The Democrats’ Growing Medicare Dilemma

The big thing that Ryan's budget does is to devolve to a voucher plan, where insurance companies get to decide how much to cover. With his plan of totally scrapping Obama's plan, the insurance companies will also decide what and who they'll cover. If the cost of best practice care exceeds what an insurance company want to pay, and the elder can't afford, fuck them. Death panels for the poor? Yep.

Another crappy post.

You're batting 100%.

Please tell us how insurance companies can do this. Oh, wait, I know. They have no competition because government has made it so freaking tough to enter the market.

People call it a free market failure. Since when was there any free market in health care.
 
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This campaign has been fascinating, in that both parties have gone directly after an issue generally perceived to be a strength of the other party. The Democrats went straight after Romney's Bain background, and now it appears the GOP is going to take Medicare to the Democrats.

The Dems were successful with their strategy, we'll see how it goes for the GOP. Ryan is the best messenger they have, now we'll find out what the voters think of the message.

What the partisans think is irrelevant. It's the independents whose opinion matters. Fortunately.

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The details have been written down. You simply have to read them.

I've read everything Ryan's put out. The only real policy details were hinted at in the CBO's documents, suggesting he gave them more information than he's put out generally. And, as I said, there are certain inconsistencies in the known policy details that raise questions about how well thought out this is.

Your idea of how to save medicare is not germane to anything. We are dealing with what is written and what the politicians are promoting.

Uh, chief? What I'm describing is now official policy for Medicare. Medicare reform as I've described it is not a vague white paper ala Ryan, it's been federal law for two and a half years.

Indeed, Medicare reform even specifically created an Innovation Center with the authority to roll out and try new variants of the approaches I described above--and they're more than happy to keep you apprised of their progress as they begin or continue implementing these reforms in Medicare.

Seriously, let's pause here. How the fuck are you not aware of this? You just glibly told me I have "simply have to read" Ryan's napkin sketches as if I wasn't already more familiar with what he's been putting out for the past 5 years than you, but you're not even aware of the Medicare reforms Obama not only signed into law but has been implementing for nearly 3 years. What, you thought they were just hoping that cost growth would slow to make the scheduled slowing of the fee schedule market basket updates work? It didn't occur to you that maybe they're doing something to ensure that Medicare can deliver better care more efficiently and at lower cost?

Yet I'm the one in the conversation who's untrustworthy, right? That makes you what, a well-meaning moron? You just sort of assumed that Obama's approach to reform Medicare is whatever the GOP message machine is saying today?

Maybe you should take a moment and check in on what's been happening in Medicare over the past few years.


Slower Growth in Medicare Spending — Is This the New Normal? | NEJM
For many years, policymakers have appropriately singled out federal spending on health care — especially Medicare — as the most serious long-term threat to the nation's fiscal health. Over the past four decades, the average growth in Medicare spending per enrollee has exceeded the growth in per capita gross domestic product by 2.6 percentage points per year. This trend is unsustainable: if it continued, Medicare would consume all federal revenues by 2060.

But there are indications that Medicare spending growth has slowed. One highly visible gauge of Medicare spending trends is the standard monthly Part B premium, which is set by the Medicare actuary to cover one quarter of total Part B spending. In August 2011, the actuary projected that the Part B premium for 2012 would be $106.60, but the actual premium was set in November at only $99.90. A much broader indicator of a slowing trend is the fact that growth in Medicare outlays per enrollee in 2010 and 2011 was roughly in line with growth in the economy (see graph). And in January 2012, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) made a $69 billion downward revision to its 10-year Medicare spending projection — a technical correction that reflects emerging data showing surprisingly slow growth in outlays. Similar slowing trends have led to positive earnings surprises for publicly traded insurers.
In site visits and interviews conducted for our ongoing qualitative research, the Center for Studying Health System Change found strong provider interest in payment reform and efforts to prepare for it, with the prospect of increasing constraint on Medicare payment rates cited as motivation. We see a combination of reformed delivery of care and broader units of payment as having the potential to allow providers to generate savings through steps that are less threatening to quality of care and access than are cuts in payment rates.

Medicare spending in surprising slowdown | UPI.com
U.S. Medicare spending growth has slowed even as enrollment rises, and could remain below targets set by Congress for the next 10 years, experts said.

Medicare recorded a sharp drop in the volume of doctor visits and other outpatient services early in 2010, from an annual growth rate of 4 percent growth to less than 2 percent.

"We thought, 'Wow, what's happening?'" chief Medicare actuary Rick Foster told The Washington Post in an interview. "Part B cost growth has slowed down so much, we're seeing virtually the lowest rates ever."

