State Marijuana Measures 2014

[Nyvin]

Florida: Legalize medical marijuana

It's looking like Florida's Medical Marijuana measure has been killed by Sheldon Adelson, who gave $5 million in opposition...85% of the funding against the measure. The latest polling in October:

SurveyUSA 10/02/14 - 10/06/14 51% 33% 16% +/-4.1 594 University of North Florida 9/29/14 - 10/08/14 67% 28% 5% +/-4.7 471 UF Graham Center 10/07/14 - 10/12/14 48% 44% 7% +/-4.7 781 Saint Peters Poll 10/08/14 - 10/11/14 54% 40% 6% +/-1.8 3,128 Gravis Marketing 10/22/14 - 10/24/14 50% 42% 8% +/-3.0 861 Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 10/22/14 - 10/27/14 62% 35% 3% +/-3.4 834 AVERAGES 57.3% 33.9% 8.5% +/-3.59 1,005 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative Amendment 2 2014 - Ballotpedia

Even though most of the polls show over 50%...under Florida law a state constitutional amendment requires 60% approval by voters. Earlier in the year (before Sheldon bombed $5 million) it was looking like the measure would hit 60% (some polls showed above 80% support...), but in the last two months the polls have gotten a lot closer. There is still possibility it will pass, but the measure is certainly in grave danger as of right now. I'm going to say this will be a loser on Tuesday.

Alaska: Legalize Recreational Marijuana

This one appears totally up in the air as to who will win. Supporters have outspent opposition almost $8 to $1, and Alaska has "The" highest per capita use of Marijuana in the nation. State legislatures have been mostly against legalization ever since 1990, and continue to be to this day.

Public Policy Polling 5/8/2014 - 5/11/2014 48% 45% 7% +/-4.1 582 Public Policy Polling 7/31/2014 - 8/3/2014 44% 49% 8% +/-3.8 673 Ivan Moore 57.2% 38.7% 4.2% +/-4.0 568 Dittman Research 43% 53% 4% +/-4.0 600 AVERAGES 48.05% 46.43% 5.8% +/-3.98 605.75 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Alaska Marijuana Legalization Ballot Measure 2 2014 - Ballotpedia

All of the polls taken seem to have small sample sizes. No clear winner here, I'm willing to think the money advantage will pay off and supporters will come away with a win. The relatively high use of marijuana in the state might be helpful as well. I'm saying it's a win here come Tuesday.

Oregon: Legalize Recreational Marijuana

First thing to say about this is the supporters have outspent opposition "HUGELY" in the range of $45 to $1. There really isn't even much organized opposition to the measure in Oregon, no PAC or anything. All except 1 poll has shown it passing, and supporters seem optimistic about their chances. I found a SurveyUSA poll not included in ballotpedia showing it passing 52%. It's important to remember Oregon was the first state in the country to decriminalize marijuana possession.

Survey USA 06/05/2014 - 06/09/2014 51% 41% 8% +/-4.2 560 Survey USA 09/22/2014 - 09/24/2014 44% 40% 16% +/-4.2 568 DHM Research 10/08/2014 - 10/11/2014 52% 41% 7% +/-4.3 516 KGW/The Oregonian 10/26/2014 - 10/27/2014 44% 46% 7% +/-5 403 AVERAGES 47.75% 42% 9.5% +/-4.43 511.75 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Oregon Legalized Marijuana Initiative Measure 91 2014 - Ballotpedia

SurveyUSA poll: SurveyUSA Election Poll 21897
10/27/2014
Yes: 52%
No: 41%
Not Certain: 7%

With the huge cash advantage and it being Oregon, you'd think this is an easy win, but the polling is still close. What will matter the most is youth turnout on Tuesday. Younger generations overwhelming support legalization, and the more that show up to vote the better the chances are for this measure. It will be close, but I'm going to say win on this one.

Washington DC: Legalize recreational marijuana

If it were up to the ballot measure alone this would be an easy win, but congress does have the ability to shut down pretty much anything DC does locally. The ballot measure has support almost 2 to 1 in all polling and supporters as usual have a big cash advantage, but this will be more up to outside forces to see if it takes effect. I'll say win on this one with a small caveat.

