Surprising Rasmussen poll, 2016: Hillary vs. GOP field

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Statistikhengst, Jun 24, 2014.

  1. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Paul, Carson Are Now Hillary?s Closest GOP Challengers - Rasmussen Reports?

    Release date: June 23, 2014
    1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0



    Hillary Clinton (D): 46
    Rand Paul (R): 39
    margin: Clinton +7

    Hillary Clinton (D): 46
    Ben Carson (R): 38
    margin: Clinton +8

    Hillary Clinton (D): 47
    Marco Rubio (R): 36
    margin: Clinton +11

    Hillary Clinton (D): 50
    Ted Cruz (R): 37
    margin: Clinton +13

    Hillary Clinton (D): 47
    Chris Christie(R): 33
    margin: Clinton +14

    Hillary Clinton (D): 50
    Rick Perry (R): 36
    margin: Clinton +14


    From an earlier Rasmussen poll (03/06/2014):

    Hillary Clinton (D): 47
    Jeb Bush (R): 33
    margin: Clinton +14



    What to take away from this?​



    Well, it's just one poll, and that is indeed true. So, I won't try to read the future from it, but Rasmussen is anything but a Democratic-friendly outfit.

    It is also the very first Rasmussen poll to pit Clinton against a large field of candidates all at once. So, in many ways, this is like the starting-shot for 2016 for Rasmussen. We can start to build a baseline for Rasmussen based on these results as the next two years unfold.



    Facts:​


    Of the six results from this poll, Hillary wins every match-up, from between +7 and +14 over her prospective GOP challengers. Average: Clinton +11.17%. In two of those match-ups, she wins with an upper-single-digit margin. In the other four match-ups, she wins with landslide double-digit margins and hits the 50-mark twice. This is the first Rasmussen poll ever since the founding of the company in 2003 where I have seen values like this for a Democratic candidate.

    All of the margins are outside the MoE. In fact they are outside the MoE doubled as well.

    In 2008, 2010 and in 2012, Rasmussen had a provable mathematical bias of +4 to the RIGHT, not to the left, so it is entirely possible that these margins are actually underplaying how strong Clinton actually is when compared to these names. This means that for the vast majority of their end polling, their predictions were at least 4 points off. Now, whether Rasmussen is still using the same methodology as before is anyone's guess, since Rasmussen is one of the only pollsters who refuses to release internals.

    Also interesting is that, for the first time I am aware, Ben Carson was polled against Hillary Clinton and he had the second strongest showing, behind Rand Paul.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Just for the sake of historical accuracy, here is my analysis of the pollsters, post-2012:

    Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

    You can see my analysis of Rasmussen there.

    Of the 21 end-polls from Rasmussen, RAS was to the Right from between +2 and +10 in 15 of those end polls. It was to the Left by +1 to +6 in 5 of those polls, and absolutely nailed Pennsylvania with 0 mathematical bias. So, Rasmussen was off to the Right in 3/4 of it's end polling and the intensity of being off was much higher than for the 5 polls where it was off to the Left.

    Rasmussen also miscalled 6 of the 12 battleground states. Mathematically, for all states combined, it's mathematical bias was +2.71 to the Right, but for the 12 battlegrounds, it was +4.50 to the Right. In national polling, Rasmussens final poll showed Romney 49 / Obama 48 and since Obama won by +4, this means that Rasmussen was off +5 to the Right in the national polling. No one can, with any credibility, accuse Rasmussen of having a Liberal bias in it's polling.

    The point I am making here is that a +14 for Clinton over Perry, for instance, could actually be a +18 in reality.


    Again, this is just one poll, but it really sticks out since it is from a very Right-Wing leaning pollster.


    More updates on Rasmussen in the future...
     
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    Last edited: Jun 24, 2014
  2. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=47936]AntiParty[/MENTION] [MENTION=34688]Grandma[/MENTION] [MENTION=48060]guno[/MENTION] [MENTION=20112]bodecea[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=48010]Machaut[/MENTION] [MENTION=48981]DiabloBlanco[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION]


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    Thanks,

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    PS. Please do not quote this posting, otherwise you will send out the @ list again. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2014
  3. BobPlumb
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    I'm not sure if this really means anything at this point.

    Polls had Hillary clobbering Obama in the primary race in 2008, all the way up until they took the votes.

    Hillary has got one major liability. She kind of grates on people. That's at least partially because of a little sexism we have in this society, but her voice is kind of shrill and she doesn't come off as matronly. (Something that successful female politicians need to do.)

    Could she still beat the GOP Clown Car? Probably. The GOP has done little to fix the demographics that made them lose in 2012 and in some ways have made them worse. and gains in the Special Olympics Midterms are going to bolster their confidence that anti-immigration, anti-worker, anti-poor rhetoric serves them well.
     
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  5. Vermonter
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    Vermonter Old Vermonter

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    This means absolutely nothing. After November, when the candidates start declaring, the polls may have some meaning, but everybody who is the least bit interested is gonna wait to see whether or not there's gonna be a political bloodbath in November.
     
  6. rightwinger
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    But, but...

    Hillary is old and has cankles....how can she possibly be preferred to the best available Republican?

    Can I show you some photoshop?
     
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  7. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Non-sequitor, absolute non-sequitor.

    History have proven that the results of mid-term elections, both first and second term, have absolutely no bearing on the results of the following Presidential election. Not even in the slightest.

    Here, inform yourself:

    http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...pared-to-presidential-terms-1855-present.html


    Furthermore, Nate Silver and a number of other statistician have mathematically proven that early polling is far more predictive than people want to admit.
     
  8. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Yup, the GOP got clobbered in the 1986 midterms but HW Bush still won in 1988.
     
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  9. CrusaderFrank
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    It will be even more surprising when Hillary is not the nominee
     
  10. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    What exactly makes you so confident of that?
     

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