Swine Flu Alert!!!!!!

[saveliberty]

You took it out of context. It is your fail. 98% reading comprehension btw. Take Obama's advice eagleseven. Don't jump to conclusions.

This is what Sinatra cited, and it is wrong:

WASHINGTON - The death rate from the pandemic H1N1 swine flu is likely lower than earlier estimates, an expert in infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

New estimates suggest that the death rate compares to a moderate year of seasonal influenza, said Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University.

"It's mildest in kids. That's one of the really good pieces of news in this pandemic," Lipsitch told a meeting of flu experts being held by the U.S. Institute of Medicine.

"Barring any changes in the virus, I think we can say we are in a category 1 pandemic. This has not become clear until fairly recently."

The Pandemic Severity Index set by the U.S. government has five categories of pandemic, with a category 1 being comparable to a seasonal flu epidemic...

Is English your second language?

No, I just bothered to read the entire article to put the quote in context. If you read jump out of the plane, would you do it, or read ALL the instructions about putting the chute on first?

 

[Sinatra]

You took it out of context. It is your fail. 98% reading comprehension btw. Take Obama's advice eagleseven. Don't jump to conclusions.

This is what Sinatra cited, and it is wrong:

WASHINGTON - The death rate from the pandemic H1N1 swine flu is likely lower than earlier estimates, an expert in infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

New estimates suggest that the death rate compares to a moderate year of seasonal influenza, said Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University.

"It's mildest in kids. That's one of the really good pieces of news in this pandemic," Lipsitch told a meeting of flu experts being held by the U.S. Institute of Medicine.

"Barring any changes in the virus, I think we can say we are in a category 1 pandemic. This has not become clear until fairly recently."

The Pandemic Severity Index set by the U.S. government has five categories of pandemic, with a category 1 being comparable to a seasonal flu epidemic...

Is English your second language?

What is wrong in that estimate?

You appear to be mistaking the rise in overall pediatric deaths by about 40 or so this year over previous years year as evidence that the swine flu was far worse on those under age 18 than the regular flu. The doctor in the cited article was referencing the total pediatric population - and it does in fact appear he was correct - the vast majority of kids who get the swine flu recover quickly - perhaps more quickly that the regular flu. Also, with the current rate of decline of overall swine flu cases being so dramatic, it also appears this swine flu has less "legs" than the regular flu - making it less virulent overall.

A rise in 40 or so deaths in a population numbering in the millions upon millions is statistically insignificant, and utterly unworthy of the hysteria surrounding H1N1.

With each passing week, the statistics will bear this assessment out even more - just as was predicted by me a couple of weeks ago...

 

[geauxtohell]

You took it out of context. It is your fail. 98% reading comprehension btw. Take Obama's advice eagleseven. Don't jump to conclusions.

This is what Sinatra cited, and it is wrong:

WASHINGTON - The death rate from the pandemic H1N1 swine flu is likely lower than earlier estimates, an expert in infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

New estimates suggest that the death rate compares to a moderate year of seasonal influenza, said Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University.

"It's mildest in kids. That's one of the really good pieces of news in this pandemic," Lipsitch told a meeting of flu experts being held by the U.S. Institute of Medicine.

"Barring any changes in the virus, I think we can say we are in a category 1 pandemic. This has not become clear until fairly recently."

The Pandemic Severity Index set by the U.S. government has five categories of pandemic, with a category 1 being comparable to a seasonal flu epidemic...

Is English your second language?

No, I just bothered to read the entire article to put the quote in context. If you read jump out of the plane, would you do it, or read ALL the instructions about putting the chute on first?

Now this is just getting silly.

Anyways.

Moving on................

Swine Flu is more virulent than the seasonal flu, as per the CDC statements (and not Sinatra's personal confidants) and the current M/M among the pediatric population is higher now than it was projected to be in six weeks.

Sinatra is convinced that the flu has peaked, but that has not been stated by the CDC.

 

[Sinatra]

You took it out of context. It is your fail. 98% reading comprehension btw. Take Obama's advice eagleseven. Don't jump to conclusions.

This is what Sinatra cited, and it is wrong:

WASHINGTON - The death rate from the pandemic H1N1 swine flu is likely lower than earlier estimates, an expert in infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

New estimates suggest that the death rate compares to a moderate year of seasonal influenza, said Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University.