To sum up on my predictions:

Florida: Lose
Alaska: Win
Oregon: Win
DC: Win ballot...but who knows what happens then.

 

[Katzndogz]

Pro pot has been shaky for awhile. It hasn't worked out well for either Washington or Colorado.

Outlook for states apos pot legalization measures goes from solid to shaky - LA Times

From the LA Times no less. CA has had legal medical marijuana for 16 years. That's why pro potheads can't get an initiative on the ballot to legalize recreational use. They got it on once and it failed. Now they can't get enough signatures to qualify.

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - see there, tol' ya so...

Pot-Positive Traffic Fatalities Up 100% in Colorado
November 26, 2014 - At first blush, it may appear that the fight to thwart marijuana legalization is a lost cause. Pot pushers want you to believe that legalization is inevitable. They point to legalization successes this November in Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia.

But Big Pot lost in Florida, and five cities in pot-crazy Colorado outlawed the sale of marijuana, including Lakewood, Canon City, Palisade, Palmer Lake and Ramah. And now comes the latest Gallup poll from Nov. 6, which shows that support for marijuana legalization is down seven points from last year, from 58 percent to 51 percent. Even liberal support for legalization dropped four points from last year. So why did the pot pushers lose a large state like Florida, and why is support for legalization falling?

That’s a tough question. But perhaps the public is starting to pay attention to scientific data and the actual dangers of marijuana, and the negative stories coming out of Colorado and Washington State since those states legalized marijuana. The science is clear and unambiguous – pot is a dangerous substance. It is not like alcohol at all. There is a reason it is classified as a Schedule I controlled dangerous substance, right along with heroin, LSD and ecstasy. The American Medical Association, the American Lung Association and other reputable doctors and scientists all reject legalization.

With the Colorado state capitol building visible in the background, partygoers dance and smoke pot on the first of two days at the annual 4/20 marijuana festival in Denver, Saturday April 19, 2014. The annual event is the first 420 marijuana celebration since retail marijuana stores began selling in January 2014.

As Dr. Kevin Sabet, former senior advisor to President Obama’s drug policy office, states in his book “Reefer Sanity ‘Seven Great Myths About Marijuana,” the average strength of today’s marijuana is five to six times what it was in the 1960s and 1970s, and upwards of 10 to 20 times stronger than in the past. Even the liberal editorial pages of The Washington Post urged voters not to legalize pot in the ballot initiative this past Nov. 4. The Post noted that “the rush to legalize marijuana gives us – and we hope voters – serious pause.”

The data coming out of Colorado is exhibit A on why voters should reject legalization efforts. Even the Democratic governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper, said that legalizing marijuana in Colorado was “reckless.” As I have written at Heritage, pot-positive traffic fatalities have gone up 100 percent since voters legalized pot in Colorado. This is true despite the fact that overall traffic fatalities in Colorado have gone down since 2007.

A report by a federal grant-funded agency in Colorado found seven specific negative side effects that pot legalization has caused in Colorado:

 

[waltky]

So, is it really worth it after all?...

Denver shelters cite legal pot in homeless upswing
December 24, 2014 — Chris Easterling was sick of relying on drug dealers in Minneapolis when he needed marijuana to help ease the pain of multiple sclerosis. They were flaky, often leaving the homeless man without the drug when he needed relief the most.

So he moved to Denver, where legal pot dispensaries are plentiful and accessible. Easterling is among a growing number of homeless people who have recently come to Colorado seeking its legal marijuana and who now remain in the state and occupy beds in shelters, service providers say. While no state agency records how many homeless people were drawn by legal weed, officials at homeless centers say the influx they are seeing is straining their ability to meet the needs of the increasing population. "The older ones are coming for medical (marijuana), the younger ones are coming just because it's legal," said Brett Van Sickle, director of Denver's Salvation Army Crossroads Shelter, which has more than doubled its staff to accommodate the increase.

