Stratfor: Turkey as a Regional Power

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Oct 23, 2007.

  1. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    First: I am in full knowledge, that i might hijack the forum with all related to Turkey.
    Second: It all gets to a piss-contest.
    Third: Time for Words is over, and i will return to the board once we moved into Iraq.

    Maybe my stance has produced "negative" feelings. But this should not lead you to intentional misreading/miscalculation of everything my country related in this Region and the will and potential of my country to change faith of this region.
    After you read the Stratfor article, i will write something in strategic context and will try to summarize up what strategic goals are and which direction Turkey will go.
    And therefore effect the region fundamentally against or to the will of neighbour states or Superpower does not matter, it WILL happen. We have every instrument to do.

    After that i will maybe return to the board once this process has practically started (we are already in that process) with first step, North-Iraq.


    http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=297234
     
  2. William Joyce
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    William Joyce Chemotherapy for PC

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    The Turks should return the Hagia Sophia to the Christians. I'll give them 10 days... then lob a big fat nuke at Ankara.
     
  3. trobinett
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    trobinett Senior Member

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    Ya know, if canavar is any example, I'm with ya on this William.:eusa_clap:
     
  4. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    So, where to begin?
    Let me begin with USA.
    A status of an US dog like Israel, Egypt, Saudi-Arabia is not our destiny and we will not be.

    If attacking Iraq was against our interests, not even the Superpower can force us to it. Same thing applies to potential Iran war.
    The ultimate maxim is Turkish interest.
    That is the friction going on between Turkey and USA. USA wants Turkey as its dog, Turkey acting for USA interests.
    This arrogance of USA is documentated by Wolfowitz style in the aftermath of parliament decision in March 2003 demanding apologies from Turkish nation in live interview in CNN-Turk.

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/may2003/turk-m24.shtml

    So what this all about was is not the subject here, but there were serious negotiations between USA and Turkey. And it seems USA did not gave what Turkey wanted for Turkey being part of US War Machinery to change the region.
    Turkey thought, and is ultimatively proven right when we look to US quagmire, that USA can not do without Turkey.
    USA thought it can anyway and relied on the Kurdish card. By doing so multiplying the friction between Turkey and USA.

    By playing the Kurdish card and signalizing to Turkey that things will chage against our interests in the region, Turkey arranged immediately with Iran and Syria which also are directly effected by this Kurdish Card.
    Ideology, frictions and de-facto war status between Iran, Syria and Turkey changed overnight.
    With this also came Turkish economic expansion into these former foe countries.
    And there is still huge potential.

    USA is in shit in Iraq. But the bigger shit is waiting in Iran. Therefore it needs the Kurds. Bombing from above is no solution as Mullahs will stay with same ideology.
    Without regime change, USA can bomb Iran in 2 year frequency it will only force them to build their facilities even deeper into ground.
    What counts is the availibility of knowledge and the intention to utilize this knowledge. You can not bomb away this knowledge and also not that INTENTION as long as Mullahs stay.

    The easiest way for USA is Turkey joining US War Machinery against Iran.
    We would finish them off very quickly. But we won't, especially not after happenings since 2003, your arrogance to Turkish deaths and your motives to lie about Turkish history in your senate regarding Armenians.
    So your only option is indeed the Kurds. You have self-restricted yourself on the weakest option available to people, who despite your US financed propaganda about "Happy Kurdistan" are people from the mountains without any infrastructure, power protection and so on.
    Also they are going to be owned big time by Turkey.

    That said, we can progress in discussion from 3 possibilities:
    a) USA will attack Iran big time, forceing Regime change
    b) USA will strike Iran by air
    c) USA arranges with reality of nuclear Iran

    Turkey will watch and keep its ressources in human, material and money terms in pocket. Invasion of North-Iraq is no big issue.
    What happens in Iran is not directly in our interest zone. Where we have interest in Iran is the North-Western part which has acces to Caspian Sea.
    This area will anyway fall into Turkish influence zone. There live about 15-25 Million Azeri Turks there, which have direct ethnic roots to Turkey and Azerbaijan and we all speak same language. Turkey will have de-facto boarder to Caspian Sea through South-Azerbaijan cementing a block of over 100 mio Turks with same ethnicity and same language from Istanbul-Bakü-Tebriz.
    Behind Caspian Sea is even a bigger Turkic world stretching to the boarders of China. Allthough these Turkic tribes speak different dialects then those Turks Oghuz tribe west of Caspian Sea, which are also described as "Western Turks".


    If the USA wants to free "Iran" and therefore also South-Azerbaijan with USA ressources and in the outcome expand Turkey's power without Turkey shot one bullet, so be it. It does not happen every day, that GI's die for Turkish interests.

    What USA has to live with is that Turkey will from day to day play bigger role as Big Boss in this area. Of course not also limited to Mid-East area, but pivotal to our area in all directions. The only serious barrier is lying in the North with Russia.
    In long-term Russia and Turkey might be opponents, but till there is many time not closeing door for possible strategic cooperation in the meanwhile. Especially when Turkey-USA relations get irreperably out of order.
    And these signs are emergingly visible. The most painful outcome of this would be
    a) Russia and Turkey (the only 2 geographical options in Energy ressource transfer to the west) playing coordinated Energy monopol.
    b) disarming of Black Sea under "Blackseafor"-Plattform and therefore multiplying Russian influence by stationing Russian fleet in Syria. As long as Turkish navy outnumbers Russian Black Sea fleet and Turkey does not disarm Black-Sea as biggest Navy power, Russia will never come down to warm waters.

