The Dow will test 27,000 by April 16th

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by william the wie, Mar 12, 2018.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    at least close enough to right on the 10 year T. My errors, if such they be, was not paying enough attention to the Far East:
    1. I had no reason to believe that Abe would blow himself out of the water quite as thoroughly as he has.

    2. Nor did I realize that without Abe that there was zero chance of Trump selling Japan anti-missile defenses.

    3. I strongly suspected that selling defensive weapons to Japan was giving Trump great leverage in negotiating with North Korea and China, hopefully it was not the only lever.
     
  2. Toddsterpatriot
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    Toddsterpatriot Diamond Member

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    I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.
     
  3. BuckToothMoron
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    BuckToothMoron Gold Member

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    Here is what he said- he called for the 10 year rate to triple by Election Day. It really struck me that somebody as clearly sharp as William would make such a bold and near impossible prediction.

    2018#1
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    william the wieGold Member

    Me, I am guessing that wage push inflation and real GDP growth combined will take the 10 year treasury interest rate from yesterday's 2.63% to something like 7.6% by election day and drop PEs by about 2/3s for dividend stocks while earnings and earnings growth go up. Any guesses on multiples for utilities?
     
  4. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I took a guesstimate on the speed of capital and employment flight from the Blue wall. That is in the groove. I did not anticipate a black swan anywhere near the size of the Abe implosion. Japan and other countries in Westpac have a perceived need to buy lots of weapons to keep China from reestablishing its empire.
     
  5. Toddsterpatriot
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    Toddsterpatriot Diamond Member

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    I can't see the link you tried to post.

    Then there is another problem, there is effectively no leverage limit on bonds. With TIPS if we have 5% wage inflation and 5% GDP growth the ten year treasury will yield 10.25% nominal interest and the margin rate will be something like 9-10% depending on demand for CDs.

    CDZ - How Fast and Hard a stop in the Real Estate Market?

     
  6. MarathonMike
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    MarathonMike Platinum Member

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    It would be boring if we all thought about the market and external factors the same way.
     
  7. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    And much less profitable too.
     
  8. ABikerSailor
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    ABikerSailor Diamond Member

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    Well, the OP said that the Dow would be testing 27,000 by April 16th.

    Today is April 24th, and the Dow has dropped to 23,957 and still dropping.

    Looks like the OP's prediction was wrong.
     
  9. ABikerSailor
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    ABikerSailor Diamond Member

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    I'm gonna bump this thread to see if anyone still thinks the DOW is capable of hitting 27,000 anytime soon.

    It's already dropped 519 points so far today (Tuesday, April 24th, 2018).
     
  10. Mr Clean
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    Mr Clean Gold Member

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    Not today it won't.
     

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