Temperature predictions for 2012, 2013

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Apr 7, 2012.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Anyone else care to counter this? Come on, coolers, here is your chance to oneup the warmers.

    Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

    This exercise provides a very rough estimate for 2012 and 2013 annual average surface temperatures, with a number of caveats. If solar cycle 24 continues to develop as expected, and and if an El Niño cycle develops as expected, and if there are no major volcanoes or other major changes in aerosol emissions, then this method projects a possible annual temperature record in 2012, and a likely record in 2013. In fact, because we can be confident that 2013 will be at or near a solar cycle peak, and we know the CO2-caused warming will continue upwards, 2013 will probably break the surface temperature record even if it's a moderate La Niña year (again, assuming there are no volcanic eruptions or other significant unaccounted-for effects).

    Note that Arthur Smith has done a similar analysis with very similar results, predicting a possible record in 2012 (also 0.65°C) and a likely record in 2013 (at 0.73°C without considering the ENSO influence).

    Also note that this is my [Dana Nuccitelli - dana1981] personal prediction and is not representative of Skeptical Science as a whole. So, what's your prediction?
     
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  2. whitehall
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    whitehall Gold Member

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    Feel guilty about a nice warm spring in the US when Russia is suffering from a long winter? Welcome to the cockeyed liberal world.
     
  3. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    could happen............

    Warmer years happen, indeed!!!!
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    If you read the article, you would see that we have a pretty straight forward prediction based on current data. Now the 'Coolers' state that we have been in a cooling trend since 1998, so where are your predictions of a cooler 2012, 2013?
     
  5. PredFan
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    PredFan Gold Member

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    Here's my prediction:

    It will begin to warm up in May, getting warmer and warmer until about july when it reaches it's peak in most of the US, then it will begin to slowly get cooler throught September and october then getting very cold in most of the US at the beginning of 2013. Ditto for 2013.
     
  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Can you point to a single lab experiment that show us how a .01% change in atmospheric composition by adding a wisp of CO2 does that?

    Also you forget your "wider and wider swings" out that prevents you from ever having a failed prediction

    AGW it's just not science
     
  7. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    but the warmer folks said it would be steady up in 1998. That hasnt happened. Temp predictions are as reliable as Obama in following through with campaign promises.:D

    http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=4975.3240.0.0

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-facts-to-warm-to/story-e6frg7ko-1111115855185

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/upsDownsGlobalWarming.html


    Too.......according to NASA, the oceans are cooling..................


    http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-baltimore/oceans-are-cooling-according-to-nasa


    Not that any of this really matters. Clearly, to any reasonable person, the science is murky..........but the fact of the matter is, cooling or warming, the public doesnt give a rats ass. If they did, they'd be in the face of their representatives demanding we dump fossil fuels tomorrow, outlaw fireplaces, and all live by candlelight and do away with all plastics. Oh.....no more restaurants either. You cant move food across the country on bicyle ( no more moving freight by rail or truck ). People in the Northeast would be forced to stare at the posssibllitly of freezing to death in a severe cold snap............you're talkling millions of people. Not to mention putting well over 3 million people out of a job ( fossil fuel industry coal/oil) . But only the true believers think all this is plausible thinking.

    [​IMG]


    I can say with 100% certainty...........there is ZERO % chance of ANY country adopting a totally green or even high % of green energy policy. Not in America unless the state takes over means of production. Last time I checked, maybe 5% of Americans would support that. So really........what is the point of this temperature debate?
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  8. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    Seriously for a moment.............

    Everybody on the AGW bandwagon also implicitly puts total faith in government. Those with their feet on the ground...........do not. All of the dreams of the AGW folks are predicated on the government taking taxes and spending them prudently on stuff. ( in this case, towards combating AGW). Im a bit less enthusiastic when I see government bureaucraceis like the GSA spending close to 1 million dollars for a conference in Vegas, 130K of which was for the purpose of "scouting out the facility". Oh......and $4.00/shrimp.........all on the public dime.

    Indeed.........government is as corrupt as the bad guys on Wall Street, a fact lost on a majority of the AGW crowd.


    So even if I gave the AGW crowd the benefit of the doubt on the "science", the public will never trust the government to do the right thing with their money for combating the threat that is global warming. You'd be better off giving your $$ to a snake oil salesman.
     
  9. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    AGW: It's warmer, it's cooler, it's predicted by our model!
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Straight forward predictions. Warm 2012, maybe record. Warmer 2013, almost certainly a record. But not a one of you ready to state that it will be cooler, as it should be if it is truly cooling now.
     

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