Survey-Is anybody buying this market?

[BuckToothMoron]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

 

[SYTFE]

Why?

 

[Pogo]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Why?

Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.

 

[SYTFE]

Why?

Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.

There is SOME growth. Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies. That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term. But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued. But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only seem expensive. Alphabet, Facebook, etc.

You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

I am largely in cash, Gold (stocks,ETF's, and physical) and some long term speculative leap put options. Semiconductors are a favorite target now. Did ok on the latest IBM puts as they report yet another quarter of declining revenues. Semiconductors stocks look very vulnerable here.

 

[DarkFury]

What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Why?

Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.

There is SOME growth. Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies. That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term. But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued. But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only seem expensive. Alphabet, Facebook, etc.

You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.

Problem now in this market breadth is very narrow, volumes are not high on the up days, and we are starting to see sell offs at the end of trading.

What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.

I think your going to see the leaders follow the rest and grow weaker.

 

[DarkFury]

Why?

Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.

There is SOME growth. Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies. That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term. But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued. But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only seem expensive. Alphabet, Facebook, etc.

You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.

Problem now in this market breadth is very narrow, volumes are not high on the up days, and we are starting to see sell offs at the end of trading.

What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.

I think your going to see the leaders follow the rest and grow weaker.

With the new trade deal with China they need two million six hundred thousand tons of coal a month!
If the wall goes plus the pipelines steel will skyrocket.
Add the new military needs and steel and aluminum both go up.

 

[yiostheoy]

Current stock market euphoria is based on the presumption that DJ Trump will be able to pass tax reform with a reduction to a 15% corp tax rate on the backs of the tax cheaters like Apple, Google, Walmart, Microsoft, etc.

If he gets Congress to pass the new law then the stock market euphoria is justified.

If not it will be another bubble that will burst sometime in 2017 -- probably October.

The stock markets always crash in October.

 

[MarathonMike]

A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.

So far, a long trip is winning.

We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com

 

[Luddly Neddite]

A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.

Oh wow.

I'll go write that down.

[emoji849]


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com

 

[Lewdog]

The only people that will make serious scratch right now are day traders. Long term investors will have to invest in safe low yield stocks... and to be honest they would be better off investing that money in things like Gold, silver, or certain collectibles like very rare graded sports cards and graded first run/first appearance comic books.

Take for example this comic book which is the very first appearance of Harley Quinn... who is extremely hot and will only get hotter when the movie Gotham City Sirens comes out.

Here is an Ichiro Upper Deck autograph/jersey rookie card graded a Gem Mint 10. He recently became a 3,000 hit MLB player and if you add his hits from Japan with the ones in MLB he has more professional hits than Pete Rose. He is a lock MLB Hall of Famer and his cards go up a lot because of his popularity in the U.S. and in Japan.

2001 SPx Upper Deck Ichiro Suzuki RC Rookie Jersey Auto PSA 10 | eBay

 

[Geaux4it]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I'm up 5% since Jan and that was being conservative

-Geaux

 

[BuckToothMoron]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.

So far, a long trip is winning.

We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com

Do yourself a favor. When it comes to investing, leave your politics out. Presidents rarely have Anything to do with the ultimate performance of the stock market. The last 8 years have surged mostly because of Fed policies of QE and low interest rates. With very little real growth, investors settled into stocks because of the TINA effect.

 

[MarathonMike]

A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.

Oh wow.

I'll go write that down.

Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com[/QUOTE

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.

So far, a long trip is winning.

We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com

I'll bet you will get much better ROI on buying solid dividend stocks than on a long trip which has an ROI of zero.

 

[william the wie]

Since I write covered options on undervalued issues why should I care? This is not as good as when DRIPs were offering 5% off market on shares purchased with money sent to the treasury or reinvested dividend income but 35% annualized returns make me happy

 

[Mac1958]

There was an investor study done by DALBAR a couple of years back that showed the average "active" investor had "earned" a 3.49% return over the last 20 years.

Invest smart (according to your time frame, risk tolerance and long term goals), don't try to time the market, don't get emotional, dollar cost average.

Next.
.

 

[Marion Morrison]

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.

I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.

I know what a good one would be, but I'm not telling Pogo.