The Experts Agree: The Recession is Over.

[California Girl]

National Association for Business Economics:

Recovery Soon to Lose "Jobless" Label
November 2009

Reaffirming last month’s call that the Great Recession is over, NABE panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth in 2010 and expect performance to exceed its long-term trend. “While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change. Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs,” said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. Panelists predict a relatively sluggish consumer upturn but look for a sizable housing rebound, low inflation, and further rise in stock prices. Importantly, panelists are mostly (though not entirely) optimistic that the Federal Reserve’s policies will not lead to higher inflation. At the same time, NABE panelists are “extremely” concerned about high federal deficits over the next five years.


National Association for Business Economics (NABE)

Thank you for digging us out of Bush's deep hole Mr Obama.

These are the same experts that did not see it coming? And once it hit said it would jut be a bit of an adjustment and would be very short?

Sorry but my father taught me not to keep believing fools and liars.

Didn't these economists also say that without the stim package, unemployment would hit over 10% but with the stim package it wouldn't go over 8.5%? Your father was a smart man.

Actually, for the past 5 years or so, economists all over the world have been warning governments around the world about a massive global recession. The politicians didn't listen. Some economists had their funding pulled. This was not about Bush, or any one party or even one nation - our country, along with countries around the world, ignored the warnings of a 'perfect storm' in economic terms. And now, rather than being honest about it, people carry on dancing while the titanic continues to sink. Yes, we are out of the worst of this part of the recession - the question is - are we heading towards the second tank of a double dip. A lot of economists say we are - and a lot say we are not. At the end of the day, all we can do is wait and see.

And, maybe - if we are smart enough - to stop blaming one party or one man - and recognize that we all helped get ourselves into this mess.

 

[Zoom-boing]

Will those "experts" still feel that way after a pretty abysmal Christmas shopping season?

btw I have already bought all but a couple of my presents.

We're paying cash as much as possible this year and cutting way back.

A lot more Americans are feeling stressed out by debt this holiday season, raising the glum likelihood they'll behave like Scrooge rather than Santa.

In fact, fully 93 percent say they'll spend less or about the same as last year, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Half of all those polled say they're suffering at least some debt-related stress, and 22 percent say they're feeling it greatly or quite a bit. That second figure is up from 17 percent just last spring, despite all the talk about economic recovery.

AP-GfK Poll: Debt turning shoppers into Scrooges - Yahoo! News

 

[Toro]

The recession probably ended in the summer.

However, growth has been and will continue to be weak, and there is a significant chance we will fall back into recession next year or 2011 after the stimulus ends.

 

[Andrew2382]

it's easy for companies to report profits now since they are firing people left and right

 

[Polk]

The Paulbot chicken littles have screaming "danger ahead" for decades. When you scream it for that long, it's pretty easy to claim you were right when danger finally comes.

lets make a deal. watch this video: [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU6PamCQ6zw[/ame]

if schiff doesn't predict the collapse to the month and for the EXACT reasons that caused it I will never post here again. if he does then you never post again. deal? its hard to call someone chicken little when they give you a fucking checklist of specific things wrong.

All he did was list things anyone with a basic background in economics could have pointed out (savings rate too low, consumption too high). Arthur Laffer is arguing against him because Laffer is more interested in pimping a political philosophy and cheerleading for the Bush adminstration than any sort of economic reality.

Also, he doesn't predict the date of the collapse. He said that it was going to occur at some point in 2007 or 2008.

 

[Vast LWC]

Didn't these economists also say that without the stim package, unemployment would hit over 10% but with the stim package it wouldn't go over 8.5%? Your father was a smart man.

Who are you referring to when you say "these economists"? Do you just mean economists in general?

As has been mentioned multiple times, these are a non-partisan group of leading economists.

 

[Vast LWC]

Actually, for the past 5 years or so, economists all over the world have been warning governments around the world about a massive global recession. The politicians didn't listen. Some economists had their funding pulled. This was not about Bush, or any one party or even one nation - our country, along with countries around the world, ignored the warnings of a 'perfect storm' in economic terms. And now, rather than being honest about it, people carry on dancing while the titanic continues to sink. Yes, we are out of the worst of this part of the recession - the question is - are we heading towards the second tank of a double dip. A lot of economists say we are - and a lot say we are not. At the end of the day, all we can do is wait and see.