"It's mildest in kids. That's one of the really good pieces of news in this pandemic," Lipsitch told a meeting of flu experts being held by the U.S. Institute of Medicine.

"Barring any changes in the virus, I think we can say we are in a category 1 pandemic. This has not become clear until fairly recently."

The Pandemic Severity Index set by the U.S. government has five categories of pandemic, with a category 1 being comparable to a seasonal flu epidemic...

Is English your second language?

No, I just bothered to read the entire article to put the quote in context. If you read jump out of the plane, would you do it, or read ALL the instructions about putting the chute on first?

____

You are correct - the doctor was discussing the overall pediatric population - and for the vast majority of these kids, swine flu was in fact, a mild flu virus. A minute segment of that population that in most cases already had pre-existing and serious medical conditions, did appear to be at higher risk with the swine flu than the regular flu, but even then those numbers are insignificant when place against he millions upon millions of the total pediatric population.

Glad to see you understand that - keep up the good fight against this still-ongoing swine flu ignorance!!

And know that the actual statistics are on your side...
___

 

[geauxtohell]

____

You are correct - the doctor was discussing the overall pediatric population - and for the vast majority of these kids, swine flu was in fact, a mild flu virus. A minute segment of that population that in most cases already had pre-existing and serious medical conditions, did appear to be at higher risk with the swine flu than the regular flu, but even then those numbers are insignificant when place against he millions upon millions of the total pediatric population.

Glad to see you understand that - keep up the good fight against this still-ongoing swine flu ignorance!!

And know that the actual statistics are on your side...
___

____

You are correct - the doctor was discussing the overall pediatric population - and for the vast majority of these kids, swine flu was in fact, a mild flu virus. A minute segment of that population that in most cases already had pre-existing and serious medical conditions, did appear to be at higher risk with the swine flu than the regular flu, but even then those numbers are insignificant when place against he millions upon millions of the total pediatric population.

Glad to see you understand that - keep up the good fight against this still-ongoing swine flu ignorance!!

And know that the actual statistics are on your side...
___

There you go again with your "sinatra-statistology".

Please feel free to look at the graph I provided, that shows a massive spike in flu pediatric M/M this year as compared to others and explain how this virus isn't a danger to the entire pediatric population.

Finally, again you use a derivation of the "more children are killed by their parents than the flu!"

but even then those numbers are insignificant when place against he millions upon millions of the total pediatric population.

Again, it's tasteless and misses the point.

 

[eagleseven]

What is wrong in that estimate?

Two months after that article was written, it is clear that H1N1 is most severe, not mildest, in children.

You appear to be mistaking the rise in overall pediatric deaths by about 40 or so this year over previous years year as evidence that the swine flu was far worse on those under age 18 than the regular flu. The doctor in the cited article was referencing the total pediatric population - and it does in fact appear he was correct - the vast majority of kids who get the swine flu recover quickly

This was also the case with the Spanish Flu...the vast majority of patients recovered quickly from the 1918 Spanish Flu. Still was the worst pandemic the world has seen.

perhaps more quickly that the regular flu.

Unsubstantiated. I'd ask you to not mix your personal opinions with those of the experts, but you've been doing that for over a month now...

Also, with the current rate of decline of overall swine flu cases being so dramatic, it also appears this swine flu has less "legs" than the regular flu - making it less virulent overall.

This may be due to:
1. A fluke.

2. Our mitigation and vaccination efforts are working, despite people like you.

3. H1N1 is fizzling out.

4. A combination of #2 and #3.

In order to stroke your ego, you immediately jumped to conclusion #3. You may be right, you may be wrong, but it simply too early to tell.

Sorry to interrupt your circle-jerk..

A rise in 40 or so deaths in a population numbering in the millions upon millions is statistically insignificant, and utterly unworthy of the hysteria surrounding H1N1.

You're the only one who's hysterical here, believing this is a conspiracy to pass healthcare reform, or some other bullshit...

With each passing week, the statistics will bear this assessment out even more - just as was predicted by me a couple of weeks ago...

I do hope weekly cases continue to go down...and that people continue to make mitigation efforts. If this happens, I won't be sucking your prick like certain posters here.

 

[Sinatra]

A great article last month from Pediatrician Dr. Jay Gordon regarding the false hysteria surrounding the swine flu and the media-driven hype regarding its impacts on the pediatric population...

