The Global Economic Situation.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Mar 21, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Let's start with Great Britain. Britain's economy for centuries has revolved around banking. British banks hold about $4.4 trillion in foreign debt. Some of this is ours. I'm jsut dealing with American Dollars, as comparisons between the Pound and the Euro and all that stuff is confusing.



    Regardless, here are some numbers to look at. The total size of the UK economy is $2.1 trillion. This year, the British government nationalized major parts of the UK's banking system. Republicans call that a strong move toward Socialism. Something that they deplore.



    In total, the UK Treasury is on the hook for over $2 trillion in potential liabilities, according to an estimate by their Office of National Statistics. They are generally pretty accurate about that.



    The government debt of the United Kingdom is only around $950 billion. If we round that to a Trillion, that is considered frugal compared to the United States. That is approximately $15,000 per capita, give or take a thousand. The UK is not absolutely certain what their population is.



    Now, for the United States. In the past few days, the United States Treasury sunk another $30 billion into AIG. I believe that was the fourth bailout with substantial potential for many, many more. Derivatives, you know. The US "People's" Treasury also generously pumped another $25 billion into Citi. How generous of us. Are any of the buffoons who put those companies is such abject condition in Prison where they rightfully belong with Bernie Madoff? I know, I know, nobody really committed a defined crime, other than Madoff, so how do we lock them up? Durned if I know.



    The US People's Treasury is now on the hook for as much as $6 Trillion in liabilities. Last week, the White House produced its newest improvised budget that was still not well thought out. El Presidente Obama wants to run a deficit of $1.75 trillion in 2009. The reality is it is going to be a lot more than that because he has a tremendous Socialist agenda (by Republican standards.)



    As most of us know, the US People's Treasury will pay for these bailouts by borrowing more and more and more money, ad infinitum.


    As I think I understand it, the Treasury borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds and notes. Friday, for example, it auctioned three-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. This latest impromptu auction raised around $60 billion. Small change considering where we have been going economically. What a long strange trip it's been!



    Present American Government Debt is $11 trillion. To pay off this debt tomorrow, the government would have to collect $36,000 from every American. Tomorrow, is Sunday. We will have to put it off until Monday. The government doesn't do much on Sunday.

    The state of California is now issuing bonds and...... Well, let's not go there. One strange trip is enough.



    Now, let's look at Japan. It has been in and out of a lingering recession for about 20 years. In Japan they call the 1990's the lost decade. Actually, they should just list the last two decades as lost.



    Japan has been the perfect example of out of control bailout programs. It has plowed trillions into its banking system over the past two decades. Their total debt is $7.8 trillion. ($157,000 per capita.)



    Per Capita comparisons have some validity, but if you compare the National Debt to Gross Domestic Product. The UK has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%. The U.S. has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%. Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 187%.



    We are all in trouble, but Japan is in the most trouble.



    So what happens? Based upon normal considerations, Japan is close to bankruptcy. We know that can happen to Iceland, but Japan???



    When nations (like Germany in the Post World War One era) are that much in debt, their currencies are quite often allowed to inflate. So, will we see the Yen lose half or three quarters of its value? If we allowed that to happen, we could buy brand new Japanese cars for about the cost of a used 2005 Nissan today. Wow!



    Darn good deal. Bring it on! Unfortunately, we can not allow that, or the American auto industry would totally collapse. The same conditions apply to all of the in-debt countries of the world that have a manufacturing capacity. They can not let their currencies inflate less than their competition. What a conundrum!



    If we are all going into debt (As, indeed, we are!), my understanding of history tells me that we are right back to where we were when FDR was president, and the American People realized that we were going into debt, but since we owed it to outselves, it couldn't be that bad. Isn't that it?



    If the Fed can buy our debt as they have done recently, and the Government does not have to pay interest on that debt to the Fed (The Fed just deposits it into the Treasury, so effectively, we do not pay it.), then why not have the Fed buy all of our debt?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2009
  2. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    This bailout is doing one thing, Nu..it's saving the BOND purchasers and by doing so saving the banks from insolvency.

    And the fact that Americans who will be paying this bill recieved NONE of the profits when this house of cards was still intact does tend to make me see red.

    You see...if we allowed the banks to ALL FAIL, then we could NOT reconstitute the FIXED GAME OF CAPITALISM we'vehad in place for quite a long time.

    Everyone who took RISK (and got paid handomely for taking that risk) gets off scot free, while those of us who gained nothing from these games, get the bill.

    The INHERENT LIE that our economy had evolved into, has finally OUTED.

    Naturally nobody on top of the heap is willing to admit what a crooked game our economy is based on because it served them (and continues to serve them) so well.

    I think most of us sense that the game is crooked, regardless of whether we are liberal or conservative, don't we?

    As to Iceland?

    That situation is totally freaking nuts.

    Essantially is was a wholesale FRAUD perpetrated by people who quite literally have NO BANKING OR FINANCE EXPERIENCE whatever.

    They inflated the value of assets they had by buying them and selling them to each other, then based on those insane prices, their banks borrowed or lent money based on that total lie.

    Japan, I don't understand so well.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2009
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    I sense and share your frustration. But what the heck, I am just one of the 6.4 Billion people (peons) in this world, who, once I have passed, few will remember. Eventually, it will not matter.
     
  4. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    japan's problem is they really never recovered from the "lost decade." they rely heavily on exports and with our economy and europe's economy the way it is nobody wants to buy their goods. iceland took a gamble and got burned badly.
     
  5. neurosport
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    neurosport BANNED

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    FDR would have simply burned the houses down until half the people had nowhere to sleep in order to boost values of remaining housing.
     

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