Temperature predictions for 2012, 2013

[Old Rocks]

Anyone else care to counter this? Come on, coolers, here is your chance to oneup the warmers.

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

This exercise provides a very rough estimate for 2012 and 2013 annual average surface temperatures, with a number of caveats. If solar cycle 24 continues to develop as expected, and and if an El Niño cycle develops as expected, and if there are no major volcanoes or other major changes in aerosol emissions, then this method projects a possible annual temperature record in 2012, and a likely record in 2013. In fact, because we can be confident that 2013 will be at or near a solar cycle peak, and we know the CO2-caused warming will continue upwards, 2013 will probably break the surface temperature record even if it's a moderate La Niña year (again, assuming there are no volcanic eruptions or other significant unaccounted-for effects).

Note that Arthur Smith has done a similar analysis with very similar results, predicting a possible record in 2012 (also 0.65°C) and a likely record in 2013 (at 0.73°C without considering the ENSO influence).

Also note that this is my [Dana Nuccitelli - dana1981] personal prediction and is not representative of Skeptical Science as a whole. So, what's your prediction?

 

[whitehall]

Feel guilty about a nice warm spring in the US when Russia is suffering from a long winter? Welcome to the cockeyed liberal world.

 

[skookerasbil]

could happen............

Warmer years happen, indeed!!!!

 

[Old Rocks]

If you read the article, you would see that we have a pretty straight forward prediction based on current data. Now the 'Coolers' state that we have been in a cooling trend since 1998, so where are your predictions of a cooler 2012, 2013?

 

[PredFan]

Here's my prediction:

It will begin to warm up in May, getting warmer and warmer until about july when it reaches it's peak in most of the US, then it will begin to slowly get cooler throught September and october then getting very cold in most of the US at the beginning of 2013. Ditto for 2013.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Can you point to a single lab experiment that show us how a .01% change in atmospheric composition by adding a wisp of CO2 does that?

Also you forget your "wider and wider swings" out that prevents you from ever having a failed prediction

AGW it's just not science

 

[skookerasbil]

If you read the article, you would see that we have a pretty straight forward prediction based on current data. Now the 'Coolers' state that we have been in a cooling trend since 1998, so where are your predictions of a cooler 2012, 2013?

but the warmer folks said it would be steady up in 1998. That hasnt happened. Temp predictions are as reliable as Obama in following through with campaign promises.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=4975.3240.0.0

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-facts-to-warm-to/story-e6frg7ko-1111115855185

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/upsDownsGlobalWarming.html


Too.......according to NASA, the oceans are cooling..................


http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-baltimore/oceans-are-cooling-according-to-nasa


Not that any of this really matters. Clearly, to any reasonable person, the science is murky..........but the fact of the matter is, cooling or warming, the public doesnt give a rats ass. If they did, they'd be in the face of their representatives demanding we dump fossil fuels tomorrow, outlaw fireplaces, and all live by candlelight and do away with all plastics. Oh.....no more restaurants either. You cant move food across the country on bicyle ( no more moving freight by rail or truck ). People in the Northeast would be forced to stare at the posssibllitly of freezing to death in a severe cold snap............you're talkling millions of people. Not to mention putting well over 3 million people out of a job ( fossil fuel industry coal/oil) . But only the true believers think all this is plausible thinking.

I can say with 100% certainty...........there is ZERO % chance of ANY country adopting a totally green or even high % of green energy policy. Not in America unless the state takes over means of production. Last time I checked, maybe 5% of Americans would support that. So really........what is the point of this temperature debate?

 

[skookerasbil]

Seriously for a moment.............

Everybody on the AGW bandwagon also implicitly puts total faith in government. Those with their feet on the ground...........do not. All of the dreams of the AGW folks are predicated on the government taking taxes and spending them prudently on stuff. ( in this case, towards combating AGW). Im a bit less enthusiastic when I see government bureaucraceis like the GSA spending close to 1 million dollars for a conference in Vegas, 130K of which was for the purpose of "scouting out the facility". Oh......and $4.00/shrimp.........all on the public dime.

Indeed.........government is as corrupt as the bad guys on Wall Street, a fact lost on a majority of the AGW crowd.


So even if I gave the AGW crowd the benefit of the doubt on the "science", the public will never trust the government to do the right thing with their money for combating the threat that is global warming. You'd be better off giving your $$ to a snake oil salesman.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

AGW: It's warmer, it's cooler, it's predicted by our model!

