Support for Congressional Health Care Reform Falls to New Low

[Ringel05]

Nodog,
Here is the latest Harris Interactive poll synopsys.

The Harris Poll® FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
©2009 Harris Interactive, Inc. All rights reserved.
The More People Think They Know about Obama’s Health Care Reform Proposals The More They Oppose Them
ROCHESTER, N.Y. – August 10, 2009 – In late January only 17% of the public claimed to know much about President Obama’s health care reform proposals. By late July, just before the president’s press conference on July 22nd, that number had more than doubled, to 36%, while fully 72% felt they knew “a lot” or “some.” The full importance of this question is that how much people feel they know about the president’s proposals are strongly correlated with opposition to them. These are some of the results from The Harris Poll, a new study of 2,029 U.S. adults surveyed online between July 20 and 22, 2009 by Harris Interactive. This survey also repeated another question that we asked in January to measure support and opposition to the president’s health reform proposals. In January, a 50% to 20% plurality supported them (while in most cases admitting that they did not know a lot about them). In our late July survey the public was almost equally divided, with only a slender 42% to 38% plurality supporting the president’s proposals More bad news for the president comes from the results to another question on what people believe would be the impact of his plans if they were implemented. All of the changes since January show increasing numbers of people who are not convinced about the benefits of the plans. Those who think that the plans would be “good” for each of the following have fallen:
 For the quality of medical care, from 47% to 35%;
 For “people like you” from 45% to 34%;
 For containing costs, from 49% to 39%;
 For providing more people with adequate insurance, from 61% to 52%;
 For strengthening the economy, from 42% to 30%;
 For making care more cost effective, from 54% to 42%.
The numbers who think that the president’s proposal would be “bad” for each of these six items have jumped, and in some cases, doubled. For example:
 34% of adults now think that Obama’s proposed reform would be bad for “people like you,” compared to only 18% in January; and
 35% believe that they would be bad for “strengthening the economy,” compared to only 19% in January.
However, the really bad news for President Obama and the Democrats is that opposition to his proposals increases from 22% of those who feel they know only a little about them to a 54% majority of those who feel they know a lot. Only 42% of these “well informed” people support the plan.

 

[Big Black Dog]

If nobody ever spoke up about an unpopular government movement, we would still be flying the English flag here in America.

 

[nodoginnafight]

So what makes them an "outlier" (liberal buzzword for a "poll who's outcome I don't like") as far as their data collection methods are concerned?

Actually, it's not a liberal buzzword, it is a statistical term in common use among pollsters. An "outlier" is a poll that produces results that are significantly inconsistent (statistically).

 

[Dr.House]

If nobody ever spoke up about an unpopular government movement, we would still be flying the English flag here in America.

How quickly they have forgotten the Shrillary Clintoon speech about disagreeing with an administration...lol

 

[nodoginnafight]

Ringel05 - thanks for the update.

 

[Meister]

So what makes them an "outlier" (liberal buzzword for a "poll who's outcome I don't like") as far as their data collection methods are concerned?

Actually, it's not a liberal buzzword, it is a statistical term in common use among pollsters. An "outlier" is a poll that produces results that are significantly inconsistent (statistically).

Once again I ask you for proof on your claim with Rasmussen. If you can't state one, then it's just your opinion, and nothing else.

 

[Dr.House]

So what makes them an "outlier" (liberal buzzword for a "poll who's outcome I don't like") as far as their data collection methods are concerned?

Actually, it's not a liberal buzzword, it is a statistical term in common use among pollsters. An "outlier" is a poll that produces results that are significantly inconsistent (statistically).

Except libs use "outlier" when the poll disagrees with their predetermined opinion...

Rass has been shown to be accurate in predictive analysis... They also don't oversample the looney left as much as many of the others... Perhaps therin lies their "outlier-ness"...

What makes you say they are unreliable? Can not "outliers" be correct?

 

[nodoginnafight]

Once again I ask you for proof on your claim with Rasmussen. If you can't state one, then it's just your opinion, and nothing else.

If you are interested in doing research on polls and outliers, you might want to check out this website. It's great for numbers geeks.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right

and you know, you can claim that anyone who disagrees with you MUST be a liberal, but that just don't make it so.