The shelter did an informal survey of the roughly 500 new out-of-towners who stayed there between July and September and found as many as 30 percent had relocated for pot, he said. Shelters in some other parts of the state said they haven't noticed the problem or haven't surveyed their residents about it. Colorado's homeless population and its marijuana dispensaries are both concentrated in Denver, which could be why shelters say they are experiencing a more noticeable rise. Other factors could be driving the rising homeless rates. Colorado's economy is thriving, but the number of affordable homes and apartments is shrinking.

Homeless man Chris Easterling smokes legal hash oil from a vaporizer pen to ease the pain of his multiple sclerosis, in front of the Salvation Army shelter where he sleeps, in Denver. Easterling was sick of relying on illegal drug dealers in Minneapolis when he needed marijuana to help ease the pain of MS.

Julie Smith of Denver's Road Home, a city plan that aims to end homelessness, said the city's rising overall population could be a reason for an increase in the number of homeless people. She said the agency has heard anecdotal reports about homeless people moving to the state for the marijuana, but officials don't have any numbers to support that assertion. The city is eager to see the results of a study by Metropolitan State University of Denver's Criminal Justice and Criminology Department of issues related to legal marijuana, including any correlation between legal marijuana and rates of homelessness.

Assistant professor Rebecca Trammell said the researchers did interviews with shelter employees and volunteers after hearing anecdotes about the problem but have no preliminary findings. Many of those staying in shelters come to Denver with big plans and find they can't make ends meet, said Tom Luehrs, executive director of capital city's Saint Francis Center. The shelter has seen an increase from 730 people a day in 2013 to 780 people this year, and as many as 300 new faces a month. Not all of them are pot-smokers, Luehrs said, but many have said they were drawn to the state because of legal marijuana.

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Legal weed brings tax boost, but it's modest
January 2, 2015 — To see the tax implications of legalizing marijuana in Colorado, there's no better place to start than an empty plot of land on a busy thoroughfare near downtown Denver.

It is the future home of a 60,000-square-foot public recreational center that's been in the works for years. Construction costs started going up, leaving city officials wondering whether they'd have to scale back the project. Instead, they hit on a solution — tap $3.2 million from pot taxes to keep the pool at 10 lanes, big enough to host swim meets. The Denver rec center underscores how marijuana taxation has played throughout Colorado and Washington. The drug is bringing in tax money, but in the mix of multibillion budgets, the drug is a small boost, not a tsunami of cash.

Much of the drug's tax production has been used to pay for all the new regulation the drug requires — from a new state agency in Colorado to oversee the industry, to additional fire and building inspectors for local governments to make sure the new pot-growing facilities don't pose a safety risk. And estimates for pot's tax potential varied widely. Some government economists predicted a huge boost to public coffers. Others predicted a volatile revenue stream that could spike wildly based on how consumers and the black market would respond.

Some even guessed that legal weed would cost more than it produced in taxes, through higher public safety costs and possible expensive lawsuits because the drug remains illegal under federal law. In Colorado, where retail recreational sales began Jan. 1, 2014, the drug has a total effective tax rate of about 30 percent, depending on local add-on taxes. Through October, the most recent figures available, Colorado collected about $45.4 million from sales and excise taxes on recreational pot sales.

That puts the state on pace to bring in less than the $70 million a year Colorado voters approved when the agreed to a statewide 10 percent sales tax and 15 percent excise tax on recreational pot. Voters set aside the first $40 million in excise taxes for school construction; so far that fund has produced about $10 million. But adding fees and licenses and the taxes from medical marijuana sales, Colorado had collected more than $60 million through October. Local governments can add additional taxes, too.

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[waltky]

... judges ruled in favour of a non-profit marijuana club...

Mexico takes 'historic' step towards legalising marijuana
4 Nov 2015 - Drug campaigners are celebrating in Mexico after the supreme court ruled in favour of a group of activists - a remarkable decision in a country at the heart of the war on cartels

Mexico's supreme court has ruled that a group of cannabis users should be allowed to smoke the drug – effectively opening the door to a wide-reaching discussion about legalisation, in the country which has arguably been worst affected by the worldwide war on drugs. In a landmark interpretation of drug laws, a panel of five judges ruled in favour of a non-profit marijuana club — Mexican Society for Responsible and Tolerant Consumption, or Smart — which argued that the health law contravenes a citizen's right to the "free development of one’s personality."