And, maybe - if we are smart enough - to stop blaming one party or one man - and recognize that we all helped get ourselves into this mess.

Now that is a good post. I agree.

When I say "Bush's recession" it's more a dig at my political opponents than a belief that Bush caused the recession.

Of course if you listen to Rush Limbaugh, Obama caused the recession, which is just ludicrous.

 

[Vast LWC]

That being said, there are several factors that did not help in creating the recession, and some of them were political in nature, but certainly no one person was responsible.

I also believe it is true that the stimulus efforts have had some effect in helping to revive the economy.

So while I won't blame Bush for the recession, I will give credit where credit is due.

 

[Toro]

Actually, for the past 5 years or so, economists all over the world have been warning governments around the world about a massive global recession. The politicians didn't listen. Some economists had their funding pulled. This was not about Bush, or any one party or even one nation - our country, along with countries around the world, ignored the warnings of a 'perfect storm' in economic terms. And now, rather than being honest about it, people carry on dancing while the titanic continues to sink. Yes, we are out of the worst of this part of the recession - the question is - are we heading towards the second tank of a double dip. A lot of economists say we are - and a lot say we are not. At the end of the day, all we can do is wait and see.

And, maybe - if we are smart enough - to stop blaming one party or one man - and recognize that we all helped get ourselves into this mess.

Most economists missed this crisis. Most macroeconomics models do not account for exogenous shocks in the financial system given that they generally believe such shocks are outside of general equilibrium.

 

[DiamondDave]

Even from lib supporting CNN

There is also concern that the GDP growth is largely the result of the economic stimulus implemented by the federal government and other government initiatives like the "Cash for Clunkers" program for automobiles.

Brighter signs in economy haven't boosted confidence or hiring - CNN.com

Private business investment is down, government policy towards spending and the economy is about as bad as it can be and hindering recovery, actual effect on the everyday citizen is still rough, unemployment has not hit it's bottom.... so despite far-left-wingers spouting off that things are recovered or that all these little things mean Obama's plan is a success, there is no truth or proof of these assumptions in reality

More claims of bias, and a confidence poll? Not very convincing. Confidence polls are notoriously fickle and changeable.

Note, I could have posted the story from where I found it originally, on the obviously biased MSNBC, but I didn't.

Instead I went and checked the source to make sure it wasn't a political hack job.

Ummm.. I was referring to the source I was giving for my statement... my link was CNN.. as stated

 

[California Girl]

That being said, there are several factors that did not help in creating the recession, and some of them were political in nature, but certainly no one person was responsible.

I also believe it is true that the stimulus efforts have had some effect in helping to revive the economy.

So while I won't blame Bush for the recession, I will give credit where credit is due.

Scary, that you being the loony left and me being the rabid right, both agree on such a significant issue! There is hope! Now, if we can just find the change - we're good to go!

I agreed with the need for a stimulus, and I stand by that. The mistake that Obama made (and I doubt that it was actually his mistake) was using vast chunks of that money for projects that had no economic impact. That's politics. Unfortunately, this was a time when we needed apolitical actions and - for that - I blame the democrats. Their congress - their decisions. They were wrong.

 

[Vast LWC]

Even from lib supporting CNN


Brighter signs in economy haven't boosted confidence or hiring - CNN.com

Private business investment is down, government policy towards spending and the economy is about as bad as it can be and hindering recovery, actual effect on the everyday citizen is still rough, unemployment has not hit it's bottom.... so despite far-left-wingers spouting off that things are recovered or that all these little things mean Obama's plan is a success, there is no truth or proof of these assumptions in reality

More claims of bias, and a confidence poll? Not very convincing. Confidence polls are notoriously fickle and changeable.

Note, I could have posted the story from where I found it originally, on the obviously biased MSNBC, but I didn't.

Instead I went and checked the source to make sure it wasn't a political hack job.

