That's why... US-Turkey deepen cooperation.

Discussion in 'General Global Topics' started by ekrem, Apr 6, 2009.

  1. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    The heading of this thread is off course the US centrist wish.
    In this thread i will try to explain what will happen in the next years within the Muslim world and USA position within this geography.

    First, fact-finding. We will look how Turkey progressed after 2003, where due to damage between Bush government and Erdogan government relations of both countries have been put to a freezy low-level autopilot mode.

    According to Germany's biggest bank, the "Deutsche Bank", these datas can be given in regardance to Turkey:
    1. Foreign Trade:
    2003: 116,4 Billion $
    2008: 334,5 Billion $
    almost triplication in 6 years.

    2. Public Debt in % of GDP:
    2003: 79,8%
    2008: 49 %
    a 30,8% decrease within 6 years.

    3. Share of Foreign debt between 2.
    2003: 23,4 %
    2008: 16,5%
    http://www.dbresearch.de/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?keiYears=all&regionid=REGI0000000000000138&rwdspl=0&rwnode=CIB_INTERNET_EN-PROD$RSNN0000000000020149&rwobj=kei.Start.class&rwsite=CIB_INTERNET_EN-PROD

    I mention these datas because people tend to hold tight on pictures to a thing (in this case Turkey) which was saved in the brain when that thing was of importance.
    And I know, that from people who do not follow Turkey, the pictures of Turkey were shot/saved in 2003. The "bad Turks gave us a rejection"-psychology. The world moves on.

    What will happen till 2020?
    "The Economist"-magazine in its "Foresight 2020"-study predicts Turkey will grow annualy 4,4% in that period to 2020. The USA will grow 2,9%, Germany and France each 1,9% annualy till 2020.
    The same study says, that Turkey will contribute to worldwide growth with a share of 1,3% till 2020. That is more then Japan with 1,1% and close to France with 1,5%. The USA will contribute with 15,9% and China with 26,7% to total worldwide economic growth till 2020.

    The study hosted on the Sabanci University sub-page for "Competitiveness Forum":
    http://ref.advancity.net/En/Moduller/Makaleler/MakaleForm.aspx?KodAl=0&mdId=300

    By 2020 Turkey will be ascenting into the Top-10 economies, as Stratfor founder George Friedman says:
    MINA Breaking News - US Expert: Turkey will 'rule' former Ottoman territories by 2040

    Conclusion
    1. Turkey is growing, will grow further
    2. rapidly increasing its foreign trade (=interaction with the world)
    3. decreasing public debt
    4. decreasing share of external debt within public debt (=decreasing potential of pressure against Turkish government by foreign lenders)


    The period before 2003

    Turkish relevance for USA was Pentagon centrist. Turkey was relevant for geostrategy and military reasons. There was zero interaction on cultural front, and near to zero interaction on economical/trade front.
    Turkey was mentioned in Washington only when USA did want something from Turkey either geopolitically or militarily. If Washington wanted something, it wanted it immediately and took the cooperation from Ankara for granted. We contributed to every US military adventure when contribution was asked for.

    The year 2003
    The juristification of the Iraq war and its connection to 9/11 was falsified. Turkey did neither participate nor let US troops use Turkish territory as a logistical built-up for the war. Naturally, this complicated Bush's life and everything that led to the failure of the US "Greater Middle East", its "Axis of Evil" is connected to non-Turkish participation in these adventures. Turkish backing and military contribution would have made Bush strategy a success and USA would have dealt its interests with Iran and Syria militarily. The relations have been frozen to a low-level autopilot mode, Turkey concentrated mainly on economic progression and Bush used his gun to shoot the US image and US soft-power.

    The new administration is keen to show that it has taken the right conclusions in regardance to Turkey. And, it does not matter if Democrat or Republican, as John McCain would also have showed same motivation to improve relations with Turkey.

    John McCain during election campaign:
    http://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/pressreleases/55906246-b33a-4f7e-bce5-063a79528eca.htm

    The Obama visit in Turkey follows the Hillary Clinto visit. Actually, Obama's visit in Turkey is his 2nd real state visit after Canada.
    Obama was dureing this week in Strassburg (France) and Baden-Baden (Germany). These were no visits in the protocoll of state-visit, as otherwise Obama would have gobe to Berlin and Paris.
    Strassburg and Baden-Baden co-hosted the 60th anniversary meeting of NATO-alliance. So this was a NATO purposed visit to Germany and France.
    After that Obama visited Prague (Chechia). The Chechs currently have the EU presidency and in Prague was hosted the EU-USA summit. Obama was also in London, there was the G-20 meeting.

    Obama visiting Turkey is not connected to a purpose related to an multilateral summit. This visit is a state visit, and Obama accordingly spent his first day in Turkey in the political capital Ankara. The 2nd he is in Istanbul.
    Obama showed great commitment to Ankara, he met also with every opposition party. Obama did also address Turkish parliament.
    For Turkey an US president addressing Turkish people via Turkish parliament is nothing normal.

