The Dow will test 27,000 by April 16th

[william the wie]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

at least close enough to right on the 10 year T. My errors, if such they be, was not paying enough attention to the Far East:
1. I had no reason to believe that Abe would blow himself out of the water quite as thoroughly as he has.

2. Nor did I realize that without Abe that there was zero chance of Trump selling Japan anti-missile defenses.

3. I strongly suspected that selling defensive weapons to Japan was giving Trump great leverage in negotiating with North Korea and China, hopefully it was not the only lever.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.

Here is what he said- he called for the 10 year rate to triple by Election Day. It really struck me that somebody as clearly sharp as William would make such a bold and near impossible prediction.

2018#1

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william the wieGold Member

Me, I am guessing that wage push inflation and real GDP growth combined will take the 10 year treasury interest rate from yesterday's 2.63% to something like 7.6% by election day and drop PEs by about 2/3s for dividend stocks while earnings and earnings growth go up. Any guesses on multiples for utilities?

 

[william the wie]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.

Here is what he said- he called for the 10 year rate to triple by Election Day. It really struck me that somebody as clearly sharp as William would make such a bold and near impossible prediction.

2018#1

Offline
william the wieGold Member

Me, I am guessing that wage push inflation and real GDP growth combined will take the 10 year treasury interest rate from yesterday's 2.63% to something like 7.6% by election day and drop PEs by about 2/3s for dividend stocks while earnings and earnings growth go up. Any guesses on multiples for utilities?

I took a guesstimate on the speed of capital and employment flight from the Blue wall. That is in the groove. I did not anticipate a black swan anywhere near the size of the Abe implosion. Japan and other countries in Westpac have a perceived need to buy lots of weapons to keep China from reestablishing its empire.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.

Here is what he said- he called for the 10 year rate to triple by Election Day. It really struck me that somebody as clearly sharp as William would make such a bold and near impossible prediction.

2018#1

Offline
william the wieGold Member

Me, I am guessing that wage push inflation and real GDP growth combined will take the 10 year treasury interest rate from yesterday's 2.63% to something like 7.6% by election day and drop PEs by about 2/3s for dividend stocks while earnings and earnings growth go up. Any guesses on multiples for utilities?

I can't see the link you tried to post.

Then there is another problem, there is effectively no leverage limit on bonds. With TIPS if we have 5% wage inflation and 5% GDP growth the ten year treasury will yield 10.25% nominal interest and the margin rate will be something like 9-10% depending on demand for CDs.

CDZ - How Fast and Hard a stop in the Real Estate Market?

 

[MarathonMike]

It would be boring if we all thought about the market and external factors the same way.

 

[william the wie]

It would be boring if we all thought about the market and external factors the same way.

And much less profitable too.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Well, the OP said that the Dow would be testing 27,000 by April 16th.

Today is April 24th, and the Dow has dropped to 23,957 and still dropping.

Looks like the OP's prediction was wrong.

 

[ABikerSailor]

I'm gonna bump this thread to see if anyone still thinks the DOW is capable of hitting 27,000 anytime soon.

It's already dropped 519 points so far today (Tuesday, April 24th, 2018).

 

[Mr Natural]

Not today it won't.

 

[william the wie]

Obviously it was wrong.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Obviously it was wrong.

I'm guessing that the stock market will see 20,000 before it starts to look at 27,000.

 

[deanrd]

Well, the OP said that the Dow would be testing 27,000 by April 16th.

Today is April 24th, and the Dow has dropped to 23,957 and still dropping.

Looks like the OP's prediction was wrong.

It ticked slightly up just before it closed to 24,024.

It was over 20,000 on Trump's first day in office.

It was around 7,000 on the day Obama took office.

Mmmmm.

Looks like the Obama bump may be ending.

What will tariffs and tax cuts for billionaires and ending trade agreements do to the stock market? I suspect nothing good.

 

[ABikerSailor]

You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today. Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.

 

[deanrd]

You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today. Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.

To me, the body language of the French President looks like he cringes every time Trump looks at him.

 

[ABikerSailor]

You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today. Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.

To me, the body language of the French President looks like he cringes every time Trump looks at him.

You must have watched a different news conference than what I saw today. They were positively bro like with each other. Macron and Trump couldn't stop touching each other.

 

[otto105]

You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today. Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.

To me, the body language of the French President looks like he cringes every time Trump looks at him.

You must have watched a different news conference than what I saw today. They were positively bro like with each other. Macron and Trump couldn't stop touching each other.

Gay

 

[ABikerSailor]

Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.

 

[Camp]

Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.

Yes, but gas is going up and reaching the highest prices in a long time. And milk has reached $6.00 a gallon.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.

Yes, but gas is going up and reaching the highest prices in a long time. And milk has reached $6.00 a gallon.

WTF does that have to do with the subject of this thread? The OP had stated that the DOW would be pushing 27,000 by the 16th of last month. What does the price of gas and milk have to do with anything?