Ummm.. I was referring to the source I was giving for my statement... my link was CNN.. as stated

CNN is not a source, they are a news organization. They used other people as a source.

Talking heads are not economists.

 

[Vast LWC]

Scary, that you being the loony left and me being the rabid right, both agree on such a significant issue! There is hope! Now, if we can just find the change - we're good to go!

I agreed with the need for a stimulus, and I stand by that. The mistake that Obama made (and I doubt that it was actually his mistake) was using vast chunks of that money for projects that had no economic impact. That's politics. Unfortunately, this was a time when we needed apolitical actions and - for that - I blame the democrats. Their congress - their decisions. They were wrong.

I will accept that. The way Congress works makes this happen all the time, and it shouldn't have happened here. Agreed.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

No one with any brains is going to claim that spending of any kind by anyone will help a downturn.

Every honest person realizes that a money infusion would make this less deep than pulling a Hoover of too little too late.

You see folks government money is still money and still has an impact.

The ression is ened and it ended in the summer. These things have definitions folks and you cant create new definitions for political purposes and retain any level of respect.


Jobs always have been and always will be a lagging indicator.

 

[Vast LWC]

Wow, a photo of some 80's commercial star really just proves your whole case.

Sometimes a funny little quip or talking point just doesn't cut the mustard there, frank.

 

[Rinata]

If God Himself came down and said that the country was in great shape, you tea bagging nutcases would find reasons to say it wasn't true.

When people never have anything good to say about something, then all of the bad things they say cannot be believed. If your constant criticisms were just peppered with a few positive comments sometimes, you'd have more credibility.

 

[California Girl]

Scary, that you being the loony left and me being the rabid right, both agree on such a significant issue! There is hope! Now, if we can just find the change - we're good to go!

I agreed with the need for a stimulus, and I stand by that. The mistake that Obama made (and I doubt that it was actually his mistake) was using vast chunks of that money for projects that had no economic impact. That's politics. Unfortunately, this was a time when we needed apolitical actions and - for that - I blame the democrats. Their congress - their decisions. They were wrong.

I will accept that. The way Congress works makes this happen all the time, and it shouldn't have happened here. Agreed.

So, you will also agree with me that one of the very few people who actually took the economists' warnings seriously and tried to bring in measures that would actually have put the US in a much stronger economic position was a certain George W Bush?

Because that's a fact. Bush did listen. He did try to bring in legislation that would have been hugely beneficial to our economy. And, the democrats stopped it. God knows, I am no fan of Bush but, credit where it is due, he tried to stop the worst of it and congress stopped him.

Would it be too much to ask from our politicians that they do what is best for the country and not what is best for themselves. It doesn't actually make a lot of difference what party is in power - both are shit.

 

[California Girl]

If God Himself came down and said that the country was in great shape, you tea bagging nutcases would find reasons to say it wasn't true.

When people never have anything good to say about something, then all of the bad things they say cannot be believed. If your constant criticisms were just peppered with a few positive comments sometimes, you'd have more credibility.

According to you, He's currently the POTUS.

 

[DiamondDave]

More claims of bias, and a confidence poll? Not very convincing. Confidence polls are notoriously fickle and changeable.

Note, I could have posted the story from where I found it originally, on the obviously biased MSNBC, but I didn't.

Instead I went and checked the source to make sure it wasn't a political hack job.

Ummm.. I was referring to the source I was giving for my statement... my link was CNN.. as stated

CNN is not a source, they are a news organization. They used other people as a source.

Talking heads are not economists.

Umm.. it is a source of information and that being information that is more often than not skewed to the left rather to the right... what they supply as a source are news stories that may be based on writer opinion, may be referencing the opinions or research of others, etc... but they are indeed a source... as a matter of fact, one used frequently by wingers such as yourself

My point being... that there are even trends by those who traditionally would suck Obama's proverbial dick, that do not hold the shiny outlook on the economy, do not consider the recession over, and are starting to see that the approach taken is not really a good idea...

 

[del]

The Experts Agree: The Recession is Over.

The "Experts" also agreed that the stimulus was a good idea.

well, at least it held unemployment below 8% like they promised it would.

oh, wait. it didn't.

nevermind.