The 'Investor Class' Beyond the SS Debate

[Annie]

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110006425

BEYOND THE NEW DEAL
Investors for Bush
How Social Security reform can bring about a Republican realignment.

BY JOHN ZOGBY
Tuesday, March 15, 2005 12:01 a.m.

President Bush is in the middle of a vigorous campaign for Social Security reform. New national polls suggest support for his reform plan to be slipping. While my polls have revealed solid majority support among voters under 50 years of age, intensity levels are far greater among voters who oppose Mr. Bush's plan, especially those over 50. A coalition of seniors, unions, and anti-Bush independent committees are bent on defeating the president, who can claim just one Democratic member of Congress among his supporters, and whose Republicans in Congress are at best tepid on the idea of personal accounts.

Why would the president risk his political capital on a plan that appears doomed to failure? I think the answer lies well beyond the politics of any single reform plan. And the president may end up a winner if his call for personal accounts ultimately fails. After all, he has raised a serious issue that needs attention--the very solvency of Social Security--which Democrats have never touched. Huge majorities of voters understand that the current system is in trouble. He will, at the very least, get credit for trying to reform the program previously referred to as the "third rail of American politics"--even if he achieves more modest change than he now proposes.

But there is a much bigger picture. The president's real prize would be a significant realignment in party politics. It has been no secret that Mr. Bush and Karl Rove have their sights set on a political realignment not experienced since FDR built a coalition of urban ethnics, liberal ideologues and Southern conservatives under the Democrats' big tent. Like the New Deal, the president's "ownership society" is a compelling new vision and veritable redefinition of a society less dependent on government largess, of a middle class more independent and more capable of securing financial security on its own.

This stunning realignment is possible by virtue of a new class of American voters--the self-identified "investor class"--which is itself a coalition across a broad spectrum of demographic groups. In their compelling book, "The Emerging Democratic Majority," Ruy Texeira and John Judis outlined a short-term path for Democratic Party success. Their study revealed that key demographic groups that traditionally vote Democratic in national and state elections are indeed among the fastest growing demographics in American society: African Americans, Hispanics, women, singles, creatives, Muslims, and South Asians.

Data from my post-election polling in 2004 suggests that the story is more complicated than simply counting bodies and handing them voter registration forms upon achieving adulthood or citizenship. Indeed, understanding politics in the U.S. over the next few years and decades has a lot more to do with grasping how voters actually identify themselves, not the labels we usually place on them by virtue of their birth.

Zogby International's post-election polling reveals fascinating differences between those voters who call themselves members of the "investor class" and those who do not see themselves this way. We see the table below how this response to a single question--"Do you consider yourself to be a member of the investor class?"--is a far greater determinant of how they will vote and how they see their world than income, religion, race, marital status, or size of individual portfolio.



Investors Noninvestors
Bush Kerry Bush Kerry
All voters 61% 39% 42% 57%
Union members 57% 42% 36% 63%
18-29 years old 52% 47% 30% 67%
Women 55% 45% 37% 63%
Hispanics 60% 37% 43% 56%
$50-75K income 64% 36% 45% 55%
Single 45% 53% 25% 73%

On the surface this hardly seems worthy of attention. Of course, well-heeled investors will tend to be more conservative than underachieving non-investors. But a closer look at the profile of this new "investor class" suggests some tectonic shifts in how Americans see themselves and how they behave politically. These are remarkable voting differences. The numbers are no less dramatic when we see their views of the president and the major issues in the campaign.

Self-identified investors comprised 46% of the total vote in 2004, a significantly higher figure than pre-election polls suggested. The group is neither dominated by the wealthy nor do members necessarily aspire to become wealthy. According to a series of polls we did on behalf of PBS's "Wall Street Week with Fortune," this group tells us they simply are saving for a retirement that maintains their current lifestyle and for college for their children. Importantly, their worldview remains middle class, modest, and basically conservative. They are a group I have followed closely since 2000 and will, for obvious reasons, continue to watch.

To the president and Republicans: You may lose the battle over Social Security personal accounts, but ultimately you may very well win the war over party realignment. To the Democrats: Just saying no is not a policy and demographics are not destiny. Ignore the "ownership society" at your own peril.