320 Years of History
Gold Member
Nobody wants to eliminate one's ability to exercise their 2nd Amendment right. Sane folks who want to see gun-caused deaths ended or reduced in number and frequency have been very clear about that. One thing folks in that camp want to do is curtail the instances of seemingly "okay to own a gun" folks exercising that right and then abusing it by shooting another individual, or threatening them with being shot.
Donald Wayne Bricker, Jr., who pled guilty to shooting his ex-girlfriend, provides an archetypal example of one sort of individual whom I have in mind and who should never have been able to acquire so much as water gun, let alone one that could be used to morally shoot someone.
The above data makes clear that identifying effective and equitable means for dramatically reducing the availability of guns to folks who have nefarious intentions for their use is well worth pursuing. But just how does the supply chain for guns work? How does one interdict transactions and processes in that supply chain that enable current and would be nefarious gun users/abusers from getting hold of a firearm?
According to Dr. Phillip Cook, a professor of public policy at Duke University:
Based on the above information, two things are quite clear to me:
A material percentage of the guns used in criminal activity are purchased legally, purchased by people who, prior to abusing their gun (gun right), demonstrated no justifiable reason why they should not have been denied the ability to exercise their 2nd Amendment right.- "By definition, stolen guns are available to criminals. The FBI's National Crime Information Center (NCIC) stolen gun file contains over 2 million reports; 60% are reports of stolen handguns."
- "Stolen guns account for only about 10% to 15% of guns used in crimes."
- "In 2014, ATF traced the source of over 170,000 guns used in crimes in the U.S. And well over a quarter of them -- 28 percent -- were used to commit crimes in a state other than the one they were purchased in."
- "The picture is somewhat different here. West Virginia becomes the biggest exporter of crime guns at the per-capita level, with 52 crime guns per every 100,000 residents. Alaska and Mississippi also rank highly, as do a number of states in the south and mountain west. States with stricter gun laws, like New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, on the other hand, export relatively few crime guns on a per-capita basis."
- [T]he majority of crime guns in ATF's data -- 72 percent of them -- were purchased in-state.
- it is rare for the people who provide these guns to the eventual shooters to face any legal consequences.
Donald Wayne Bricker, Jr., who pled guilty to shooting his ex-girlfriend, provides an archetypal example of one sort of individual whom I have in mind and who should never have been able to acquire so much as water gun, let alone one that could be used to morally shoot someone.
Donald Wayne Bricker Jr., [a convicted sex offender,] was denied bail after prosecutors told the judge that the gun that Bricker used to allegedly shoot and kill Mariam Folashade Adebayo in the parking lot of the Target store in Germantown had arrived in the mail to his home only that morning. [Senior Assistant State’s Attorney Deborah W.]Feinstein told the court that Bricker had previously purchased 100 rounds of ammunition for the antique and practiced firing it at least once before going to meet Adebayo in the parking lot on Monday evening.
[Senior Assistant State’s Attorney Deborah W.] Feinstein further outlined that violent nature of Bricker telling the court that the gun which Bricker is said to have used had arrived in the mail at his residence in Hagerstown on the morning of the day of the murder. She said that because Bricker, a convicted sex offender and could not legally purchase a firearm, use a loophole in the law to order a replica antique “black powder” gun online and had it delivered through the mail. The purchase of antique firearms and replicas of antique guns is not regulated.
[Senior Assistant State’s Attorney Deborah W.] Feinstein further outlined that violent nature of Bricker telling the court that the gun which Bricker is said to have used had arrived in the mail at his residence in Hagerstown on the morning of the day of the murder. She said that because Bricker, a convicted sex offender and could not legally purchase a firearm, use a loophole in the law to order a replica antique “black powder” gun online and had it delivered through the mail. The purchase of antique firearms and replicas of antique guns is not regulated.
The above data makes clear that identifying effective and equitable means for dramatically reducing the availability of guns to folks who have nefarious intentions for their use is well worth pursuing. But just how does the supply chain for guns work? How does one interdict transactions and processes in that supply chain that enable current and would be nefarious gun users/abusers from getting hold of a firearm?
According to Dr. Phillip Cook, a professor of public policy at Duke University:
While criminals typically do not buy their guns at a store, all but a tiny fraction of the guns in circulation in the United States are first sold at retail by a gun dealer—including the guns that eventually end up in the hands of criminals. That first retail sale was most likely legal, in that the clerk followed federal and state requirements for documentation, a background check and record-keeping. While there are scofflaw dealers who sometimes make under-the-counter deals, that is by no means the norm.
If a gun ends up in criminal use, it is usually after several more transactions. The average age of guns taken from Chicago gangs is over 11 years. The gun at that point has been diverted from legal commerce. In this respect, the supply chain for guns is similar to the supply chain for other products that have a large legal market but are subject to diversion. In the case of guns, diversion from licit possession and exchange can occur in a variety of ways: theft, purchase at a gun show by an interstate trafficker, private sales where no questions are asked, straw purchases by girlfriends and so forth.
What appears to be true is that there are few big operators in this domain. The typical trafficker or underground broker is not making a living that way, but rather just making a few dollars on the side. The supply chain for guns used in crime bears little relationship to the supply chain for heroin or cocaine and is much more akin to the supply chain for cigarettes and beer that are diverted to underage teenagers.
