The Flawed Afghanistan Strategy

Discussion in 'Afghanistan' started by PoliticalChic, Oct 9, 2010.

  1. PoliticalChic
    Offline

    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2008
    Messages:
    55,878
    Thanks Received:
    15,686
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
    Ratings:
    +25,029
    Dr. Michael Rubin was interviewed on Bill Bennett Show, October 7, 2010
    His major research area is the Middle East, with special focus on Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdish society. He also writes frequently on transformative diplomacy and governance issues. At AEI, Mr. Rubin chaired the "Dissent and Reform in the Arab World" conference series.
    This is what he said:

    1. As a result of the Obama Administration voicing a timeline, and a point at which American troops will leave Afghanistan, President Karzai has been said to be negotiating with the Taliban…

    a. Karzai is concerned that President Obama’s anxiousness to flee from what he once called the good war, will entail the a deal with Pakistan that will ‘sell out’ his country and his presidency.

    b. The U.S. needs to send supplies through Pakistan, and is therefore, giving Pakistan a ‘seat at the table’ involving any negotiations with the Taliban. It must not be forgotten that the Pakistani ISI created and supported the Taliban.

    c. Karzai sees the necessity of making his own deal. A Karzai deal with the Taliban will not leave Afghanistan as a secure American ally.

    2. Dr. Rubin explained the long-standing antipathy between Pakistan and Afghanistan:

    a. 1919- Afghanistan invaded what is now Pakistan
    b. 1947- Afghanistan voted against letting Pakistan into the UN.
    c. Between 1951-1961, Afghanistan sent troops into Pakistan several time.

    3. History is a narrative through which ordinary people interpret events. The history of Afghanistan casts the negotiations proposed by the Obama Administration into a far different scenario than that believed by the administration.

    a. In the Anglo-Afghan War of 1842, the British military occupation of Kabul was in support of a weak ruler, Shuja Shah Durrani, against the emir of Afghanistan, Dost Muhammad.

    b. Deciding to evacuate, negotiations produced an agreement that provided for the safe exodus of the British garrison and its dependants from Afghanistan. Five days later, the withdrawal began. The departing British contingent numbered around 16,000. Men, women and children. They were massacred as they marched. One Brit reached Jalalabad.
    So much for ‘negotiations.’

    4. This history is what most Afghanis view as negotiations, and not understanding this history is why the Obama Administration is making a huge mistake.

    a. The Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, has proclaimed, “I am Dost Muhammad, Karzain is Shuja Shah.” And, of course, this makes General Petraeus the British general, Elphinstone.

    b. In the West, negotiations means the pacification of the Irish Republican Army, or the compromises with the former Baathists of Iraq.

    c. Perception is more important than reality: negotiations, in Afghanistan, are seen as weakness.

    5. The Pakistani ISI advises that engagement with the Taliban is based on a false idea that the Taliban is there for some cynical reasons, and can be bought off or compromised with. Wrong. Islamist ideology must never be allowed to believe they are winning.

    As I see it, President Reagan's foreign policy is both succinct and correct: "We win, they lose."
     
  2. Revere
    Offline

    Revere BANNED

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2010
    Messages:
    7,427
    Thanks Received:
    415
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Watching you in my profile page
    Ratings:
    +415
    This is the war Obama campaigned on fighting. It's his baby.

    And he has already said it's not his stated purpose to win.
     
  3. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    The "flaw" happened at the inception of the conflict. Although I didn't agree with the action, Panama should have been the role model for Afghanistan. Set very clear and limited goals. Execute them. And get the heck out of Dodge.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  4. logical4u
    Offline

    logical4u citizen

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2009
    Messages:
    6,111
    Thanks Received:
    543
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Georgia
    Ratings:
    +543
    This war (against islamic extremist) will take forever or until the west is defeated if the followers of islam do not seperate the spiritual from the political.
     
  5. Revere
    Offline

    Revere BANNED

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2010
    Messages:
    7,427
    Thanks Received:
    415
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Watching you in my profile page
    Ratings:
    +415
    Carter gave away Panama.
     