    Full text of the US president's speech at Turkish Parliament

    Full text of the US president's speech at Turkish Parliament

    That is self-explanatory.

    Obama said also to improve US-Turkish trade relations. Current foreign trade stands just at +- 15 Billion $, which is a joke.
    The whole Obama visit is a Bush-era damage control visit and a commitment to open a new chapter in relations, not only from Pentagon centrist view. Accordingly the meetings in Ankara did not involve the Defence Minister or the Turkish General Staff.
    I do also not think that USA did requested any kind of things from Turkey, this is more a visit to revive the relationship, to listen to Turkey and show that USA will not sustain low-level autopilot mode which might let Turkey depart from transatlantic community.

    Accordingly, Turkey got out of the NATO-meeting in Strassburg and Baden-Baden a more influential role within NATO. Turkey gets the following posts within NATO:
    - NATO's deputy secretary-general
    - deputy assistant secretary-general for arms control
    - special envoy for Afghanistan
    - Turkish officers receiving key positions in the alliance's military command structure
    single - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=34820&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=218c41dc58
    Turkey is the big winner of the NATO summit.

    Stratfor analyzing what USA got from NATO, G-20 and EU meetings:
    Obama's Strategy and the Summits | STRATFOR


    A further analysis
    William Bradley: Turkey: Not the Usual Geopolitical Sandwich
     
  2. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    We will have to wait whether Turkey will fully align with USA in geopolitics. Such an alignment would act as a catalysator to US power projection. Not only could the US take advantage of Turkish dilomacy and Turkish soft-power throughout the region, but practical advantage of the Turkish war machine, which is 2nd biggest after USA within NATO.

    The USA clearly has to offer substantial rewards for Turkey not in the kind of money, but e.g. trade issues, technology, political backing in issues like North-Cyprus and such things. Turkey is rising with or without USA. We stand on our own feet and guarantee our own security. We have moved from being a regional power to being a hegemonial power, if you define hegemonial as being able to force own interests upon neighbouring states. That we have done with Syria and Greece in the 90's putting casus-belli over them both
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli#Turkey_and_Greece
    www.greekembassy.org - Athens comments on resurfaced 'casus belli' issue with Turkey
    Turkey sets stage for invasion of Syria | Article from Chicago Sun-Times
    , and it seems Israel is the next candidate to align under Turkish interests by making peace with Syria.

    We do not have fear of the 21st century, the insignificance of Turkey in the 20th century was a mix of economical weakness and self-chosen isolationism after establishing the nation-state out of WW1 chaos of the Ottomans.

    In the history of the Oguz-branch Turks the 20th century was an annomaly. Our ancestors are the reason the Crusades started, later other dynasties of ancestors mirroring the Christian Crusades the same way back. The Turk who let walk ships over mountains and its sword over 3 continents. The Turk who gave breath to Attila, Seljuk, Alparslan, Osman, Mehmet and Süleyman.
    The Turk who let its cruelity being hammered into stone as history.
     
  3. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    STRATFOR - Courting Turkey - Geopolitical Diary

     
  4. DamnYankee
    Offline

    DamnYankee No Neg Policy

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2009
    Messages:
    4,516
    Thanks Received:
    441
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +441


    Guessing that Obama has some work to do with those "allies"....

    April 6, 2009 -- Updated 0158 GMT (0958 HKT)
    Plot to assassinate Obama foiled in Turkey
    By Ed Henry
    CNN Senior White House Correspondent

    ISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- U.S. officials have taken "very seriously" a plot to assassinate President Barack Obama involving a Syrian man who was arrested late last week in Turkey, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.


    President Barack Obama addresses the Turkish parliament on Monday.

    But the officials strongly cautioned that American presidents are frequent targets of threats that are all watched very carefully, and in this case the alleged plotter did not appear to get anywhere close to Obama during his European tour.

    The officials also noted that while Obama gets more threats than usual as the first African-American U.S. president, this particular threat did not force any change to his schedule.

    "Life goes on," said one of the officials familiar with the matter, who suggested the threat may be getting more attention because there has been a heavy international focus on Obama's first overseas trip since taking office.

    White House officials declined to comment on the matter, citing a policy of not talking about security and threats around the president. U.S. Secret Service officials spoke only briefly about the case.

    "We work closely with the host country whenever there is an arrest, which we are doing in this matter," Secret Service spokesman Ed Donovan said.

    The plot was first reported by the Saudi Arabian newspaper al-Watan, which revealed that Turkish security services arrested a man of Syrian origins Friday in connection with a plan to kill Obama during his visit to Turkey. Obama was in Strasbourg, France, on Friday for a NATO summit and did not arrive in Turkey for the final leg of his trip until Sunday.

