The GOP Turnout Myth

[Toro]

To win the next presidential race, the GOP will have to understand what went wrong in 2012. To do that, they've got to come to grips with what did, and did not, happen with turnout.

Even as Republicans have engaged in some agonizing over their candidate and agenda, many have sought comfort in the notion that a big part of the loss came down to simple mechanics. President Obama had a stunning Election Day operation, which turned out his base. Mitt Romney's shop, by contrast, failed to get people to the polls. That explanation is soothing because it suggests that, in the future, all the GOP needs is a slicker piece of get-out-the-vote software.

It's also broadly wrong.

The turnout myth comes from a statistic that has been endlessly repeated: Mitt Romney got fewer votes than John McCain in 2008. This isn't quite true (Mr. Romney this week eked past the McCain totals), and in any event it is somewhat irrelevant. The Romney vote count reflects a nationwide voter turnout that was down nearly five percentage points from 2008. What matters is how the GOP did in the battleground states.

And there? Mr. Romney beat Mr. McCain's numbers in every single battleground, save Ohio. In some cases, his improvement was significant. In Virginia, 65,000 more votes than in 2008. In Florida, 117,000 more votes. In Colorado, 52,000. In Wisconsin, 146,000. Moreover, in key states like Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, Mr. Romney turned out even more voters than George W. Bush did in his successful re-election in 2004.

By contrast, Mr. Obama's turnout was down from 2008 in nearly every battleground. He lost 54,000 votes in Virginia, 46,000 votes in Florida, 50,000 votes in Colorado, 63,000 votes in Wisconsin. Ditto Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio. The only state where Mr. Obama increased his votes (by 36,000) was North Carolina, and he was still beaten by a Romney campaign that raised its own turnout by a whopping 147,000. ...

Strassel: The GOP Turnout Myth - WSJ.com

 

[tyroneweaver]

i can see why you dems keep focusing on the presidential race. Ya got pretty much smashed everywhere else.

 

[Rocko]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

 

[g5000]

i can see why you dems keep focusing on the presidential race. Ya got pretty much smashed everywhere else.

Democrats picked up seats in the Senate and House, kept the White House, and gained supermajorities in several state legislatures. In addition, gay marriage proponents won in all four states the issue was on the ballot, and pot was legalized in two states.

This is your idea of "smashed everywhere else"?

.

 

[AmyNation]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

 

[g5000]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

It might be a good time to ask yourself why it is the darkies vote Democratic.

Hint: It ain't because of the gifts. The answer is in your post.

.

 

[Wacky Quacky]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

That hod nothing to do with Obama winning. His overall turnout was 5 million less than in 2008, whereas Romney had roughly the same turnout as McCain.

The sooner Republicans stop blaming everything under the sun except their party, the sooner they can start to turn their party around.

 

[Rocko]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

It might be a good time to ask yourself why it is the darkies vote Democratic.

Hint: It ain't because of the gifts. The answer is in your post.

.

What? Blacks, obviously, tend to vote Democrat, and that has nothing to do with what I posted. I'm being honest.

I don't the exact reason why blacks do vote Democrat, I think there are probably many reasons. Some of them vote for free stuff, just like some whites.

 

[Rocko]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

All I'm saying is the more blacks that vote, the harder it is for Republicans to win. What's wrong with saying that? It's the truth isn't it?

 

[Wacky Quacky]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

All I'm saying is the more blacks that vote, the harder it is for Republicans to win. What's wrong with saying that? It's the truth isn't it?

Statements like that are why the GOP is losing.

 

[Rocko]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

That hod nothing to do with Obama winning. His overall turnout was 5 million less than in 2008, whereas Romney had roughly the same turnout as McCain.

The sooner Republicans stop blaming everything under the sun except their party, the sooner they can start to turn their party around.

From the link.

In Florida, 238,000 more Hispanics voted than in 2008, and Mr. Obama got 60% of Hispanic voters. His total margin of victory in Florida was 78,000 votes, so that demographic alone won it for him. Or consider Ohio, where Mr. Romney won independents by 10 points. The lead mattered little, though, given that black turnout increased by 178,000 votes, and the president won 96% of the black vote. Mr. Obama's margin of victory there was 103,000.

 

[blackhawk]

You guy's can argue the 2008 vs 2012 turnout numbers all day and night it really doesn't matter the simple truth is Obama just did a better job of getting his message out especially in the last week or so of the election and rallying his base.