___

Swine Flu, Other Viruses and High Anxiety -- October 12, 2009


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We're a month into the school year and it's the time of year when it seems our kids are spending more days sick than well.

Please don't be fooled into thinking that this winter is so different from previous winters.

Swine Flu does not pose a realistic risk to your family: There will be millions of cases reported and rare fatalities highly publicized.

Some of us will get high fevers and have to miss school and work for a few days and 99.9999% of us will remain completely unaffected after the flu season except that those who contract Swine Flu this year will be protected if it gets meaner and more virulent in coming years as expected.

Every winter there are dozens and dozens of different viruses. The immune system is built by catching and beating these bugs and acquiring antibodies and "memory cells" for the next time the virus appears.

There is no way around this process and no shortcut. Children, in particular, must suffer through a lot of winter illnesses because their immune systems are so inexperienced.

Colds and coughs have an acute phase of 2, 3 or 4 days during which children are contagious and may need to stay home from school.

Following this contagious period, there can be extra mucus, congestion, cough and malaise for another week or so. By the end of this ten-day period, most children will have been exposed to, and maybe contracted, another 2 or 3 other viruses! It's really no surprise that your children and many others might seem to be sick for weeks on end.

Some children and adults have allergies which compound the congestion and coughing problem.

A new study showed that when you examine the blood of children who've been sick for a couple weeks or more the majority of these kids show antibodies to 2 or 3 different viruses: In other words, children and adults don't have ten-day viral illnesses, they have a series of 2 and 3 day bugs which might look daunting but are actually just a part of a normal winter viral season.

Why do we get more illnesses in winter? There are more social and school gatherings in confined spaces, the air is drier, more people travel during winter holidays and we eat more junk food during these months.

New viruses get more people sick than older ones and this year the Swine Flu H1N1 virus is the newest common infection.

The media are taking advantage of this situation and are creating more anxiety about winter illness than at any time in recent memory.


Except, maybe, for the SARS scare.

Or the Bird Flu scare.

Or the West Nile Virus scare.

The CDC released fatality data this past week and were quite clear in their assessment of this relatively non-virulent strain of influenza:

75-80% of the 76 children had significant or severe underlying medical problems.

Any child's death creates an extremely difficult public discussion but of the 300,000,000 Americans there are 45,000,000 children and teens and there have been 76 deaths of younger people. About 15 of these deaths occurred in seemingly healthy children and teens.

Please put all of these numbers in the proper perspective and realize that there are many important lifesaving topics for the media to publicize but none which sell papers and create TV viewership quite as well as this new flu.

In July CDC and World Health Organization officials stopped counting the number of cases of Swine Flu and are now relying on a patchwork reporting system which is reporting both "lab confirmed" cases of H1N1 and fatalities from cases which are associated with symptoms of Swine Flu. The science is terrible but the publicity is geared towards increasing fear, selling vaccines and Tamiflu and keeping us all on edge.

They are reporting deaths from "secondary" bacterial infections and some unofficial sources are even urging people who might be sick with Swine Flu to immediately see their doctors to get vaccines which might prevent bacterial pneumonia. This, by the way, is a serious misinterpretation of certain vaccines' purpose and an even more serious misunderstanding of how long it takes a vaccine to work.

Vaccines, including the flu shots, should not be given to sick children or adults.

In the past 18 months, budget cutbacks have led to the loss of over 15,000 public health department jobs. It might be overly cynical to assume that a full court press about H1N1 could lead to some of these jobs being restored or, at least, might stem the budget cutbacks and preserve further job loss.

Every winter I tell the families in my practice that winter viruses--including this new H1N1--are very unlikely to cause serious illness in healthy people but you may choose to do your very best to avoid them before a vacation, an important school event or just because you want this to be a quieter winter for your family.

I don't think that this year's pair of flu vaccines will create disasters but I also don't think that they're a good use of our health care dollars. They are definitely not worth the amount of media and medical attention they've received and continue to receive.

Swine Flu vaccines are now available and they may be just as safe as the CDC and others say they are but they are not the most important measure for keeping your children free of viral illness.

Try to get a good night's sleep!! Somehow.

Wash your hands. Teach your children to wash their hands. A good long hand washing, about as long as it takes to sing "Happy Birthday" twice or the ABC's once through is about what it takes. Hand sanitizer is acceptable in moderation when there is no soap and water.