  6. Bill Angel
    Offline

    Bill Angel Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2010
    Messages:
    1,109
    Thanks Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Location:
    Baltimore Maryland
    Ratings:
    +243
    The US rationale for invading Afghanistan was that it was a refuge and staging area for Al Qaeda.
    Any Afghan government that ensures that Al Qaeda activity is supressed would meet the basic national security requirements of the USA, irrespective of its composition.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  7. Flopper
    Online

    Flopper Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    15,239
    Thanks Received:
    2,700
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Location:
    Washington
    Ratings:
    +5,310
    The war in Afghanistan was lost from the beginning. It was a knee jerk reaction to 911. When we walk out, the extremist will take over whether that's in a year or 10 years. Americans have no stomach for gorilla warfare that could last for decades. Permanent occupation is just not going to happen. Whether Obama pulls the troops out or the next president, the end result will be about the same.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  8. geauxtohell
    Offline

    geauxtohell Choose your weapon.

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2009
    Messages:
    15,125
    Thanks Received:
    2,153
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Out here in the middle.
    Ratings:
    +2,155
    That's because there is no "win" in a place like Afghanistan. At best, we can hope to stabilize the country and then we need to leave.

    The situation will become increasingly worse as we continue to stay and the perception of our presence there on the Afghan square turns from a campaign to get rid of AQ and the Taliban and turns to a perspective that we are invaders who are occupying the country.

    The bottom line is this: there will never be a definitive point where the Taliban surrenders and a ticker tape parade is held for the boys who return. It's not that type of war and it never has or will be. There is no decisive point of victory. At best, the Taliban will simply and quietly assimilate.

    There are still many people in Afghanistan who support the Taliban and there has been an on-going effort to bring back most Taliban members into the country (with the exception of the worst of the worst) and this has been on-going since at least 2004. The Taliban was allowed to field candidates in the October '05 election.

    As the problem in Afghansitan is more economic in scope, as opposed to military, it's time to put them on notice that we are leaving soon.

    I agree with most of the sentiments about Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanis hate Pakistan. I certainly agree that the devious ISI is not to be trusted. I suspect they are still assisting the Taliban.

    I don't see what Reagan has to do with this. Again, a different circumstance and most indications were that Reagan was fairly clueless about Afghanistan. I'll give him credit for what the CIA did there since he was the CINC, but I doubt he would have managed this any better than Obama.

    If this was a matter that could be solved by presidential brilliance, then Bush would (or should) have had us out of there three years ago.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  9. JBeukema
    Offline

    JBeukema BANNED

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2009
    Messages:
    25,613
    Thanks Received:
    1,703
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    everywhere and nowhere
    Ratings:
    +1,705
    The flaw was going to war in Afghanistan and expecting the results be any different than the rest of history.


    We should invade Russia next winter...
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  10. zzzz
    Offline

    zzzz Just a regular American

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,072
    Thanks Received:
    422
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Location:
    Yountsville
    Ratings:
    +429
    The original aim of the war in Afghanistan was the destruction of the terrorist training camps and infastructure. With the success of the forces opposed to the Taliban the administration let mission creep take over and changed the objective. We should have left within a year of going in and doing what we had to do. Why we have to build other countries back up is beyond my comprehension. It takes money and men and time of which we cannot spare any. We have enough problems here at home, why can't we build schools and hire teacher in the US instead of Afghanistan?

    We should cut our losses and get out as soon as possible. Like I said before, if we see activity arising there again we can bomb them anytime and with the unmanned aircraft we have now we do not have to send our men and women into harms way to do it.

    The world is a different place than 20 or 30 years ago and occupation armies are not feasable in this day and age. The availabilty of cheap weapons and the ability of guerilla's to inflict harm and get away are force factors that any occupation force cannot cope with over time, espacially a democracy. So the US should recognize this and stay away from nation building by invasion.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2

Share This Page