The ANC: the story of a liberation movement that’s lost its lustre

[Disir]

South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) celebrates its 107th birthday this year against a backdrop of an election campaign it’s likely to win handily – but which is likely to mask its longer-term decline.

January 8 is the day the ANC was founded. It observes it by issuing a statement compiled by its national executive committee which sets out its plans for the year. The statement, once the subject of endless analysis, is now often better at saying what the ANC would like to do than what it really will. But, since the ANC is much better at diagnosing the ills which beset it than fixing them, it could touch on some of the factors which ensure that even a comfortable ANC election win in May is unlikely to halt its decline.

At this stage of the campaign, the ANC seems headed for just under 60% of the vote. This would be its worst performance in a national election. But it would still be a triumph since it would be the first time since 2004 that its vote increased: since Jacob Zuma became ANC president, it has lost ground in every election, dropping to 54% in the 2016 local poll.

The general election result could create the impression that the ANC is regaining ground which it lost only because it elected a divisive and unpopular president. This will be an illusion. Many of the ANC voters who stayed away in 2016 because they were angered by Zuma and his faction will probably return. But its problems run far deeper than the identity of its previous leader. Unless it finds ways to address them, the decline will continue until its national vote sinks below 50%.
The ANC: the story of a liberation movement that's lost its lustre

If it's not working then it's time to go.

 

[Panacea]

The country is pretty much lost. ANC corruption and mismanagement have broken the beloved country.

There are four major players in the South African political scene

ANC
DP (Democratic Party)
EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters - Julius Malema)
IFP (Inkhata - Zulus)

If the ANC vote falls below 50% they can form a coalition with either the DP or the EFF, as the IFP has a very small percentage of the vote.

If the ANC for a coalition with the DP South Africa may still have a chance as Mmusi Maimane's DP is the only party that have proven it has what it takes to govern South Africa.

However the ANC is far more likely to form a coalition with the EFF, Julius Malema known for his hate speech against whites, we may well see South Africa burn if he doesn't get his way.