    So the question is whether USA is a barrier to Turkish interest projection in the Mid-East or it is not. Currently it is big time. If it will be further once Turkey moves into Iraq, we will see. But pragmatism to new situation is likely from Washington.

    Turkey has huge duty. It is to modernize the Sunnite world with Turkish understanding of Islam. For this we have to bind these economies to ours.
    We have the industrial capability for this. 65% of industrial exports from North-Africa and Mid-East region come from Turkey.
    Through economic exchange (one-way direction, as Sunnites have almost nothing to export except Oil and oil derivate industry products), we get also a tool of influence. By exorting to them we also strengthen our finances.
    It is a win-win-win-win situation. Next steps will be things like importing brainpower to Turkish universities from Sunnite world rather them going to distant cultures.
    Turkey it is ideal, freedom combined with local culture. From state-supervised brothels to state-controlled mosques.
    You do not belive which charisma potential Turkey has to Muslim world. Off course the moderate part. To radicalists like Al-Qaeda, a country like Turkey, is their worse nightmare. So no matter what, Turkish fight against Al-Qaeda etc. will go on.
    This binds us to USA interests. But a country like Turkey can not limit itself as War Machinery against Islamic terrorism.

    From Iran every year come over 1 Mio tourists. Most of them young people and believe me even in the Turkish air-machines the veils fall of.
    Iran in 2006 for a while stopped tourism to Turkish coast cities like Antalya and Bodrum but revised the ban after Turkish pressure:
    http://hurarsiv.hurriyet.com.tr/goster/haber.aspx?id=4370721&tarih=2006-05-06

    In Iranian power politics, there are even used videos of Iranian parliamentarians who are caught on video enjoying turkish belly dancers for power politics to discredit the other side. In this case it was Iranian cultural minister Esfandiyar Rahim Maşaie. The video was burned on CD and spreaded in Iranian parliament. He was then fined from Ahmadinajad with money fee.
    Here the video and news:
    http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2007/01/03/son/sondun12.asp:

    But let me stay more on strategic things and more related to Turkey:
    The North-Iraqi Kurds will fall under Turkish power umbrella. It is the next step of North-Iraq already being totally dependent on Turkish economy. That boom in "Kurdistan" is related to Turkish economy and Turkish businessman.
    The USA is for now an obstacle for Turkey expanding its infuence into North-Iraq and therefore also to Sunnite regions in Iraq.
    This is temporarily.
    And Barzani with its acts and linguistic has made very clear that he will not play the Turkish dog. Talabani-Clan is pragmatist and they will. So Barzani either sticks to its role or killed.
    In the end, if Iran does not get attacked it is also that what USA wants.
    I am sure USA does not want a land-locked North-Iraq fall under Mullah power zone opening from there to the world. Not as if we would allow Iran anyway, they have nothing to search in North-Iraq.
    USA currently thinks it has something to search in North-Iraq. How long we all will see. If Iraq is being divided it will be not against our interest, but to our interests.
    Everything else is baseless thoughts of gray-haired congressmen in USA.
    Turkey is the reality on ground.

    Before i go to much Megalomaniac (near future) i exit with another
    Stratfor Analysis from July about Turkish Power pojection.
    It is exactly of what i am talking about and very good like the introduceing article from stratfor.
    Maybe, despite past user-conflicts, this gives you a picture about Turkish role in the region. GunnyL phrases alike (Camel Turkey) or roomy alike people, who according to theirself piss against the wind and say everything to Turkey related "bastard", i am so sick of.
    I think both articles and aditional provided personal views give you exact outlook of Turkish action and Turkish role and implications fro USA interests.
    Maybe once i return i can also come up with extending links/analyses of Turkish steps regarding Syria,Israel and other pivotal regions.
    If Turkey cooperates with USA or Turkey puts USA a foot so it falls over it, we will see based on developments of USA pragmatism once Turkey moves into North-Iraq.
    Finished.

    https://www.stratfor.org/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204
     
  5. trobinett
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    trobinett Senior Member

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    If ya look up posturing in the dictionary, you see posts like the above.

    canavar, if spewing the BS, and pasting the propaganda, that you've been posting for the last few months makes you feel better, well, good for ya.:eusa_silenced:

    Personally, your only deluding yourself..............:eusa_think:
     
  6. Gunny
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    Gunny Gold Member

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    Trying to talk sense into him is like trying to reason with my ex ... ain't going to happen.

    Canavar is a warmongering idiot. So much so, he has let common sense completely escape him. He comes on here bowing his chest up talking shit like a chihuahua yapping at a pit bull.

    If Turkey attacks a terrorist organization, who gives a shit? If Turkey attacks US forces, Turkey will relive WWI. Simple as that.
     
  7. doniston
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    doniston Member

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    More stupodoty rears it's ugly head. I am very glad you are not in a position to follow thru.-----yes, I said stupodoty
     

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