Work with your children's schools to have children wash their hands, especially before they eat snacks or lunch. Hand washing is no small benefit in flu and cold prevention but involves a good deal of parental requesting to truly implement at most busy schools.

When you and your children come home, wash hands again.

Avoid refined sugars, dairy and fried foods which make you and your children less healthy, replace antioxidant-rich fruits and vegetables and may lower your immunity. Work with your children's schools to stop serving cupcakes at each and every birthday. If one kid's mom or dad brings in sweets for celebrating, then everyone's mom and dad does. Make it a "no one" does policy, so no one feels singled out and everyone stays healthy. Ask your child's school to not serve sweet sugary snacks at all. Get your Parent/Teacher groups on board. Pack healthy and well-balanced meals for your kids.

Support your child's immunity with herbs and supplements (look for brands that are not loaded with additives and sugars) For the most part, they're not proven effective but most have centuries of safe use behind them and seem to help promote good health and stronger immunity.

Astragalus: one dose three times a week will help support immunity during flu season (This herb seems to be valuable only before an illness and not during.).
Echinacea and Goldenseal: one dose every day in a liquid or chewable form. My favorite is echinacea tea.
Vitamin C and Bioflavonoids: I recommend for children (and take) 500 mg of vitamin C per year of age divided into 3-4 doses each day during cold and flu time. (A five year old would get 2500 mg and a 10 year old 5000 mg. The maximum dose is 10,000 mg--Less if C gives you diarrhea.)
Elderberry is a patented and proven viral treatment
Probiotics: 5 to 10 billion CFUs each day to build immunity
Fever is one of the immune system's best tools for fighting viruses and bacteria and should be left alone whenever possible. Higher fever might need to be decreased for a child's comfort and, mainly, for assessment.

104 degree children all look like they might have a terrible illness. Using a long bath, natural remedies and even Tylenol or Ibuprofen will give you a "window" to look at a child with a much lower temperature. A cooler child will usually smile more, drink more and look more like herself.

You can then see that there might be a pretty big fever but the illness underlying the fever is a small illness. Worry and stress levels can drop.

If your child has an illness which is preventing good hydration or if lowering a child's fever still doesn't allow you to adequately evaluate the illness, call your doctor.

Again, this winter is not different than previous winters. Swine Flu does not pose a realistic risk to your family.


Jay Gordon, MD, FAAP


http://www.drjaygordon.com/development/news/swinefluhighanxiety.asp

 

[eagleseven]

A great article last month

You keep citing old articles...why?

You should cite up-to-date articles, like this one:

Hospitalization for H1N1 flu now highest among young, Flu and Cold

According to a CDC update, issued two days ago, hospitalizations for H1N1 flu are now highest among 0 to 4 year olds. Overall influenza rates are higher than normal for the time of year. Hospitalization for H1N1 flu is highest among younger patients for the week of November 1 to November 7.

Death rates related to H1N1 flu continue to increase, but visits to physician offices have declined. Since April, H1N1 has been confirmed as the cause of 156 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths.

Death rates from pneumonia also increased according to the weekly update from the CDC. Among 35 pediatric flu deaths, 26 were confirmed from H1N1 flu.

The CDC also reports increased H1N1 flu activity in 46 states – a decline from 48 states in the preceding week. According to the CDC, "This many reports of widespread activity at this time of year are unprecedented during seasonal flu."

 

[Sinatra]

And another report a couple weeks ago from NBC local affiliate in Dallas stating how swine flu is actually mild when compared to previous "regular" flu viruses...

___


Despite Worries, Swine Flu Fairly Mild: Health Officials


Dallas health officials say the swine flu appears to be a much milder strain than some seasonal flu strains seen in previous years.

Less than 10 percent of people with the H1N1 virus need medical attention, according to the Centers for Disease Control. And 99.9 percent of those who contract it make a full recovery.

But that isn't what is often conveyed in news stories, said Dr. John Carlo, of the Dallas County Health Department.

Carlo said the reporting of swine-flu-related deaths doesn't accurately portray the virus' overall story.

The challenge is, we have to keep perspective," he said. "We can't really cause panic, yet at the same time, we have to cause awareness and let everyone know the situation."

Those who contract swine flu often have mild symptoms.