 

[AmyNation]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

All I'm saying is the more blacks that vote, the harder it is for Republicans to win. What's wrong with saying that? It's the truth isn't it?

No one was dragged to the polls. There was no Obama bus chugging through the ghettos picking bums up off the street.

I've seen lots of posts recently where people are bemoaning the minority vote. "Obama won because of blacks" "it's all the Hispanics".

Not only is talk like that unproductive, but it implies that they are somehow doing something wrong, as if black and Hispanic Americans have less of a right to vote.

Edit to add- I dont mean you specificly, i do not think you were attempting to suggest that they have less of a right to vote.

 

[rdean]

So basically, the democrats bused in blacks, and Hispanics to vote. That's their "ground game" in a nutshell. Makes them tough to beat. No doubt.

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

All I'm saying is the more blacks that vote, the harder it is for Republicans to win. What's wrong with saying that? It's the truth isn't it?

Not just blacks.

Republicans have pretty much two groups of people. Super rich and middle middle, lower middle and poor whites. Sure, they have a very small smattering of other groups, but the numbers are tiny. Even a few gays.

I've heard estimates that Obama being black might have cost him as much as 5 percentage points.

 

[Rocko]

The colored people are voting! Oh nooos!

All I'm saying is the more blacks that vote, the harder it is for Republicans to win. What's wrong with saying that? It's the truth isn't it?

No one was dragged to the polls. There was no Obama bus chugging through the ghettos picking bums up off the street.

I've seen lots of posts recently where people are bemoaning the minority vote. "Obama won because of blacks" "it's all the Hispanics".

Not only is talk like that unproductive, but it implies that they are somehow doing something wrong, as if black and Hispanic Americans have less of a right to vote.

I'm not in favor of any of these get out the vote programs. I do think it's wrong, to a certain extent. People should vote on their own initiative. I don't believe in pressuring people or enticing people to vote, which is exactly what these groups do. I've seen it myself.

 

[AmyNation]

Many people don't vote because they never have, they don't know where/how to register they dont know the issues, etc etc.

I'm in favor of making voting simple, and if setting up a table in the quad gets more people to register and vote, I'm for that.

The genius of what Obama did wasn't in getting new voters to register, it was a grassroots movement in the battleground states to make sure already registered democrats planned to vote.

He spent a long time and a ton of money, getting local people out there so you weren't just getting a robo call, you were getting a call from Jan who works at your local supermarket, and she didn't just call, but she made sure you had all the information you needed, that you knew where to vote and what the hours were. And you probably got a knock at your door from Jan in the week before the election, to check in and keep you excited about voting.

 

[Dot Com]

i can see why you dems keep focusing on the presidential race. Ya got pretty much smashed everywhere else.

yeah, like the senate

 

[Dot Com]

You guy's can argue the 2008 vs 2012 turnout numbers all day and night it really doesn't matter the simple truth is Obama just did a better job of getting his message out especially in the last week or so of the election and rallying his base.

REALLY? Have you considered that perhaps voters didn't like Romney's same old message of deregulation & tax-cuts & the fact that he gave no particulars on how he was to implement his policies w/o doing more harm to the poor & disappearing middle-class?

 

[Quantum Windbag]

i can see why you dems keep focusing on the presidential race. Ya got pretty much smashed everywhere else.

Democrats picked up seats in the Senate and House, kept the White House, and gained supermajorities in several state legislatures. In addition, gay marriage proponents won in all four states the issue was on the ballot, and pot was legalized in two states.

This is your idea of "smashed everywhere else"?

.

What planet are you on? Republicans are in control in more states than Democrats are. The major exception to that is California, and Democrats there are promising not to raise taxes.

 

[blackhawk]

You guy's can argue the 2008 vs 2012 turnout numbers all day and night it really doesn't matter the simple truth is Obama just did a better job of getting his message out especially in the last week or so of the election and rallying his base.

REALLY? Have you considered that perhaps voters didn't like Romney's same old message of deregulation & tax-cuts & the fact that he gave no particulars on how he was to implement his policies w/o doing more harm to the poor & disappearing middle-class?

Not really given the Obama message was the same thing we heard for his entire first term the results of which were less than stunning and he was no more specific about his plans than Romney was. I will go back to a statement Charles Krauthammer made several months before the election which was you might lose if you don't carry the independents you will lose if you lose your base during the last two elections the Republicans had two candidates who could not inspire and rally the base where Obama could Romney did better than McCain did with the base but in the end Obama just did better I really don't get why so many people have such a hard time accepting this.