The Economy - Round Two

[Foxfyre]

Okay, half the country got its way and we will have four more years of an Obama Administration and at least two more years of a Senate controlled by his party. The opportunity for any of the conservative agenda to be implemented now moot for at least two more years, and we will live with what we have for the interim.

Today I'm looking at a long list of businesses who already have or are in the process of laying off people. Many waited until after the election to do this at the request of the Administration. And I'm looking at reports of thousands of small businesses who have shelved plans to expand and hire or get back into the game and/or who are paring back enough people to get under the threshhold at which they would be subject to Obamacare penalties. The market has not been happy since the election so far. Is all of this the way it will be for the next four years, or is this a temporary glitch and will soon pass?

No doubt many who voted to keep Obama in power expect things to now get better and/or think all is well.

This thread is dedicated to a discussion of economic matters, what is happening, what needs to happen, and our best hopes and fears.

The poll is to express our expectations in the immediate post-election environment. Four years from now, it could be interesting how accurate we were in our projections.

Of course some of us will have criticisms and complaints about policy and actions, and others will have defense for the same, but if we could keep a reasonable level of civility it would be much appreciated.

 

[Truthmatters]

raise taxes on the top bracket

 

[Decus]

According to the CBO:
"By comparison, if the economy falls over the cliff (so to speak) next year, the situation could begin to stabilize as early as 2014. "After next year, by the agency's estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018," the report noted."
Just How High Is the Fiscal Cliff? - Yahoo! Finance

We need to make the cuts and this is probably the only way to do it.

 

[Foxfyre]

The Romney tax plan to lower rates for everybody but reduce or eliminate some deductions for the higher income earners was the way to go, and I hope the President and the Congress will do that. It would greatly brighten the prospects for an economic recovery.

 

[Foxfyre]

According to the CBO:
"By comparison, if the economy falls over the cliff (so to speak) next year, the situation could begin to stabilize as early as 2014. "After next year, by the agency's estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018," the report noted."
Just How High Is the Fiscal Cliff? - Yahoo! Finance

We need to make the cuts and this is probably the only way to do it.

Yes, we have to make cuts, but it has to be done in ways that won't further decimate a very anemic economy. The first order of business simply has to be to guarantee a tax schedule and guarantee removal of business-inhibiting regulation to allow the revenue producers to be able to turn loose their investment capital and start hiring again. Without revenue being produced, no amount of budget cuts will make a dent in the deficit or debt.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Okay, half the country got its way and we will have four more years of an Obama Administration and at least two more years of a Senate controlled by his party. The opportunity for any of the conservative agenda to be implemented now moot for at least two more years, and we will live with what we have for the interim.

Today I'm looking at a long list of businesses who already have or are in the process of laying off people. Many waited until after the election to do this at the request of the Administration. And I'm looking at reports of thousands of small businesses who have shelved plans to expand and hire or get back into the game and/or who are paring back enough people to get under the threshhold at which they would be subject to Obamacare penalties. The market has not been happy since the election so far. Is all of this the way it will be for the next four years, or is this a temporary glitch and will soon pass?

No doubt many who voted to keep Obama in power expect things to now get better and/or think all is well.

Oh, Ye...Of Little Faith....AGAIN!​

"Now it's Bill Clinton's turn to run for re-election. And though the economy is not moving backward (the definition of a recession), it's not setting any speed records either. Fifty percent of major U.S. companies trimmed their payrolls in the 12 months ending June 1995, some of them significantly. Indeed, from March 1995 to March 1996, 325,000 high-paying manufacturing jobs disappeared, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The public -- especially the nearly 8 million people who are working two or more jobs to make ends meet -- know something is amiss. And they are concerned."

Fast Forward to...

2000
THE GREATEST ECONOMY THE U.S. EVER EXPERIENCED!!​

​

 

[Decus]

According to the CBO:
"By comparison, if the economy falls over the cliff (so to speak) next year, the situation could begin to stabilize as early as 2014. "After next year, by the agency's estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018," the report noted."
Just How High Is the Fiscal Cliff? - Yahoo! Finance

We need to make the cuts and this is probably the only way to do it.

Yes, we have to make cuts, but it has to be done in ways that won't further decimate a very anemic economy. The first order of business simply has to be to guarantee a tax schedule and guarantee removal of business-inhibiting regulation to allow the revenue producers to be able to turn loose their investment capital and start hiring again. Without revenue being produced, no amount of budget cuts will make a dent in the deficit or debt.

I believe that job creation should have been this administration real priority but it wasn't and will probably not be in the future. Deficit spending however is a real problem that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. Better to take the pain now than to continue to kick the can down the road.

 

[Foxfyre]

Okay, getting past the psychadelic cut and paste . . . .

Typically the markets have done very well during Democratic first terms; not so well during Democratic second terms. The markets haven't performed as well as the Democrats in Republican first terms but do much better than Democrats in second terms.

So here we are in a Democratic second term. Our modest portfolio, except in metals, has been taking a substantial hit since the election. We will likely pull all of our investments out of the market if the President and Congress have not reached an accord to avoid the fiscal cliff by mid December.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

The Romney tax plan to lower rates for everybody but reduce or eliminate some deductions for the higher income earners was the way to go....

....And, BILL CLINTON PROVED....​

....OTHERWISE!!!!!​

"Conservative politicians always threaten the public that, if Congress or the President raises taxes on the wealthy, the economy will slow down, unemployment will go up, and workers' wages will go down.