"I just had just common cold symptoms -- I had a sore throat -- and it wouldn't go away," said Doroota Baird, who tested positive for the virus.

She was back to normal after only a few days of rest and isolation.

"I was shocked, because I didn't feel that bad," Baird said.

While the vast majority of cases are mild, a few cases have been fatal. According to the CDC, 70 percent of swine-flu-related deaths had underlying medical conditions that contributed to their death.




Despite Worries, Swine Flu Fairly Mild: Health Officials | NBC Dallas-Fort Worth

 

[Sinatra]

Which of course brings us to the origins of the thread, with the CDC's own statistics showing declines in flu-related hospitilazations, deaths, and overall flu cases...


Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths National Summary

U.S. WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories National Summary, 2009-10

 

[eagleseven]

Indeed!

This may be due to:
1. A fluke.

2. Our mitigation and vaccination efforts are working, despite people like you.

3. H1N1 is fizzling out.

4. A combination of #2 and #3.

In order to stroke your ego, you immediately jumped to conclusion #3. You may be right, you may be wrong, but it is simply too early to tell.

Sorry to interrupt your circle-jerk.

 

[Sinatra]

A great article last month from Pediatrician Dr. Jay Gordon regarding the false hysteria surrounding the swine flu and the media-driven hype regarding its impacts on the pediatric population...

___

Swine Flu, Other Viruses and High Anxiety -- October 12, 2009


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We're a month into the school year and it's the time of year when it seems our kids are spending more days sick than well.

Please don't be fooled into thinking that this winter is so different from previous winters.

Swine Flu does not pose a realistic risk to your family: There will be millions of cases reported and rare fatalities highly publicized.

Some of us will get high fevers and have to miss school and work for a few days and 99.9999% of us will remain completely unaffected after the flu season except that those who contract Swine Flu this year will be protected if it gets meaner and more virulent in coming years as expected.

Every winter there are dozens and dozens of different viruses. The immune system is built by catching and beating these bugs and acquiring antibodies and "memory cells" for the next time the virus appears.

There is no way around this process and no shortcut. Children, in particular, must suffer through a lot of winter illnesses because their immune systems are so inexperienced.

Colds and coughs have an acute phase of 2, 3 or 4 days during which children are contagious and may need to stay home from school.

Following this contagious period, there can be extra mucus, congestion, cough and malaise for another week or so. By the end of this ten-day period, most children will have been exposed to, and maybe contracted, another 2 or 3 other viruses! It's really no surprise that your children and many others might seem to be sick for weeks on end.

Some children and adults have allergies which compound the congestion and coughing problem.

A new study showed that when you examine the blood of children who've been sick for a couple weeks or more the majority of these kids show antibodies to 2 or 3 different viruses: In other words, children and adults don't have ten-day viral illnesses, they have a series of 2 and 3 day bugs which might look daunting but are actually just a part of a normal winter viral season.

Why do we get more illnesses in winter? There are more social and school gatherings in confined spaces, the air is drier, more people travel during winter holidays and we eat more junk food during these months.

New viruses get more people sick than older ones and this year the Swine Flu H1N1 virus is the newest common infection.

The media are taking advantage of this situation and are creating more anxiety about winter illness than at any time in recent memory.


Except, maybe, for the SARS scare.

Or the Bird Flu scare.

Or the West Nile Virus scare.

The CDC released fatality data this past week and were quite clear in their assessment of this relatively non-virulent strain of influenza:

75-80% of the 76 children had significant or severe underlying medical problems.

Any child's death creates an extremely difficult public discussion but of the 300,000,000 Americans there are 45,000,000 children and teens and there have been 76 deaths of younger people. About 15 of these deaths occurred in seemingly healthy children and teens.

Please put all of these numbers in the proper perspective and realize that there are many important lifesaving topics for the media to publicize but none which sell papers and create TV viewership quite as well as this new flu.

In July CDC and World Health Organization officials stopped counting the number of cases of Swine Flu and are now relying on a patchwork reporting system which is reporting both "lab confirmed" cases of H1N1 and fatalities from cases which are associated with symptoms of Swine Flu. The science is terrible but the publicity is geared towards increasing fear, selling vaccines and Tamiflu and keeping us all on edge.

