RandomVariable
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- Jan 7, 2014
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We do not have to attack Iran. What we should do is lay down a perimeter around Israel and Jordan and tell Iran to dump their nuclear program in the sea. As far as Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east of Iran ISIS is already recruiting there so there will be no Iranian Caliphate there. (Afghanistan is 80% Sunni.) To the west of Iran it is only a matter of time before ISIS runs that country. Look at this from Iran's point of view. They fought an 8 year war with Iraq that was not religious and they had new American hardware and training and they still filled the fields around their cities with bodies of the men from the front lines. Some of whom died in the oil filled pits which the Iranian soldiers charged into and then Iraqis lit on fire. There was gas used in that war also I think. ISIS takes Syria, which it will, and ISIS gets those chemical weapons and Iran knows better than anyone that people lie to inspectors. Russia was mentioned. They are hurting from the Ukraine conflict. Strategically they really can not lose that. The west knows what a huge win it would be for them. That could start to really spiral upwards. Russia is parading its nuclear missiles in the street these days. I figure it is a hail-marry bluff but then again not something to be ruled out. Real men use nukes, right? Iran is also in too many places at the same time. They have Hezbollah attacking Syria, their effort to keep Iraq under their thumb, and they are playing in Yemen. The Houthi, Shia, have taken at least partial control of the country. While this might provide a way to keep Sunni terrorist, ISIS inspired of course, from attacking Paris it also plays into the hand of Iran although Iran can probably not make much of it at the moment. Iran's workload is what gave Israel the nerve to airstrike the Iranian and Hezbollah generals in Gaza. Hezbollah has pledged to reply in-kind so there might be some rockets out of Lebanon later this week. Saudi Arabia, while 85% Sunni, is calm but Egypt, mostly Sunni, is probably more unstable than most would like to admit. Pockets of ISIS supporters are also forming in those countries.
So, no, we do not have to attack Iran. We should just remind them what they are up against and tell them to dump their nuclear program in the sea. Then, maybe, we will play nice with them. Other than that just sit back and enjoy the popcorn. Just hold the popper out the window and cover your eyes. After all, real men use nukes.
I do not actually think that the Iranians will do exactly as we say but we are in the position of power. We are by far not equal players. Iran has the dilemma that they need the bomb as soon as possible. Rushing it will set off too many warning bells in the West however. I see the wild card in all this, the factor which could makes things sooner rather than later is if Russia decides that it can get the Ukraine through meddling in the ME. The biggest play being handing Iran a bomb straight out.