There have been few attempts to estimate the scope or scale of the underground market, in part because it is not at all clear what types of transactions should be included in that market. But for the sake of having some order-of-magnitude estimate, suppose we just focus on the number of transactions each year that supply the guns actually used in robbery or assault.
There are about 500,000 violent crimes committed with a gun each year. If the average number of times that an offender commits a robbery or assault with a particular gun is twice, then (assuming patterns of criminal gun use remain constant) the total number of transactions of concern is 250,000 per year.
Actually no one knows the average number of times a specific gun is used by an offender who uses it at least once. If it is more than twice, then there are even fewer relevant transactions. That compares with total sales volume by licensed dealers, which is upwards of 20 million per year.
All in the family
So how do gang members, violent criminals, underage youths and other dangerous people get their guns?
A consistent answer emerges from the inmate surveys and from ethnographic studies. Whether guns that end up being used in crime are purchased, swapped, borrowed, shared or stolen, the most likely source is someone known to the offender, an acquaintance or family member. That Farook’s friend and neighbor was the source of two of his guns is quite typical, despite the unique circumstances otherwise.
Also important are “street” sources, such as gang members and drug dealers, which may also entail a prior relationship. Thus, social networks are playing an important role in facilitating transactions, and an individual (such as a gang member) who tends to hang out with people who have guns will find it relatively easy to obtain one.
Effective policing of the underground gun market could help to separate guns from everyday violent crime. Currently it is rare for those who provide guns to offenders to face any legal consequences, and changing that situation will require additional resources directed to a proactive enforcement directed at penetrating the social networks of gun offenders. Needless to say, that effort is not cheap or easy and requires that both the police and the courts have the necessary authority and give this sort of gun enforcement high priority.
It appears that the extraordinarily intense investigation of the San Bernardino shootings has succeeded in identifying the individual in Farook’s social network who provided him with the assault weapons. The fact that Enrique Marquez is likely to pay a price may help discourage such perverse neighborliness in the future.
If a gun ends up in criminal use, it is usually after several more transactions. The average age of guns taken from Chicago gangs is over 11 years. The gun at that point has been diverted from legal commerce. In this respect, the supply chain for guns is similar to the supply chain for other products that have a large legal market but are subject to diversion. In the case of guns, diversion from licit possession and exchange can occur in a variety of ways: theft, purchase at a gun show by an interstate trafficker, private sales where no questions are asked, straw purchases by girlfriends and so forth.
What appears to be true is that there are few big operators in this domain. The typical trafficker or underground broker is not making a living that way, but rather just making a few dollars on the side. The supply chain for guns used in crime bears little relationship to the supply chain for heroin or cocaine and is much more akin to the supply chain for cigarettes and beer that are diverted to underage teenagers.
There have been few attempts to estimate the scope or scale of the underground market, in part because it is not at all clear what types of transactions should be included in that market. But for the sake of having some order-of-magnitude estimate, suppose we just focus on the number of transactions each year that supply the guns actually used in robbery or assault.
There are about 500,000 violent crimes committed with a gun each year. If the average number of times that an offender commits a robbery or assault with a particular gun is twice, then (assuming patterns of criminal gun use remain constant) the total number of transactions of concern is 250,000 per year.
Actually no one knows the average number of times a specific gun is used by an offender who uses it at least once. If it is more than twice, then there are even fewer relevant transactions. That compares with total sales volume by licensed dealers, which is upwards of 20 million per year.
All in the family
So how do gang members, violent criminals, underage youths and other dangerous people get their guns?
A consistent answer emerges from the inmate surveys and from ethnographic studies. Whether guns that end up being used in crime are purchased, swapped, borrowed, shared or stolen, the most likely source is someone known to the offender, an acquaintance or family member. That Farook’s friend and neighbor was the source of two of his guns is quite typical, despite the unique circumstances otherwise.
Also important are “street” sources, such as gang members and drug dealers, which may also entail a prior relationship. Thus, social networks are playing an important role in facilitating transactions, and an individual (such as a gang member) who tends to hang out with people who have guns will find it relatively easy to obtain one.
Effective policing of the underground gun market could help to separate guns from everyday violent crime. Currently it is rare for those who provide guns to offenders to face any legal consequences, and changing that situation will require additional resources directed to a proactive enforcement directed at penetrating the social networks of gun offenders. Needless to say, that effort is not cheap or easy and requires that both the police and the courts have the necessary authority and give this sort of gun enforcement high priority.
It appears that the extraordinarily intense investigation of the San Bernardino shootings has succeeded in identifying the individual in Farook’s social network who provided him with the assault weapons. The fact that Enrique Marquez is likely to pay a price may help discourage such perverse neighborliness in the future.
Based on the above information, two things are quite clear to me:
- The supply chain individuals, those who have no business obtaining a firearm, may use to obtain a firearm need to be eliminated, or at least broken at the point whereby those persons obtain their access to guns.
- Something needs to be done to make more facile prosecutors' efforts to bring to justice "okay to buy guns" folks who abet gun abusers in their quest to obtain firearms.
