Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America

[Disir]

Dr. Adam Lowther is Director, School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies, Air Force Global Strike Command. Alex Littlefield is a professor at Feng Chia University.


For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China’s aggressive efforts to assert questionable claims in the South and East China Sea, enforce a disputed Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), build the rocket/missile and naval capabilities needed to invade Taiwan, and build a substantial ballistic missile capability all work to create a situation where conflict between the U.S. and the PRC could occur and rapidly escalate. Given that American political and military leaders have a poor understanding of Chinese ambitions and particularly their opaque nuclear thinking, there is ample reason to be concerned that a future conflict could escalate to a limited nuclear conflict.

Thus, it is worth taking a look at the PRC with an eye toward offering insight into Chinese motivation and thinking when it comes to how a possible crisis over Taiwan could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

Chinese Capabilities

In their latest estimate, Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris assess that the Second Artillery Corps possesses forty long-range nuclear missiles that can strike the United States if fired from China’s eastern seaboard and an additional twenty that could hit Hawaii and Alaska. The challenge for China, is reaching the East Coast – home to the nation’s capital and largest economic centers.

To overcome this challenge China is also developing its JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) which is a sea-based variant of the DF-31 land-mobile long-range missile that will go to sea on Jin-class submarines. China may also be developing a new mobile missile, the DF-41, which will carry multiple warheads, giving the Chinese a way to potentially defeat an American ballistic missile defense system. It is worth noting that the quantity, though not the quality, of China’s nuclear arsenal is only limited by its dwindling stock of weapons grade plutonium.

This raises the question; to what end is China developing and deploying its nuclear arsenal?
Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America The Diplomat

This is one (out of many) possible scenario that is interesting to take a look at.

 

[waltky]

Obama armin' Taiwan to the teeth...

US Announces $1.8B Arms Sales for Taiwan
Dec 16, 2015 | WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration announced Wednesday a $1.83 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the first offered by the U.S. to the self-governing island in four years. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has said the sale, which was expected, should be canceled to avoid harming its relations across the Taiwan Strait and between China and the U.S.

The administration notified Congress that the proposed arms package includes two decommissioned U.S. Navy frigates, anti-tank missiles, amphibious assault vehicles, and Stinger surface-to-air missiles. There's also support for Taiwan's capabilities in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and a weapons system to defend against anti-ship missiles. Congress has 30 days to review the sale, but it's unlikely to raise objections. There's been mounting bipartisan concern that Taiwan is inadequately armed to defend itself against an increasingly powerful mainland China.

David McKeeby, a State Department spokesman on political-military affairs, said the package is consistent with U.S. support for Taiwan's ability to defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act. Republican lawmakers quickly welcomed the announcement, but called for more frequent arms sales to Taiwan. "I remain deeply concerned about the administration's delays that needlessly dragged out this process," said Rep. Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "In fact, some Taiwanese requests have still not seen the light of day. We should handle arms transfers for Taiwan just as we would for any other close security partner."

Taiwan's military fire artillery from self-propelled Howitzers during the annual Han Kuang exercises in Hsinchu, north eastern Taiwan.​

Sen. John McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the U.S. must establish a more regularized process for considering Taiwan requests, "in order to avoid extended periods in which a fear of upsetting the U.S.-China relationship may harm Taiwan's defense capabilities." The administration has announced more than $12 billion in arms sales to Taiwan since 2010, but none since $5.9 billion in sales in September 2011 that included upgrades for Taiwan's F-16 fighter jets. That drew a diplomatic protest from Beijing, which suspended some military exchanges with the United States. It did not seriously impair ties. President Barack Obama has sought greater cooperation with China on issues such as climate change, and the two sides have increased military exchanges to reduce the risk of conflict. But at the same time, relations have been roiled by China's construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea and allegations of Chinese cyber theft.