They are reporting deaths from "secondary" bacterial infections and some unofficial sources are even urging people who might be sick with Swine Flu to immediately see their doctors to get vaccines which might prevent bacterial pneumonia. This, by the way, is a serious misinterpretation of certain vaccines' purpose and an even more serious misunderstanding of how long it takes a vaccine to work.

Vaccines, including the flu shots, should not be given to sick children or adults.

In the past 18 months, budget cutbacks have led to the loss of over 15,000 public health department jobs. It might be overly cynical to assume that a full court press about H1N1 could lead to some of these jobs being restored or, at least, might stem the budget cutbacks and preserve further job loss.

Every winter I tell the families in my practice that winter viruses--including this new H1N1--are very unlikely to cause serious illness in healthy people but you may choose to do your very best to avoid them before a vacation, an important school event or just because you want this to be a quieter winter for your family.

I don't think that this year's pair of flu vaccines will create disasters but I also don't think that they're a good use of our health care dollars. They are definitely not worth the amount of media and medical attention they've received and continue to receive.

Swine Flu vaccines are now available and they may be just as safe as the CDC and others say they are but they are not the most important measure for keeping your children free of viral illness.

Try to get a good night's sleep!! Somehow.

Wash your hands. Teach your children to wash their hands. A good long hand washing, about as long as it takes to sing "Happy Birthday" twice or the ABC's once through is about what it takes. Hand sanitizer is acceptable in moderation when there is no soap and water.

Work with your children's schools to have children wash their hands, especially before they eat snacks or lunch. Hand washing is no small benefit in flu and cold prevention but involves a good deal of parental requesting to truly implement at most busy schools.

When you and your children come home, wash hands again.

Avoid refined sugars, dairy and fried foods which make you and your children less healthy, replace antioxidant-rich fruits and vegetables and may lower your immunity. Work with your children's schools to stop serving cupcakes at each and every birthday. If one kid's mom or dad brings in sweets for celebrating, then everyone's mom and dad does. Make it a "no one" does policy, so no one feels singled out and everyone stays healthy. Ask your child's school to not serve sweet sugary snacks at all. Get your Parent/Teacher groups on board. Pack healthy and well-balanced meals for your kids.

Support your child's immunity with herbs and supplements (look for brands that are not loaded with additives and sugars) For the most part, they're not proven effective but most have centuries of safe use behind them and seem to help promote good health and stronger immunity.

Astragalus: one dose three times a week will help support immunity during flu season (This herb seems to be valuable only before an illness and not during.).
Echinacea and Goldenseal: one dose every day in a liquid or chewable form. My favorite is echinacea tea.
Vitamin C and Bioflavonoids: I recommend for children (and take) 500 mg of vitamin C per year of age divided into 3-4 doses each day during cold and flu time. (A five year old would get 2500 mg and a 10 year old 5000 mg. The maximum dose is 10,000 mg--Less if C gives you diarrhea.)
Elderberry is a patented and proven viral treatment
Probiotics: 5 to 10 billion CFUs each day to build immunity
Fever is one of the immune system's best tools for fighting viruses and bacteria and should be left alone whenever possible. Higher fever might need to be decreased for a child's comfort and, mainly, for assessment.

104 degree children all look like they might have a terrible illness. Using a long bath, natural remedies and even Tylenol or Ibuprofen will give you a "window" to look at a child with a much lower temperature. A cooler child will usually smile more, drink more and look more like herself.

You can then see that there might be a pretty big fever but the illness underlying the fever is a small illness. Worry and stress levels can drop.

If your child has an illness which is preventing good hydration or if lowering a child's fever still doesn't allow you to adequately evaluate the illness, call your doctor.

Again, this winter is not different than previous winters. Swine Flu does not pose a realistic risk to your family.


Jay Gordon, MD, FAAP


Dr. Jay Gordon - Swine Flu, Other Viruses and High Anxiety -- October 12, 2009

___

A great read...

 

[eagleseven]

This may be due to:
1. A fluke.

2. Our mitigation and vaccination efforts are working, despite people like you.

3. H1N1 is fizzling out.

4. A combination of #2 and #3.

In order to stroke your ego, you immediately jumped to conclusion #3. You may be right, you may be wrong, but it is simply too early to tell.

Sorry to interrupt your circle-jerk.

You keep citing old articles...why?

Who can quote the loudest, Sinatra?

 

[Sinatra]

This may be due to:


3. H1N1 is fizzling out.

____

Correct - #3

It is fizzling out, just like the regular flu - though in this case, more quickly and with less harm to the overall population...