Washington Stuck Fighting Wrong Health-Care Battle | Bloomberg
This brings us back to the progress being made beyond the Beltway toward a better combination of cost and quality in health care. Consistent with other evidence that points to a deceleration in cost pressures is a Congressional Budget Office report earlier this month showing that Medicare spending has risen less than 3 percent over the past year.

Bending The Health Care Cost Curve: More Than Meets The Eye? | Health Affairs Blog
During the past months, a number of important articles have appeared in the healthcare literature on the subject of the recent slowing of health-spending growth in the U.S. In an article in January’s Health Affairs, economists at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services suggest that the recession, even though officially ending in mid-2009, was the major factor in “extraordinarily slow” spending growth of 4.7 percent in 2008 and 3.9 percent in 2010, down from 7.5 percent in 2007 and double-digit growth in the 1980s and 1990s. Also citing recessionary causes, a report from the McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform specifies declines in the rate of overall spending growth for eight consecutive years, from 9.2 percent in 2002 to 4.0 percent in 2009.

The purpose of this commentary is to suggest—through observations and data analyses—that independent of the recession, other fundamental and structural changes are likely contributing to the flattening of the cost curve, and further, that these changes have the potential to significantly alter the curve’s path into the future. Two independent analyses support this premise.

SP_Healthcare_Costs_January_2012_Chart.png


Please, tell us more about how what Ryan's saying is better than what Obama's actually been doing.
 
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In the last few days, the Romney campaign has moved to dramatically change the terrain of Medicare politics, and it looks like the Democrats are beginning to realize how vulnerable they might be. Because of Obamacare, it is the Democrats who now plan to cut current seniors’ benefits (especially those in Medicare Advantage) and access to care (thanks to the IPAB) while still failing to avert the program’s (and the nation’s) fiscal collapse, and because Romney would repeal Obamacare and pursue a version of the Ryan-Wyden premium-support reform it is the Republicans who would protect current seniors’ benefits and make them available to future seniors while saving the program from collapse through market reforms. Through the candidates’ statements this week and through this new ad, Romney and Ryan have made clear they’re going to inform voters about this and force the Democrats to defend themselves on Medicare.

That won’t be easy for the Left, since the Romney campaign’s charges are true, and it is beginning to become apparent that the Democrats are totally unprepared for the coming fight. Their defenses so far fall into roughly three categories: Ryan did it too, the Obamacare Medicare cuts aren’t very serious, and finally what can only be called frantic distractions. Even as pure demagoguery (let alone as efforts at actual substantive arguments) all three are exceptionally weak defenses, and suggest the Democrats could be in serious trouble. Let’s examine each one.

....

Read more: The Democrats Growing Medicare Dilemma



Be careful what you wish for, Democrats. You're not running against McCain/Palin this time. You're up against two people who actually know something about the economy. Buckle up.

Actually the charges are false. Since we really do not know what the Governor's plans will eventually become (shhhhh...it's a secret)....we can only go by what his VP wanted to do; end Medicare as we know it.

That won't play anywhere.

Sorry.
 
Actually the charges are false. Since we really do not know what the Governor's plans will eventually become (shhhhh...it's a secret)....we can only go by what his VP wanted to do; end Medicare as we know it.

Well,

When pressed by reporters here, Romney couldn’t find the space between his own view and that of his running mate’s on Medicare.

“I’m sure there are places that my budget is different than, but we’re on the same page as I’ve said before. We want to get America on track to a balanced budget,” Romney said at a press conference on the tarmac at the Miami International Airport.

When pressed about differences between the two plans, Romney said: “There may be, we’ll take a look at the differences.”

Asked a third time, Romney was still unable to list a difference.
 
Actually the charges are false. Since we really do not know what the Governor's plans will eventually become (shhhhh...it's a secret)....we can only go by what his VP wanted to do; end Medicare as we know it.

Well,

When pressed by reporters here, Romney couldn’t find the space between his own view and that of his running mate’s on Medicare.

“I’m sure there are places that my budget is different than, but we’re on the same page as I’ve said before. We want to get America on track to a balanced budget,” Romney said at a press conference on the tarmac at the Miami International Airport.

When pressed about differences between the two plans, Romney said: “There may be, we’ll take a look at the differences.”

Asked a third time, Romney was still unable to list a difference.

A flip flopper to the very end I suppose. Might as well dance with the myriad of views that brought you.
 
Actually the charges are false. Since we really do not know what the Governor's plans will eventually become (shhhhh...it's a secret)....we can only go by what his VP wanted to do; end Medicare as we know it.