The ruling means that members of Smart will be allowed to use marijuana for recreational use. And although it does not apply to every Mexican citizen, it is seen as paving the way for future challenges to the existing law. "We won!" said a jubilant Francisco Torres Landa, a lawyer and one of the four members of Smart. He said the "historic" decision had "struck a blow to the spinal column of the prohibitionist strategies," and said the legal battle had been fought for all Mexicans. "This is not just for the four of us," he said. "It is simply to break from this path that we have been on for the past decades. And now we see a distant light at the end of the tunnel."

A supporter of the legalization of marijuana smokes outside the Supreme Court in Mexico City​

Enrique Pena Nieto, the Mexican president, is against the legalising of drugs and his government rejects any relaxation of the rules. Yet with an estimated 80,000 people having died since Felipe Calderon, Mr Pena's predecessor, declared war on the cartels in 2006, many in Mexico and beyond are questioning the current policy. Uruguay became the first country in the world to legalise marijuana, in December 2013, but the policy has not yet been put into practice owing to a change in government. Vincente Fox, the former president of Mexico, and Otto Perez Molina, former Guatemala leader, have both called for a change in strategy.

And Juan Manuel Santos, current president of Colombia, told The Telegraph during his re-election campaign last year that a rethink was needed – although he speaks of a discussion, rather than an immediate legalisation. "The trend toward legalisation is growing in the Americas," said Hannah Hetzer, policy manager of the Americas at the Drug Policy Alliance, a drug reform non-profit. "This decision by the Supreme Court, in a country as symbolically important to the drug war as Mexico, is a huge move forward. "Mexico has been arguing for debate and transparency on the war on drugs internationally but has done less on the home front. This domestic push to mirror its international stance is a really big moment."

Mexico takes 'historic' step towards legalising marijuana

 

[waltky]

Dey sure are puny lookin' plants compared to Granny's...

Gang-ravaged Mexico stuck in weed ban as U.S. opens up
Thu Dec 29, 2016 | Mexican advocates for drug reform are voicing alarm about the country's widening gap with the United States on marijuana legislation, as criminal violence surges again south of the border.

Tens of thousands have been killed over the years in Mexico, on the front line of a U.S.-led war on drugs. The country's prohibitionist approach to marijuana is increasingly at odds with the United States, where liberalization is advancing. California in November became the first state on the U.S.-Mexico border to vote for comprehensive cannabis legalization, further pressuring Mexican legislators to change policy.

Earlier this month Mexico's Senate duly passed a limited medical marijuana bill. But it has yet to be approved by the lower house and critics say it is still far too little. "It's a teeny, tiny reform for an enormous problem in the country," opposition leftist senator Mario Delgado said during the discussion of the medical marijuana bill. "It's absurd that on this side of the border we continue with the violence, the deaths; and on the other side ... this same drug is considered legal for recreational use."

Marijuana plants for sale are displayed at the medical marijuana farmers market at the California Heritage Market in Los Angeles, California​

Driven by widespread gang violence, murders are on track to breach the 20,000 mark in 2016 for the first time in four years, adding to more than 100,000 gang-related deaths in the decade since the government began a military-led crackdown on drug cartels. Many thousands more have disappeared. Pena Nieto said in 2014 that Mexico could not pursue diverging paths with the United States on marijuana. Earlier this year, he submitted a bill to close the gap on U.S. legislation. But his own lawmakers have been reluctant to follow his lead.

Starting with Washington and Colorado in 2012, U.S. states have begun to legalize recreational use of marijuana, and many more now permit medicinal use, as does Canada. California, which has an economy roughly twice the size of Mexico's, was widely seen as a bellwether for a shift in policy. Mexico's Supreme Court last year set the ball rolling in a landmark case, granting four people the right to grow and consume weed, and inspiring hope for change. In April, Pena Nieto proposed decriminalizing possession of up to 28 grams of marijuana for personal use, and said it would allow people jailed for holding up to that amount to go free.

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