 

[Old Rocks]

Straight forward predictions. Warm 2012, maybe record. Warmer 2013, almost certainly a record. But not a one of you ready to state that it will be cooler, as it should be if it is truly cooling now.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Straight forward predictions. Warm 2012, maybe record. Warmer 2013, almost certainly a record. But not a one of you ready to state that it will be cooler, as it should be if it is truly cooling now.

Can you predict the aurora borealis too?

 

[ScienceRocks]

I honestly don't have the slightest clue on how the next 1, 2, 5 years are going to rank.

 

[IanC]

Old Rocks---skeptics dont make predictions like the warmers because we know that no one can see into the future. with all the bullshit adjustments to the historical temperature datasets it is hard enough to just predict what yesterday's temperature will be recorded as by tomorrow.

 

[Old Rocks]

So, for at least the last 30 years the climate scientists have been stating that it will get warmer due to the GHGs that we are putting into the atmosphere. And, in spite of all the denial, it has been getting warmer. And the skeptics keep claiming that there is an immenant cooling trend just around the corner, but it never comes.

Now if all this warming is just natural variability, when is the natural variability going to go the other way? Of course, if the warming is due to the GHGs, then, other than minor swings, it is not going cool at all. It will continue to get warmer.

In 1998, with a super El Nino, we set major records for warmth. In 2005, with a moderate El Nino, we equaled that record. In 2010, with a moderate El Nino, and a strong La Nina in the same year, we equaled that record again. 7 years. Then 5 years. If we have a record year in 2013, that will be 3 years. Interesting progression.

 

[IanC]

where are these skeptical predictions of cooling?

most of the skeptics that I have read say that we have a slight warming trend from recovery from the Little Ice Age with superimposed natural variability cycles, the main one being about 60 years long.

Skeptics dont make predictions, they show that warmers' predictions are wrong, because climate models are wrong and should only be used as a tool to promote further understanding not to scare the world into global socialism.

 

[IanC]

and no one besides the batshit crazy skydragon slayer types have denied that there is a non zero effect on radiative energy tranfer by increasing CO2

 

[Old Rocks]

where are these skeptical predictions of cooling?

most of the skeptics that I have read say that we have a slight warming trend from recovery from the Little Ice Age with superimposed natural variability cycles, the main one being about 60 years long.

Skeptics dont make predictions, they show that warmers' predictions are wrong, because climate models are wrong and should only be used as a tool to promote further understanding not to scare the world into global socialism.

Global Cooling As predicted, 2011 was cool 2012 will be cool

Records from all over the world show that a long sunspot cycle is followed by cooling in the next cycle and a short sunspot cycle indicates warming. The last sunspot cycle was 12.5 years and the previous one was 9.5 years. The evidence tells us that a 3 year increase in cycle length will result in cooling of at least 1°C. As the total amount of warming that has occurred since the early 1900s is 0.7°C, this is potentially very serious. We could be returning to the conditions in the little ice age.


History tells us that cooling causes crop failures, famine, disease and, often, war.


We must not forget that the climate changes naturally and we need to be prepared for climate change–be it cooling or warming.

 

[Old Rocks]

IPCC scientist: Global cooling headed our way for the next 30 years? | Watts Up With That?

IPCC scientist: Global cooling headed our way for the next 30 years?

Posted on January 11, 2010by Anthony Watts


UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.

Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself. If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.

 

[Old Rocks]

The hottest new trend in climate change may be global cooling, some researchers say.

Contrary to the commonly held scientific conclusion that the Earth is getting warmer, Dr. Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University and author of more than 150 peer-reviewed papers, has unveiled evidence for his prediction that global cooling is coming soon.

“Rather than global warming at a rate of 1 F per decade, records of past natural cycles indicate there may be global cooling for the first few decades of the 21st century to about 2030,” said Easterbrook, speaking on a scientific panel discussion with other climatologists. This, he says, will likely be followed by “global warming from about 2030 to 2060,” which will then be followed by another cooling spell from 2060 to 2090.

Easterbrook spoke before a group of about 700 scientists and government officials at the fourth International Conference on Climate Change. The conference is presented annually in Chicago by the Heartland Institute, a conservative nonprofit think tank that actively questions the theory of man's role in global warming. Last year the Institute published Climate Change Reconsidered, a comprehensive reply to the United Nations' latest report on climate change.


Read more: Global Cooling Is Coming -- and Beware the Big Chill, Scientist Warns | Fox News

 

[Old Rocks]

Global Cooling is Here
Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades


by Prof. Don J. Easterbrook

Global Cooling is Here