    Don't Miss
    Obama says U.S., Turkey can be model for world
    Laid-off banker finds work as Obama mimic in Turkish ad
    The Saudi paper reported the suspect, who was carrying an Al-Jazeera TV press credential in the name of "M.G.," confessed to authorities after his arrest that he and three alleged accomplices plotted to stab Obama with a knife during the Alliance of Civilizations Summit in Istanbul, which Obama attended on Monday evening. The U.S. officials confirmed those allegations, but stressed to CNN that the information provided by the man is still being verified.

    Al-Jazeera's bureau chief in Ankara, Turkey, Yucef al-Sharif, told the newspaper his news organization knew nothing about the man and suggested he may have obtained a forged press credential. According to U.S. officials, it's unclear whether the man, a permanent resident of Istanbul, had obtained a real press credential.

    On Sunday, U.S. and international journalists covering Obama's trip did face more extensive searches of their baggage than usual by the U.S. Secret Service before boarding a press charter flight from the Prague, Czech Republic, region to Ankara. The same extensive searches were conducted Monday before a flight from Ankara to Istanbul.

    But U.S. officials downplayed the possibility the more extensive searches were done out of concern that plotters may have infiltrated the media. Instead, the officials suggested that since Turkish security officials had not necessarily handled such a large crush of media before, U.S. Secret Service officials simply wanted to go the extra mile in their searches.

    Plot to assassinate Obama foiled in Turkey - CNN.com
     
  5. editec
    Offline

    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    Messages:
    41,427
    Thanks Received:
    5,598
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings:
    +5,617
    Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

    One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.
     
  6. DamnYankee
    Offline

    DamnYankee No Neg Policy

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2009
    Messages:
    4,516
    Thanks Received:
    441
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +441
    Hmmm....

    "Triple Alliance": The US, Turkey, Israel and the War on Lebanon

    Fractured Alliance? The Future of U.S.-Turkey Relations (audio) - Council on Foreign Relations

    Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush - Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End? - washingtonpost.com

    Doesn't appear to me that "long time" is such a long time.
     
  7. editec
    Offline

    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    Messages:
    41,427
    Thanks Received:
    5,598
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings:
    +5,617
    Your entire liftime.

    Long time is a relative term, I suppose
     
  8. Munin
    Offline

    Munin VIP Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2008
    Messages:
    1,300
    Thanks Received:
    92
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +95
    Yeah there you say it, will Turkey remain a secular state? Is erdogan even a secular prime minister?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdoğan#Proposed_ban_from_politics.2C_2008


    And if the turkish military (the last line of defense of Attaturks legacy) will intervene, then what about Turkey being a democracy?


    I always doubted that Turkey was a secular country, since all women need to wear headscarves in turkey (even tourists have to do this, at least that s what I ve heard from a friend of mine who has been there). But maybe that depends on where you go in Turkey?
     
  9. PoliticalChic
    Offline

    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2008
    Messages:
    55,677
    Thanks Received:
    15,571
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
    Ratings:
    +24,786

    The spotlight should be on Turkey at this time, it represents a pivotal point in geopolitics for many reasons.

    I believe that President Obama never expected to get either the 2% GDP for Stimulus nor the fighting troops from the EU. This is why he scheduled his trip to Turkey. And why he backed EU membership for Turkey so strongly.

    BTW, EU-membership isn't life or death for Turkey, as it is one of the few with strong trade ties to Russia.

    We should watch carefully, and hope that the President is more facile in his dealings with Turkey than he was with Europe. An agreement with Turkey would block Russia, and pressure on Iran would represent a greater foreign policy acumen than many credit to the President. The key may be treaty between Turkey and Armenia.

    If nothing comes of these meetings, then his G20 and Turkey trips are nothing more than photo ops, and he should be pilloried.

    Also, since the 1920's Turkey's military has taken over when the country became too religious, and then returned to democracy.

    And as far as headscarfs,
    "The court, voting by a clear majority of 9-2 against the bill, rejected the argument put forward by Prime Minister Taycip Erdogan's government that a headscarf prevents many girls from obtaining proper education.

    Instead it embraced the position of the secular forces, who had clearly spoken against the move by Erdogan's AKP party, saying this step granted Islam too much room in public life.

    This strict defence of secular principles deals a serious blow to the AKP. Indeed, the party is also awaiting a ruling from the Constitutional Court on a request from the country's chief prosecutor to shut it down because its is allegedly attepting to soften the strict partition between religion and politics. "

    EurActiv.com - Turkish court rules headscarf reform 'unconstitutional' | EU - European Information on Enlargement & Neighbours
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2009
  10. Munin
    Offline

    Munin VIP Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2008
    Messages:
    1,300
    Thanks Received:
    92
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +95
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2009

Share This Page