The Hidden Demographic Shifts That Are Sinking The Republican Party

[guno]

Most people have gotten the sense that rising diversity is making life hard for the Republican Party; ditto for the rise of the notably progressive Millennial generation. But there’s a lot more to American demographics than that — and it turns out that some of the lesser-discussed demographic patterns are likely to do quite a bit of damage to Republicans’ electoral fortunes as well.

First, look at where Republicans and Democrats tend to live. David Jarman took a detailed look recently, with great charts and interactive maps, at the relative growth in Democratic and Republican votes in the nation’s 3,144 counties between 1988 and 2012. For each county, Jarman calculates the net change in Democratic votes (increase in Democratic votes minus increase in Republican votes) over that time period.


The results are fascinating for how much and where growth is benefiting Democrats and Republicans. Start with the Democrats. The 25 top counties for net Democratic vote gain include many of the most populous counties in the country. They include Los Angeles at the top, eight of the ten most populous (LA, plus Cook [Chicago], San Diego and Orange [CA], Dallas, Kings [Brooklyn], Queens and Miami-Dade) and 15 of the top 25 most populous. The rest, without exception, are large counties that include a major city or are urbanized inner suburbs of a major city. The magnitude of Democratic gains in the top 25 ranges from 1.2 million in LA down to around 140,000.

The top gainers for the GOP, in contrast, tend to be in much smaller counties on the periphery of metropolitan areas (“exurbs”). The top 25 GOP gainers include no county in the US top 25 in population and include only one in the top 50. And the magnitude of GOP gains in the top 25 is much smaller than those enjoyed by the Democrats. Indeed, the largest GOP net gain of all—90,000 in Provo county, Utah–is not only smaller than the 25th ranked gain for the Democrats (140,000) but also smaller than Democratic gains all the way down to the 61st ranked Democratic gainer county.

Democratic strength in dense areas is clearly one reason for the Democrats’ increasing electoral potency, particularly in Presidential elections. Conversely, the concentration of GOP gains in more lightly-populated areas limits their strength now and in the future.

The Hidden Demographic Shifts That Are Sinking The Republican Party | ThinkProgress

 

[JimBowie1958]

complete and utter bullshit that assumes that 1) Hispanics keep having so many babies, 2) that we do not get control of our immigration system, and 3) that Hispanics wont eventually assimilate and regard themselves as white as any Italian, Jew, Irishman or German.

Demographic trends can change and this projection you references is so flawed with presumption and assumption it is ridiculous.

 

[Mad Scientist]

So that means if the Senate goes Republican in November then either there is less enthusiasm for Dems or more Minorities are voting Republican or 3rd Party.

Which is it?

 

[JimBowie1958]

So that means if the Senate goes Republican in November then either there is less enthusiasm for Dems or more Minorities are voting Republican or 3rd Party.

Which is it?

I guess we wont know till the election.

But there isn't necessarily a growing demographic that spells the doom of the GOP unless it morphs into Democrats Lite.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So that means if the Senate goes Republican in November then either there is less enthusiasm for Dems or more Minorities are voting Republican or 3rd Party.

Which is it?

Neither - nor.

Mid-Terms Elections are commonly called "base" elections, with relatively low turnout in comparison to presidential cycles. This is why in almost every single case, the results of a mid-term election have absolutely no correlation to the next presidential election. This is a point I hammered home on this thread, more than once:

Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms, 1855-present | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

So, no, any kind of win in November of 2014 has nothing to say about enthusiasm for DEMS or the voting proclivities of minorities, for the vast MAJORITY of eligible and registered voters will not even show up to the ballot box for a mere "mid-term". That is electoral history, and is unlikely to change in this cycle.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

The hidden demographic shift that only matters if democrats cheat at the polls by allowing illegals to vote.

 

[martybegan]

complete and utter bullshit that assumes that 1) Hispanics keep having so many babies, 2) that we do not get control of our immigration system, and 3) that Hispanics wont eventually assimilate and regard themselves as white as any Italian, Jew, Irishman or German.

Demographic trends can change and this projection you references is so flawed with presumption and assumption it is ridiculous.

It also ignores the classic line "anyone who is under 30 that isn't a liberal has not heart, and anyone over 30 who isn't a conservative has no brain"

Social issues aside, once the Millennials realize how much the past generations have passed on to them in terms of debt and future obligations, their voting trajectory may change suddenly, and abruptly.