william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
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China is running out the string on its use of the Japanese model of industrialization so instead of collapse into something like a great depression decades of deflationary stagnation is much more likely. The guesstimates of $100T in bad debts do not matter. Just like with the Japanese example the need to write down this financial mess will be ignored fir decades of little, negative or no growth.
The major difference between Japan and China is that the Chinese are much more likely to migrate than the Japanese and are more likely to resort to crime to do so.
The biggest example of this is that US employment is increasing faster than is theoretically possible because official investment is lower than what is needed to create the jobs, how is this possible? Well the only way known for this happen is for massive amounts of new or rebuilt capital equipment being exported to the US as used or junk machinery. Where can massive amounts of such physical capital be found? In the ghost cities and abandoned factories of China.
Energy prices are going down so oil exporting countries are selling liquid assets to stay afloat. The amount of liquid assets available is finite and the burn rate in both percentage and absolute terms is eye-popping.
A lot of wildcat oil firms are going under making many bondholders stockholders. This too leads to the dumping of shares. This too is a self-limiting problem.
Pipeline construction is slow but it decreases transport costs by 50% or more. That will make more oil wells profitable and end the price war by brute force.
The major difference between Japan and China is that the Chinese are much more likely to migrate than the Japanese and are more likely to resort to crime to do so.
The biggest example of this is that US employment is increasing faster than is theoretically possible because official investment is lower than what is needed to create the jobs, how is this possible? Well the only way known for this happen is for massive amounts of new or rebuilt capital equipment being exported to the US as used or junk machinery. Where can massive amounts of such physical capital be found? In the ghost cities and abandoned factories of China.
Energy prices are going down so oil exporting countries are selling liquid assets to stay afloat. The amount of liquid assets available is finite and the burn rate in both percentage and absolute terms is eye-popping.
A lot of wildcat oil firms are going under making many bondholders stockholders. This too leads to the dumping of shares. This too is a self-limiting problem.
Pipeline construction is slow but it decreases transport costs by 50% or more. That will make more oil wells profitable and end the price war by brute force.