 

[eagleseven]

____

Correct - #3

It is fizzling out, just like the regular flu - though in this case, more quickly and with less harm to the overall population...

You have no evidence to support this assertion...you are jumping to conclusions. The reduction in cases could easily result from the excellent mitigation and vaccination efforts of the CDC, and from the public's awareness.

Or do you have a PhD in epidemiology?

In order to stroke your ego, you immediately jumped to conclusion #3. You may be right, you may be wrong, but it is simply too early to tell.

Sorry to interrupt your circle-jerk.

All too easy...

 

[Sinatra]

____

Correct - #3

It is fizzling out, just like the regular flu - though in this case, more quickly and with less harm to the overall population...

____

You got 1 out of 3 - that is improvement for you!!

And hopefully you are aware the entire swine flu hysteria was, and is, based upon fear-based conclusions. My conclusions are based upon the most recent facts showing swine flu cases are dropping swiftly, and the overall resulting impact of the outbreak has been comparatively "normal" or even less so, than previous flu seasons.

The swine flu was a bust pard!!!!

But don't worry, maybe there will be Bird Flu Part II coming soon!!!

 

[eagleseven]

Whatever you say, Dr. Sinatra!

 

[Sinatra]

Whatever you say, Dr. Sinatra!

_____

Ah, that takes me back a few years....

 

[saveliberty]

A great article last month

You keep citing old articles...why?

You should cite up-to-date articles, like this one:

Hospitalization for H1N1 flu now highest among young, Flu and Cold

According to a CDC update, issued two days ago, hospitalizations for H1N1 flu are now highest among 0 to 4 year olds. Overall influenza rates are higher than normal for the time of year. Hospitalization for H1N1 flu is highest among younger patients for the week of November 1 to November 7.

Death rates related to H1N1 flu continue to increase, but visits to physician offices have declined. Since April, H1N1 has been confirmed as the cause of 156 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths.

Death rates from pneumonia also increased according to the weekly update from the CDC. Among 35 pediatric flu deaths, 26 were confirmed from H1N1 flu.

The CDC also reports increased H1N1 flu activity in 46 states – a decline from 48 states in the preceding week. According to the CDC, "This many reports of widespread activity at this time of year are unprecedented during seasonal flu."

What is missing from your article eagleseven?

1. Doesn't say overall deaths from H1N1 is higher than normal.
2. Doesn't say children are recovering slower than normal flu.
3. Says increased flu activity is dropping.
4. Visits to the doctor for flu is down.
5. Hospitalizations for children are up, but it doesn't say in numbers greater than what the elderly normally are hospitalized for flu.
6. It really doesn't disprove any assertion of Sinatra. I assume that is the best you have.

 

[AllieBaba]

Everything I've read says it's on the rise, anyway:

H1N1 Child Deaths Rise - CBS News Video

Calif. H1N1 Flu Deaths Rise To 219 - Health News Story - KCRA Sacramento

California Department of Public Health Director Dr. Mark Horton said Thursday in Sacramento that the number of deaths is expected to rise.

Horton said a sample of doctors from across the state are reporting that about 5 percent of their patients are presenting with symptoms of flu. About 2 percent is normal for this time of year.

Horton said about 95 percent of those presenting with flu symptoms this season have H1N1 flu.

H1N1 flu cases rise, vaccine difficult to find | WHYY News and Information | WHYY

Since early September, the number of Pennsylvanians diagnosed with influenza has gone from a few hundred to just under 4,000. That rate has skyrocketed in the past two weeks, especially.

Acting Physician General Dr. Stephen Ostroff says officials expected the number to go up in the fall, but hes especially surprised at how quickly its risen. Ostroff says the majority of the cases are school-aged children and teenagers.

Ostroff: This continues to be very much a wave of influenza that affects the very young. About 70% to 75% of all of the cases we've been seeing are in individuals between the ages of 5 and 24 years of age.

Deseret News | H1N1 is on rise across the state
As public health officials push to keep Utahns updated about the availability of the H1N1 vaccine, three people have died and 127 have been hospitalized in the Beehive State since Sept. 1 after contracting the virus.

The Utah Department of Health released statewide data Wednesday showing a "substantial increase in the spread of the pandemic H1N1 virus throughout the state."