starting off the quarter in weaker shape than we thought," said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight. Gault notes that data for June showed little growth in retail sales, factory output and hiring.

Gault said he expects growth of less than 3 percent in the July-September quarter. That's down from his earlier forecast of 3.4 percent. Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase project third-quarter growth of only 2.5 percent. That's barely enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The economy needs to expand at a 5 percent pace to make a significant dent in unemployment.

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[Si modo]

What recovery?