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LINCOLN DAVIS VULNERABILITY
Democrat incumbent Lincoln Davis's image stands at 45% Favorable to 30% Unfavorable. Davis finds himself with only 45% of the voters with a favorable opinion of him which should be concerning for a four term Congressman that won re-election in '08 with 59% of the vote. As a matter of comparison, Lincoln Davis' image stood at 65% favorable and just 15% unfavorable in September of 2008. A sitting congressman who endures a 35-point drop in his net favorability ratings in just under two years is rarely re-elected.
Davis is only at 44% on the ballot against his most likely challengers, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey (44%-33%) - well in the danger zone for an entrenched incumbent.
When voters were asked what was more important, maintaining the 4th's congressional seniority to insure the district gets its fair share of federal funding or electing a fiscal watchdog that will fight against wasteful federal spending and tax increases, they chose the fiscal watchdog by and overwhelming 74% to 14% margin.
This survey is not complicated. Congressman Davis is very likely to lose reelection this fall to any well-funded Republican challenger. The wave that is building will hit Democrat-held swing districts like the TN 4 very hard. Davis is at great risk of becoming a victim of "Obamacare" in spite of his vote against it.
I like the Dick Morris take on this particular number.Democrat incumbent Lincoln Davis's image stands at 45% Favorable to 30% Unfavorable. Davis finds himself with only 45% of the voters with a favorable opinion of him which should be concerning for a four term Congressman that won re-election in '08 with 59% of the vote. As a matter of comparison, Lincoln Davis' image stood at 65% favorable and just 15% unfavorable in September of 2008. A sitting congressman who endures a 35-point drop in his net favorability ratings in just under two years is rarely re-elected.