Well,

When pressed by reporters here, Romney couldn’t find the space between his own view and that of his running mate’s on Medicare.

“I’m sure there are places that my budget is different than, but we’re on the same page as I’ve said before. We want to get America on track to a balanced budget,” Romney said at a press conference on the tarmac at the Miami International Airport.

When pressed about differences between the two plans, Romney said: “There may be, we’ll take a look at the differences.”

Asked a third time, Romney was still unable to list a difference.

A flip flopper to the very end I suppose. Might as well dance with the myriad of views that brought you.

In a bizarre overreaction to his own statement that there's no daylight between himself and Ryan on Medicare, Romney made some news: he's going to reverse Obama's reforms and accelerate Medicare spending, exhausting the HI trust fund in 2016 (before the end of his first term). Even Ryan never called for that.

He keeps making the choice between his brand of Medicare "reform" and Obama's reforms easier every day.
 
I want Obama to explain it during the debates! Or better yet, let Ryan bring it up to Biden. That would be a hoot!

I can't wait, but then don't be surprised if the democrats demand that NO questions on medicare be allowed.
 
I can't wait, but then don't be surprised if the democrats demand that NO questions on medicare be allowed.

Right, Medicare is something the Democrats are hoping isn't brought up. Sometimes I have to wonder if you people are out of your fucking minds.

Pew:
8-21-12-3.png


NBC/Wall Street Journal:
Which of the following statements do you agree with more? (ROTATE)

Mitt Romney who says this proposal is a good idea because it would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs for Medicare by giving future seniors more control over their own health care dollars and a choice between traditional Medicare and a variety of private plans.
…or…
Barack Obama who says this proposal is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount.

Mitt Romney .................................................... 34
Barack Obama ................................................. 50
Mixed/Some of both (VOL) ............................ 2
Neither (VOL) ............................................... 5
Not sure ......................................................... 9

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS News poll of battleground states:
n_hardball_2polls_120823.jpg


All of these in the past week.
 

A flip flopper to the very end I suppose. Might as well dance with the myriad of views that brought you.

In a bizarre overreaction to his own statement that there's no daylight between himself and Ryan on Medicare, Romney made some news: he's going to reverse Obama's reforms and accelerate Medicare spending, exhausting the HI trust fund in 2016 (before the end of his first term). Even Ryan never called for that.

He keeps making the choice between his brand of Medicare "reform" and Obama's reforms easier every day.

It would be preferable, in my view, if voters actually knew what his stances were. He doesn't even know the details himself:

Frequently Asked Questions About Mitt’s Plan​

What are the immediate effects of this plan?

This plan has no effect on current seniors or those nearing retirement. It will go into effect for younger Americans when they reach retirement in the future.

How is this different from the Ryan Plan?

Shortly after Mitt presented the proposal described here, Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator Ron Wyden introduced a bipartisan proposal that almost precisely mirrors Mitt’s ideas. Unsurprisingly, the Obama administration immediately rejected the proposal. Mitt has applauded the Ryan-Wyden effort and looks forward to working as president with leaders from both sides of the aisle to implement meaningful reforms that will preserve Medicare for future generations.

How high will the premium support be? How quickly will it grow?

Mitt continues to work on refining the details of his plan, and he is exploring different options for ensuring that future seniors receive the premium support they need while also ensuring that competitive pressures encourage providers to improve quality and control cost. His goal is for Medicare to offer every senior affordable options that provide coverage and service at least as good as what today’s seniors receive. Lower income seniors in the future will receive the most generous benefits to ensure that they are able to get care every bit as good as that provided in the current Medicare program.

Here it is nearly September and he hasn't worked out his details yet. The Governor certainly isn't "ready from day one" now is he. Nor is the Congressman who clearly isn't ready for the Presidency.
 
No one knows what Romney/Ryan believe on Medicare any more, including Romney and Ryan.

They both wanted to end Medicare as we know it until they woke up and realized what a political loser that was,

now they're trying to run as the saviours of Medicare as we know it, and somehow, it's that other guy who wants to do to Medicare what they wanted to do a year or so ago.
 
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Anyone who believes that addidng 30 million people to the medicare rolls, while at the same time removing 716 billion dollars from the medicare coffers isn't ending medicare as we know is is a god damned fool.
 
No one knows what Romney/Ryan believe on Medicare any more, including Romney and Ryan.

They both wanted to end Medicare as we know it until they woke up and realized what a political loser that was,

now they're trying to run as the saviours of Medicare as we know it, and somehow, it's that other guy who want to do to Medicare what they wanted to do a year or so ago.