In Beijing on Tuesday, China's Foreign Ministry issued a stern warning that the sale threatened relations with the U.S. On Wednesday, Ma Xiaoguang, China's spokesman for the Cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office, reiterated China's opposition to arms sales to Taiwan from any country and called for Taiwan to "treasure" improved relations with the mainland. Relations across the Taiwan Strait have undergone a steady improvement over the past two decades, especially under the China-friendly administration of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou.

US Announces $1.8B Arms Sales for Taiwan | Military.com

 

[waltky]

Mebbe dey gonna quit buyin' our debt?...

China Threatens Sanctions Over US Arms Sale to Taiwan
December 17, 2015 - The Obama administration's Wednesday announcement that it plans to sell $1.83 billion in arms to Taiwan has drawn official protest from China, which is threatening arms manufacturers with sanctions.

China's Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang summoned U.S. Charge d'Affaires Kaye Lee, the second-highest ranking U.S. diplomat in Beijing. The Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement that Zheng said China will "take necessary measures, including the imposition of sanctions against companies participating in the arms sale to Taiwan." The U.S. State Department formally notified Congress Wednesday of its plan to sell two naval warships, anti-tank missiles, amphibious assault vehicles and Stinger surface-to-air missiles. It's the first arms package sale to Taiwan in four years. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory, and has threatened to invade the island if it declares its independence. A spokesman for China's foreign ministry urged the Obama administration to cancel the sale "and do something more conducive for China-U.S. relations and the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations."

U.S. State Department spokesman David McKeeby said the deal is consistent with the U.S. commitment to provide sufficient weapons to maintain Taiwan's ability to defend itself. The massive contract, which includes two Perry-class Frigates, Javelin anti-tank missiles, TOW 2B anti-tank missiles, AAV-7 Amphibious Assault Vehicles and a range of other equipment, comes at a time of reconciliation between China and Taiwan, which have been separated since 1949. The deal also coincides with Washington's worries that Beijing is militarizing parts of the South China Sea. The White House decision found wide support Thursday on Capitol Hill, with lawmakers from both parties expressing praise for the deal. "I have always felt very kindly toward the brave people of Taiwan, who faces all kinds of threats [and] bullying by the Beijing government, and ... I think the U.S. needs to stand behind Taiwan and help them in any way they can," said Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY), ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Taiwan​

Republicans also welcomed the arms sale, but criticized the Obama administration for delaying action. "We need for it to be over and done with," said Congressman Randy Weber (R-TX). "They need those arms.” China analyst Ian Easton of the Project 2049 Institute called the sale "a strategic message" that signals "a renewed commitment to a free, democratic and secure Taiwan." "And that makes it very important at the strategic level, and also important at the tactical level," he told VOA. "The most important thing is the political message that it sent to Beijing and Taipei."

According to Asia military expert Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, the sale is critical to maintaining peaceable cross-strait relations. “Our arms sales to Taiwan, continued arm sales, make it possible [to maintain] what [China's] foreign minister called for the peaceful development of cross strait relations," he said. "It gives Taiwan the confidence that it requires to go forward in its attempt to fashion a peaceful relationship with China."He also said the deal serves to preserve peaceful U.S.-China relations. Although Washington does not formally recognize Taiwan's government, federal law requires the United States to sell arms to the self-ruled island.

China Threatens Sanctions Over US Arms Sale to Taiwan

 

[Indeependent]

I'm not worried, I don't buy Bathroom Tissue made in China.

 

[waltky]

But would Taiwan be annihilated in the process?...

Taiwan arms deal enough to give China bloody nose, but no more
Fri Dec 18, 2015 - A new U.S. arms package for Taiwan will help boost the self-ruled island's ability to inflict a bloody nose on China in the attempt of an attack, enough to make Beijing think twice before any military adventure.

But Taiwan, which is expected to vote in a new government next month less friendly to China, needs advanced weapons such as the latest fighter jets or submarine-making technology if it stands a chance of holding off a concerted Chinese assault before U.S. forces come to the rescue. "The idea is to complicate China's scenarios, to make them pause, to get them to think twice before they attack," said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.

