Take that, Nate Silver!

[Zander]

Well well well. I added this piece of data to my "Five-30-Ate" analysis (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....

Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been 6 presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six.


1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale
2012- Mitt Romney over Obama

Obviously that is just a scientific as Nate's "analysis" - which is to say it is non-scientific.


Republicans Have Won Every November 6th Presidential Election Since 1860

 

[R.D.]

Let's hope we can continue the streak

 

[Zander]

It's science and math. It can't be beat. Nate Silver told me so.....

 

[mamooth]

The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.

RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

AP O271-R206
AP Analysis: Advantage Obama in race for electoral votes

InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election

 

[Zander]

The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.

RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

AP O271-R206
AP Analysis: Advantage Obama in race for electoral votes

InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election

I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him.

Maybe he hates himself? He will either be remembered as "that idiot who carried Obama's poll water" (75% chance of that) or "that boy genius who called his (count 'em!) 2nd!! Election" (25% chance) ... Yep, the Boy Genius has only done this once before.....

 

[Luddly Neddite]

It's science and math. It can't be beat. Nate Silver told me so.....

I hope you're being sarcastic cuz that's really really dumb.

But then, the right isn't known for their math or science, are they.

 

[AceRothstein]

I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him.

Yet you went out of your way to create a thread on an online message board about him.

 

[Trajan]

Well well well. I added this piece of data to my "Five-30-Ate" analysis (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....

Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been 6 presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six.


1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale
2012- Mitt Romney over Obama

Obviously that is just a scientific as Nate's "analysis" - which is to say it is non-scientific.


Republicans Have Won Every November 6th Presidential Election Since 1860

that would be funny BUT, Nate works for the NY Times , that's right, the NY- TIMES so, get back in your hate cave grandpa...

 

[Leweman]

The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.

RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

AP O271-R206
AP Analysis: Advantage Obama in race for electoral votes

InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election

the aggregate of a bunch of wrong polls is a wrong aggregate. But keep pointing to the polls on Nov 7 if you want.

 

[elvis]

What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?

 

[Zander]

What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?

Already in the numbers bub......

Here at Five-30-Ate we use the Redskins RB1 Runs per carry/games at home divided by the RB2 RPC divided by away games, then multiply by 16 in series and parallel, and take the square root of the product for a whole series of other calculation, projections and wild ass guesses. It's all very scientific and in no way politically motivated. We are scientists here at Five-30-Ate, scientists who are dedicated to the scientific craft of aggregating polls, cherry picking data, and drawing erroneous conclusions. It's a science. We even wear lab coats! Here is a photo of our team!! Collaborating!! Scientifically!!

At any rate, after applying the Washington Redskins formula to the 27th decimal point, Obama has a 97.2% chance of losing.

 

[Oddball]

What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?

Already in the numbers bub......

Here at Five-30-Ate we use the Redskins RB1 Runs per carry/games at home divided by the RB2 RPC divided by away games, then multiply by 16 in series and parallel, and take the square root of the product for a whole series of other calculation, projections and wild ass guesses. It's all very scientific and in no way politically motivated. We are scientists here at Five-30-Ate, scientists who are dedicated to the scientific craft of aggregating polls, cherry picking data, and drawing erroneous conclusions. It's a science. We even wear lab coats! Here is a photo of our team!! Collaborating!! Scientifically!!

At any rate, after applying the Washington Redskins formula to the 27th decimal point, Obama has a 97.2% chance of losing.

Merton Hanks agrees!

 

[Moonglow]

I would hold my breath on that one.

 

[Amazed]

I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him.

Yet you went out of your way to create a thread on an online message board about him.

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....funny you loons never talk about that

 

[Amazed]

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?

 

[AceRothstein]

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?

Can you point out where that is on his site? I'm not able to locate. Not trying to call you out, I'd just like to see that information.

 

[Amazed]

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?

Can you point out where that is on his site? I'm not able to locate. Not trying to call you out, I'd just like to see that information.

Its on the header to his other EV Map, the header is red.

 

[mamooth]

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?

Of course we acknowledge it. What's the point? We understand statistics, so we understand what the leaners mean, how it would be dishonest and misleading to not take them into account.

 

[tjvh]

Who the fuck is Nate Silver?

 

[Oddball]

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?

Of course we acknowledge it. What's the point? We understand statistics, so we understand what the leaners mean, how it would be dishonest and misleading to not take them into account.

If you understood statistics half as well as you claim to, you wouldn't be a Goebbels warming moonbat.