Taking bets on the election

[mamooth]

But, the fact remains that no one is confident enough of the current RPC predictions to do so.

Because we understand statistics, how the RCP "no tossups" prediction works, and the limitations of it.

If 3 states have a 70% win chance for Obama, odds are Obama won't win in one of those states, yet the RCP "no tossups" prediction will call all those states for Obama.

Thus, odds are Obama won't hit the RCP "no tossups" prediction. He'll most likely get 300+, but not 332.

 

[candycorn]

His point is, the Obama landslide will not be as big as we think. It will be a landslide not a mega landslide

I guess that is the best Republicans will have to gloat over

I'm taking bets Romney won't get 270 electoral votes.

I've offered it up.

The loser leaves the board. You haven't taken that bet.

Yes and I have explained to you that another bet previously taken prevents me from accepting those stakes. So I proposed a reasonable, easy, level-headed alternative that would be fun and easy to enforce and like a good Republican when presented with any alternative; you responded "nope".

 

[M14 Shooter]

Why should anyone take your bet?

I could not begn to guess and I don't really care.

But, the fact remains that no one is confident enough of the curremt RPC predictions to do so.

So what?

It really doesnt matter to me if you approve of any of this or not.

 

[M14 Shooter]

LOL. That was the Realclearpolitics poll results, not my prediction.

One that -you- touted as a sign that The Obama was going to win BIG.
Going to back up your mouth and take the bet, or not?

 

[auditor0007]

obama is going to run out of money in the middle of October and Romney will be running virtually unopposed.

I think a lot of Obama supporters are waiting to see if he needs the money or not. So far, I have only sent a small amount to his campaign, but I'm ready to send more to him and a number of other campaigns. I just want to make sure it's necessary. I mean if Obama is up by ten points in the polls come early October, he won't need it. Then I can send it to other campaigns that need it more.

 

[Listening]

Why should anyone take your bet?

I could not begn to guess and I don't really care.

But, the fact remains that no one is confident enough of the curremt RPC predictions to do so.

So what?

Maybe all your tough talking confidence isn't much more than losers bravado.

Then again, maybe you are not as interested in seeing some people leave the board as we are.

 

[FJO]

Rather than taking bets, let me make prediction, coming from my rabble-rousing, looking-for-trouble sick demented mind:

President Obama will win Electoral College vote majority, but lose the popular vote.

Kind of reverse of 2000.

But THIS time the popular vote will mean NOTHING, according to the winners.

 

[FA_Q2]

Rather than taking bets, let me make prediction, coming from my rabble-rousing, looking-for-trouble sick demented mind:

President Obama will win Electoral College vote majority, but lose the popular vote.

Kind of reverse of 2000.

But THIS time the popular vote will mean NOTHING, according to the winners.

That would be rather funny if you ask me.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Quite a bit of change since this topis was started.
Good thing no one took the bet.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I could not begn to guess and I don't really care.

But, the fact remains that no one is confident enough of the curremt RPC predictions to do so.

So what?

Maybe all your tough talking confidence isn't much more than losers bravado.

Then again, maybe you are not as interested in seeing some people leave the board as we are.

I think that's what the issue is.

Why are you interested in seeing anyone leave this board? If people on this board upset you that much, perhaps you're taking the internet too seriously.

 

[M14 Shooter]

So what?

Maybe all your tough talking confidence isn't much more than losers bravado.
Then again, maybe you are not as interested in seeing some people leave the board as we are.

I think that's what the issue is.
Why are you interested in seeing anyone leave this board?

Given the venue, its the most meaningful thing someone can bet.


Of course, the reason no one took the bet is that no one had the necessary confidence in The Obama.

 

[percysunshine]

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks
Well, if they screw up bad enough, perhaps they can change these numbers. Then again, if Romney and Ryan keep talking, maybe not.

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

http://www.usmessageboard.com/curre...-claim-its-weather-related-2.html#post5937022

I'll bet you a year-long USMB ban that The Obama won't carry 332 or more EV.
Any takers?

You will need a bookie (mod) to arrainge that bet. Do they get the usual 10% if one of us wins?

 

[M14 Shooter]

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks
Well, if they screw up bad enough, perhaps they can change these numbers. Then again, if Romney and Ryan keep talking, maybe not.

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

http://www.usmessageboard.com/curre...-claim-its-weather-related-2.html#post5937022

I'll bet you a year-long USMB ban that The Obama won't carry 332 or more EV.
Any takers?

You will need a bookie (mod) to arrainge that bet. Do they get the usual 10% if one of us wins?

I'm not sure how they'd arrrange that, but sure!

 

[Aristotle]

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks
Well, if they screw up bad enough, perhaps they can change these numbers. Then again, if Romney and Ryan keep talking, maybe not.

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

http://www.usmessageboard.com/curre...-claim-its-weather-related-2.html#post5937022

I'll bet you a year-long USMB ban that The Obama won't carry 332 or more EV.
Any takers?

I will bet you my next week's paycheck that extreme white conservatives will be upset at another Barack Hussein Obama presidency.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks
Well, if they screw up bad enough, perhaps they can change these numbers. Then again, if Romney and Ryan keep talking, maybe not.

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

http://www.usmessageboard.com/curre...-claim-its-weather-related-2.html#post5937022

I'll bet you a year-long USMB ban that The Obama won't carry 332 or more EV.
Any takers?

I will bet you my next week's paycheck that extreme white conservatives will be upset at another Barack Hussein Obama presidency.

As will any rational, thinking person.

 

[percysunshine]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/curre...-claim-its-weather-related-2.html#post5937022

I'll bet you a year-long USMB ban that The Obama won't carry 332 or more EV.
Any takers?

You will need a bookie (mod) to arrainge that bet. Do they get the usual 10% if one of us wins?

I'm not sure how they'd arrrange that, but sure!

I am guessing the mod will take 10% of the electoral vote over 10% of the year long ban.

 

[PaulS1950]

I bet the American tax payers lose.

 

[Mr. H.]

On different liberal-heavy (music fan) board, a fellow con was getting picked on. He's got some dandy tattoos. So I told him if Obama loses I'll pay for his next tat.


That shut 'em up.

 

[Listening]

I do like how he's hoping Romney doesn't lose by more than 62 electoral votes.

It is sort of a sad commentary on the expectations republicans really have for their candidate this fall.

But we still have a bet...right ?

Obama wins....I go...forever.

Obama loses....you go...forever.

No points.

 

[Noomi]

obama is going to run out of money in the middle of October and Romney will be running virtually unopposed.

It helps, being that Romney is a multi millionaire.