Conservatives’ hidden agenda: we want to allow our wealthy supporters—the ones who benefited most from the economic policies that forced huge sacrifices onto American workers during the 1980s and 90s—to be able to keep more of their money.

Reality: Raising taxes on the wealthy is much more likely to reduce the deficit and make more money available to proactively solve America’s problems—and save money in the long run. In addition, it may have absolutely no negative effect on economic growth, jobs or wages."

 

[Foxfyre]

According to the CBO:
"By comparison, if the economy falls over the cliff (so to speak) next year, the situation could begin to stabilize as early as 2014. "After next year, by the agency's estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018," the report noted."
Just How High Is the Fiscal Cliff? - Yahoo! Finance

We need to make the cuts and this is probably the only way to do it.

Yes, we have to make cuts, but it has to be done in ways that won't further decimate a very anemic economy. The first order of business simply has to be to guarantee a tax schedule and guarantee removal of business-inhibiting regulation to allow the revenue producers to be able to turn loose their investment capital and start hiring again. Without revenue being produced, no amount of budget cuts will make a dent in the deficit or debt.

I believe that job creation should have been this administration real priority but it wasn't and will probably not be in the future. Deficit spending however is a real problem that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. Better to take the pain now than to continue to kick the can down the road.

I appreciate your opinion and understand the rationale for it. But I also see the reality that if the U.S. government cut every single dime they don't have to spend, the current stagnant economy would continue to produce so little tax revenue that we would still be mounting crushing debt. And the automatic cuts threatened by the fiscal cliff would only exacerbate that because it would throw even more people out of work and make it much harder to make money running a business.

Four years of a stagnant, floundering economy has put us in a very precarious position.

 

[Decus]

Unless significant cuts are made to US spending, our credit rating will take a hit. Watch what happens when foreigners start to pull their money out of the US or charge us more to borrow.

 

[Foxfyre]

Without taking away the accomplishments of the Clinton years, it has to be noted that he came into office benefitting from an accelerating economy and that economy significantly slowed after his 1993 tax hike. The economy boomed again after a GOP controlled Congress finally convinced him to accept welfare reform and some critically targeted tax cuts.

Full analysis here:
Clinton Tax Hikes Slowed Growth

 

[Sallow]

Obama has more then half the country on his side, Ms. Foxfyre.

 

[Decus]

Obama has more then half the country on his side, Ms. Foxfyre.

So did a few other notable failures in history.

 

[auditor0007]

Okay, half the country got its way and we will have four more years of an Obama Administration and at least two more years of a Senate controlled by his party. The opportunity for any of the conservative agenda to be implemented now moot for at least two more years, and we will live with what we have for the interim.

Today I'm looking at a long list of businesses who already have or are in the process of laying off people. Many waited until after the election to do this at the request of the Administration. And I'm looking at reports of thousands of small businesses who have shelved plans to expand and hire or get back into the game and/or who are paring back enough people to get under the threshhold at which they would be subject to Obamacare penalties. The market has not been happy since the election so far. Is all of this the way it will be for the next four years, or is this a temporary glitch and will soon pass?

No doubt many who voted to keep Obama in power expect things to now get better and/or think all is well.

This thread is dedicated to a discussion of economic matters, what is happening, what needs to happen, and our best hopes and fears.

The poll is to express our expectations in the immediate post-election environment. Four years from now, it could be interesting how accurate we were in our projections.

Of course some of us will have criticisms and complaints about policy and actions, and others will have defense for the same, but if we could keep a reasonable level of civility it would be much appreciated.

You didn't post the most as an option the thing that is most likely to happen and the thing that was most likely to happen no matter who won the election. Where is "the economy will improve but it will be a slow recovery"?

 

[Truthmatters]

Without taking away the accomplishments of the Clinton years, it has to be noted that he came into office benefitting from an accelerating economy and that economy significantly slowed after his 1993 tax hike. The economy boomed again after a GOP controlled Congress finally convinced him to accept welfare reform and some critically targeted tax cuts.

Full analysis here:
Clinton Tax Hikes Slowed Growth

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw]Paul Weyrich - "I don't want everybody to vote" (Goo Goo) - YouTube[/ame]



this is the founder of the heritage foundation.

why would anyone trust their numbers?

 

[Foxfyre]

You are ore than welcome to dispute their numbers if you can TM. So far many have tried, but nobody has been able to do so. Of course their opinion about what the numbers mean is open to debate, but they have excellent statisticans and they get the numbers right.

 

[FA_Q2]

You didn't post the most as an option the thing that is most likely to happen and the thing that was most likely to happen no matter who won the election. Where is "the economy will improve but it will be a slow recovery"?

I second this.


I believe that Obama's policies are going to be a disaster BUT the economy is still going to slowly improve. It is just the way things work. We are not close enough to the edge for the disaster to take effect and we are not going to see that for many years to come.

 

[JWBooth]

<snip>

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k80nW6AOhTs]Jane you Ignorant slut - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Wiseacre]

Without taking away the accomplishments of the Clinton years, it has to be noted that he came into office benefitting from an accelerating economy and that economy significantly slowed after his 1993 tax hike. The economy boomed again after a GOP controlled Congress finally convinced him to accept welfare reform and some critically targeted tax cuts.

Full analysis here:
Clinton Tax Hikes Slowed Growth

I am also certain that Clinton is on record as saying that raising taxes in a bad economy is not a good idea. Obama said the same thing back in 2008. Nice chart BTW.