Soldiers fire M115 203mm howitzers during the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Kinmen, Taiwan​

China quickly criticized this week's $1.83 billion deal, the first arms sales to Taiwan that the Obama administration has approved in four years, saying it interferes with its sovereignty over Taiwan. The deal includes two Navy frigates, combat systems for mine-sweepers, missiles, amphibious attack vehicles and communications systems. Compared to China's ambitious build-up of its military, the world's largest, Taiwan's arms deals are aimed at survivability. Giving its latest assessment on China's forces in September, Taiwan's defense ministry indicated Beijing could devote 400,000 of its 1.24 million-strong ground force in combat against the island. That would give it a two-to-one advantage against Taiwan's 215,000 full time troops.

Taiwan is highly vulnerable to a quick strike, experts say. Chinese fighter jets could scream across the narrow Taiwan Strait in minutes and take out Taiwan's air fields, while China rains down some of the hundreds of missiles it is believed to have targeted at the island. Still, maintaining an updated stockpile of military equipment and munitions - like the items in this week's arms deal - is as important as having "big-ticket" items to sustain Taiwan's self defense, said Shirley Kan, a retired Congressional researcher who has tracked U.S. arms sales to Taiwan since 1990

WASHINGTON "PROTECTION PLEDGE"

See also:

Exclusive: Japan's far-flung island defense plan seeks to turn tables on China
Fri Dec 18, 2015 - Japan is fortifying its far-flung island chain in the East China Sea under an evolving strategy that aims to turn the tables on China's navy and keep it from ever dominating the Western Pacific Ocean, Japanese military and government sources said.

The United States, believing its Asian allies - and Japan in particular - must help contain growing Chinese military power, has pushed Japan to abandon its decades-old bare-bones home island defense in favor of exerting its military power in Asia. Tokyo is responding by stringing a line of anti-ship, anti-aircraft missile batteries along 200 islands in the East China Sea stretching 1,400 km (870 miles) from the country's mainland toward Taiwan.

Japanese vessels are seen off Genkaijima Island, north of Fukuoka on Japan's southwestern island of Kyushu​

Interviews with a dozen military planners and government policymakers reveal that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's broader goal to beef up the military has evolved to include a strategy to dominate the sea and air surrounding the remote islands. While the installations are not secret, it is the first time such officials have spelled out that the deployment will help keep China at bay in the Western Pacific and amounts to a Japanese version of the "anti-access/area denial" doctrine, known as "A2/AD" in military jargon, that China is using to try to push the United States and its allies out of the region.

Chinese ships sailing from their eastern seaboard must pass through this seamless barrier of Japanese missile batteries to reach the Western Pacific, access to which is vital to Beijing both as a supply line to the rest of the world's oceans and for the projection of its naval power. China's President Xi Jinping has set great store in developing an ocean-going "blue water" navy capable of defending the country's growing global interests. To be sure, there is nothing to stop Chinese warships from sailing through under international law, but they will have to do so in within the crosshairs of Japanese missiles, the officials told Reuters.

FIRST ISLAND CHAIN

 

[waltky]

Taiwan won't recognize Chinese air defense zone over South China Sea...

Taiwan says won't recognize Chinese air defense zone over South China Sea
Mon Jun 6, 2016 - Taiwan's new defense minister said on Monday the island would not recognize any air defense zone declared by China over the South China Sea, as the island's top security agency warned such a move could usher in a wave of regional tension.

U.S. officials have expressed concern that an international court ruling expected in coming weeks on a case brought by the Philippines against China over its South China Sea claims could prompt Beijing to declare an air defense identification zone, or ADIZ, as it did over the East China Sea in 2013. China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims, as well as close military ties with Washington. "We will not recognize any ADIZ by China," Taiwan defense minister Feng Shih-kuan told lawmakers in a parliamentary session. The comments come after Taiwan's new government of President Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was sworn in last month. Tsai's election victory overturned eight-years of China-friendly Nationalist rule on the island.