It goes beyond their plan for Medicare. Earlier this Month, the Governor stated (or his campaign did anyway) that the ACA will cost medicare $716B. On the Governor's own website it states the ACA will cost medicare $500B.

The entire campaign is a bumbling fumbling mess.

Seriously, if he had an "I" next to his name, every conservative here would point at him and ask what his problem is.
 
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Anyone who believes that addidng 30 million people to the medicare rolls...

There are people who believe 30 million people are being added to "the Medicare rolls"? Something tells me that there aren't that many Boomers hitting 65 each day.

....removing 716 billion dollars from the medicare coffers

I assume by "Medicare coffers" you mean the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance trust funds. Those have the same amount of money in them they always have.
 
The Truth About the Obama Cuts

Obama is cutting the amount paid to providers, which providers spend trillions lobbying to increase their payouts. They don't compete on the market for these payouts, they lobby for them. Obama is ending their sweetheart, no-bid, special interest payouts. We can't afford for special interests to collude with their puppet politicians for the purpose of creating a rat's nest of corrupt high-cost unnecessary medicare procedures. The Entitlement system has always been welfare to the providers who have huge offices in Washington DC, staffed to the gills with people who pressure politicians to build insane amounts of expensive garbage into Medicare treatment. My grandmother just had a procedure done. You should have seen the itemized bill of high-cost bullshit that was built into the procedure by special interests. How do you think the private sector health system lives so well? By going to Washington and gaining direct access to the taxpayer's wallet. Obama is ending their free ride and they don't like it.

The Medicare payout is alot like the Halliburton no-bid payouts during the Iraq War. It's a lot like the 2003 GOP drug bill where Eli Lilly bribed the GOP congress to build in above-market drug costs for seniors.

Everybody knows that welfare in capitalist systems always goes to those with capital, i.e., the people with enough money to fund elections and control government.

Of course Ryan and Rommney don't want to limit payouts to special interest providers.

Ryan's plan calls for keeping the high payout to providers, but limiting the amount of service given to each senior. He does this by giving them vouchers to pay only for percentage of their service (so the special interests still get their payout). Seniors must make up the cost for the uncovered part out of their own wallet. If they lack the funds, they are fucked. It's going to be like the 3rd world where old people die in hovels.
 
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Anyone who believes that addidng 30 million people to the medicare rolls...

There are people who believe 30 million people are being added to "the Medicare rolls"? Something tells me that there aren't that many Boomers hitting 65 each day.

....removing 716 billion dollars from the medicare coffers

I assume by "Medicare coffers" you mean the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance trust funds. Those have the same amount of money in them they always have.

You land in the goddamned fool category. Sorry
 
The Truth About the Obama Cuts

Obama is cutting the amount paid to providers, which providers spend trillions lobbying to increase their payouts. They don't compete on the market for these payouts, they lobby for them. Obama is ending their sweetheart, no-bid, special interest payouts. We can't afford for special interests to collude with their puppet politicians for the purpose of creating a rat's nest of corrupt high-cost unnecessary medicare procedures. The Entitlement system has always been welfare to the providers who have huge offices in Washington DC, staffed to the gills with people who pressure politicians to build insane amounts of expensive garbage into Medicare treatment. My grandmother just had a procedure done. You should have seen the itemized bill of high-cost bullshit that was built into the procedure by special interests. How do you think the private sector health system lives so well? By going to Washington and gaining direct access to the taxpayer's wallet. Obama is ending their free ride and they don't like it.

The Medicare payout is alot like the Halliburton no-bid payouts during the Iraq War. It's a lot like the 2003 GOP drug bill where Eli Lilly bribed the GOP congress to build in above-market drug costs for seniors.

Everybody knows that welfare in capitalist systems always goes to those with capital, i.e., the people with enough money to fund elections and control government.

Of course Ryan and Rommney don't want to limit payouts to special interest providers.

Ryan's plan calls for keeping the high payout to providers, but limiting the amount of service given to each senior. He does this by giving them vouchers to pay only for percentage of their service (so the special interests still get their payout). Seniors must make up the cost for the uncovered part out of their own wallet. If they lack the funds, they are fucked. It's going to be like the 3rd world where old people die in hovels.

Good point.

Since the vaporous Romney "plan" is still being formulated, debated, and will obviously never be implemented (since he won't be President), I don't know what it would look like but lets say you have one of these new Medicare vouchers for X amount of dollars. What if your visit costs more? Then what?

Again, not sure how it will work...but then again, neither is the Governor.

Seriously, if there was an "I" next to his name, most of his supporters would be pointing at the Governor and wondering what his problem is.
 

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