 

[Dr.House]

538 is a partisan leftist site...

 

[Meister]

Once again I ask you for proof on your claim with Rasmussen. If you can't state one, then it's just your opinion, and nothing else.

If you are interested in doing research on polls and outliers, you might want to check out this website. It's great for numbers geeks.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right

and you know, you can claim that anyone who disagrees with you MUST be a liberal, but that just don't make it so.

Your being disingenuous again...where have I called you a liberal?....if you can't show where I have, I will expect an apology from you.
I laugh at your 535 site.....

 

[nodoginnafight]

I laugh at your 535 site.....

It's 538 ....
I'll be awaiting your apology

 

[nodoginnafight]

538 is a partisan leftist site...

yeah, OK.

 

[Dr.House]

538 is a partisan leftist site...

yeah, OK.

Finally we can agree on something...

 

[Meister]

I laugh at your 535 site.....

It's 538 ....
I'll be awaiting your apology

I apologize about the 535, and your 538 site. Now....Where's my apology????

 

[nodoginnafight]

I apologize - you did not call me a liberal. It was another poster and I incorrectly attributed that to you.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Tue Aug 4, 2:23 pm ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – A majority of Americans are in favor of having a public, or government-run, option in the US health care system as proposed by President Barack Obama, a poll showed Tuesday.

Fifty-two percent of 2,276 US adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive between July 9 and 13 said they were in favor of a government-run health plan, while just 30 percent were against.

The Harris poll is month old. Six weeks ago, Rasmussen had support for a public plan at 50% and opposition to it at 44% among likely voters. The point is that support for the public plan has been dropping steadily and opposition has been rising. Pelosi says it is all the work of outside agitators with swastikas who have been unAmerican enough to organize their opposition to the plan and to angrily demand answers to their questions instead of allowing Congressional Dems to rattle off the talking points Pelosi sent them home with, and Obama claims it is because they are using scare tactics, and then he tries a scare tactic of his own by stating the scariest thing is to do nothing at all.

What Obama and Pelosi need to worry about is why voters seem to be trusting what these angry protesters have to say about the bill more than what Obama and Pelosi or the other Congressional Dems have to say about it. Could it be that the ham fisted way the Dems have tried to ram this legislation through Congress before anyone, including many in Congress, has had a chance to consider it has led voters to distrust them? Could it be that voters are sick of all this Obama hype and all his predictions of catastrophe if they don't do what he tells them to? Could it be that voters are smart enough to realize that no one in the WH or in Congress appears to understand the issues well enough or the legislation, itself, well enough to be in a position to make a sound decision about it at this time or even to answer their questions honestly and intelligently?

 

[toomuchtime_]

Can you tell us why Rassmussen is NOT reliable? I hear libs like yourself discount it while praising others, so I'd like to know why..

I don't COMPLETELY discount rassmussen but statistically they are routinely what is called an outlier. They consistently show a bias of several points to the right. Gallup is typically the same thing on the left. I like using the poll averages as these outliers get averaged out and you typically wind up with a much clearer picture.

Gallup polls all adults and Rasmussen polls only likely voters, that's what the A and LV under sample in the RCP table means, and that explains the differences in their findings, not left right biases. Polls of likely voters generally show lower approval ratings and higher disapproval ratings than polls of all adults.

If you compare polls taken at the same time, almost always polls of likely voters will show the lowest approval rates and the highest disapproval rates, polls of registered voters will show higher approval rates and lower disapproval rates and polls of all adults will show the highest approval rates and the lowest disapproval rates.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Gallup polls all adults and Rasmussen polls only likely voters, that's what the A and LV under sample in the RCP table means, and that explains the differences in their findings, not left right biases. Polls of likely voters generally show lower approval ratings and higher disapproval ratings than polls of all adults.

The aberations go beyond approval - Rasmussen is traditionally an outlier even among LV polls and gallup is traditionally an outlier even among other A polls. The statistical variations go beyond that distinction. Full disclosure alert - the is according to research conducted by Nate Silver (or Sliver???) who runs 538 - he's a true numbers geek (what's not to love) and some have questioned HIS bias as well.

But the fact that he has pointed out aberations that lean to the left as well as those that lean to the right give him a lot of credibility in my humble estimation.