FILE PHOTO - The center portion of the Subi Reef runway is shown in this Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative​

China drew condemnation from Japan and the United States when it imposed its ADIZ, in which aircraft are supposed to identify themselves to Chinese authorities, above the East China Sea. China has neither confirmed nor denied it plans such a zone for the South China Sea, saying that a decision would be based on the threat level and that it had every right to set one up. "In the future, we don't rule out China designating an ADIZ. If China is on track to announce this, it could usher in a new wave of tension in the region," Taiwan's National Security Bureau said in a report presented to parliament.

'INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS'

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday the United States would consider a Chinese air defense zone over the South China Sea "provocative and destabilizing". Speaking at the beginning of a high-level strategic dialogue in Beijing on Monday, Kerry said he would make it clear the United States is looking for a peaceful resolution to disputes in the South China Sea. "The only position we've taken is, let's not resolve this by unilateral action, let's resolve this through rule of law, through diplomacy, through negotiation, and we urge all nations to find a diplomatic solution rooted in international standards and rule of law," he said. China's top diplomat, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, said China "resolutely makes it own contribution to peace, stability and development". China has been angered by what it views as provocative U.S. military patrols close to islands China controls in the South China Sea. The United States says the patrols are to protect freedom of navigation.

Taiwan's defense ministry said in its own report it would strengthen its defenses on Pratas Island, in the north of the South China Sea, and on Itu Aba in the Spratly Islands. Feng told lawmakers Taiwan would send additional ammunition to Itu Aba for its anti-aircraft guns in the next month. The move is largely symbolic as the guns are not considered advanced weaponry. The ministry said China is building up its military presence in the South China Sea with deployments of anti-missile systems, drones and fast missile ships in the area. Last month, Beijing demanded an end to U.S. surveillance near China after two Chinese fighter jets carried out what the Pentagon said was an "unsafe" intercept of a U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea.

Taiwan says won't recognize Chinese air defense zone over South China Sea

See also:

hina vows to stand ground on South China Sea territory claims
June 5, 2016 -- China flexed its muscles during Asia's largest defense summit that concluded Sunday saying it would stand its ground on claims in the South China Sea.

"We do not make trouble, but we have no fear of trouble," said Admiral Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of staff of the People's Liberation Army, who led the Chinese delegation at the summit. The summit concluded amid growing fears of a legal and military showdown in the South China Sea over China's rapid construction of artificial islands with helipads, ports and airstrips in one of the world's most bitterly contested waterways, Al Jazeera reported.

The United States has protested China's shows of force, sending warships and aircraft carriers to the region. On Friday at the summit, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter warned China was at risk of "erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation" if it continued with its policies in the region. During the weekend Shagri-La Dialogue, Chinese military officials said they plan to ignore a legal ruling from the Philippines challenging China's claim of the disputed waters. The South China Sea is considered a key shipping route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is expected within weeks.

Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo addressed the tensions resulting from overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, saying the issue had "become overheated because of provocations of certain countries for their own selfish interests," CNN reported. He went on to reiterate that Beijing would not recognize a pending decision of an international tribunal in The Hague in a case brought by the Philippines contesting China's claim to some territory in the region. Numerous countries have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, including China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. All dispute the sovereignty of various island chains and surrounding waters, which has triggered a number of clashes and standoffs in recent years.

France plans to urge European Union nations to coordinate navy patrols to ensure a "regular and visible" presence in the disputed sea, the latest sign of international push back to China's expanding military clout in the area, Bloomberg reported. France's government views protection of the seas as critical from an economic standpoint and is concerned that a loss of such rights in the South China Sea may lead to similar problems in the Arctic Ocean or Mediterranean Sea, Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said during the summit.

China vows to stand ground on South China Sea territory claims