‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney

[bripat9643]

Articles: How 'The Shy Republican' Could Be Masking a Landslide


At time of writing, polls show the race for the presidency to be tight. General consensus seems to be that whoever wins, the 2012 election will be won by a bat squeak.

Yet to many, especially those of us on the right, it seems peculiar that Obama is still remotely in the race. With high unemployment, minimal GDP growth, a 100% increase in food stamp costs, and out-of-control spending, many conservatives are asking how just under half of the American population can possibly want more of the same.

While it is not possible now to get into the many reasons certain people will vote Democrat in November, I propose that all polls, not just left-leaning polls, may be being strongly misled by their data, and Romney/Ryan may actually have a huge lead not seen in polls.

It is my contention that this is due to a mix of the infamous Bradley effect and what is known in Britain as "the Shy Tory Factor," with both coming together to exaggerate just how popular Obama is in America.

The Bradley effect is a much-debated polling distortion that is easy to demonstrate but difficult to prove. The idea that when a black or minority candidate is on the ticket against a white candidate, certain voters may lie under pressure from a pollster, worried about being seen as a racist for choosing the white candidate over the minority, sounds highly plausible. The consequence, should the Bradley effect be in play, would be a skewed poll indicating that the minority candidate is in better political shape than his or her opponent...

 

[8537]

The Bradley Effect would struggle to explain why every major poll was within the MoE in 2008.

 

[IGetItAlready]

I've been thinking a lot about "the Bradley effect" lately.
While most analysts will tell you the Bradley effect played no part in Bradley's run, I'm thinking this particular election is an entirely different deal.
The same irrational sense of white guilt that got Obama elected will still lead potential voters to pat themselves on the back for their own level of tolerance and support of racial diversity when answering polling questions but when it's just you and the machine inside your little booth the question of "what the hell am I going to do if things don't improve within then next few years", imho, will lead a hell of a lot of voters to do the right thing for the nation.

Hope I'm right as my kids deserve a "fair shot" and the America I grew up in is the only place I know in which they'll get it.

 

[Papageorgio]

I have wondered the same, for whatever reason, Bush had the benefit of it.

It is an interesting theory.