Florida: Legalize medical marijuana It's looking like Florida's Medical Marijuana measure has been killed by Sheldon Adelson, who gave $5 million in opposition...85% of the funding against the measure. The latest polling in October: SurveyUSA 10/02/14 - 10/06/1451%33%16%+/-4.1594University of North Florida 9/29/14 - 10/08/1467%28%5%+/-4.7471UF Graham Center 10/07/14 - 10/12/1448%44%7%+/-4.7781Saint Peters Poll 10/08/14 - 10/11/1454%40%6%+/-1.83,128Gravis Marketing 10/22/14 - 10/24/1450%42%8%+/-3.0861Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 10/22/14 - 10/27/1462%35%3%+/-3.4834AVERAGES 57.3% 33.9% 8.5% +/-3.59 1,005Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative Amendment 2 2014 - Ballotpedia Even though most of the polls show over 50%...under Florida law a state constitutional amendment requires 60% approval by voters. Earlier in the year (before Sheldon bombed $5 million) it was looking like the measure would hit 60% (some polls showed above 80% support...), but in the last two months the polls have gotten a lot closer. There is still possibility it will pass, but the measure is certainly in grave danger as of right now. I'm going to say this will be a loser on Tuesday. Alaska: Legalize Recreational Marijuana This one appears totally up in the air as to who will win. Supporters have outspent opposition almost $8 to $1, and Alaska has "The" highest per capita use of Marijuana in the nation. State legislatures have been mostly against legalization ever since 1990, and continue to be to this day. Public Policy Polling 5/8/2014 - 5/11/201448%45%7%+/-4.1582Public Policy Polling 7/31/2014 - 8/3/201444%49%8%+/-3.8673Ivan Moore57.2%38.7%4.2%+/-4.0568Dittman Research43%53%4%+/-4.0600AVERAGES 48.05% 46.43% 5.8% +/-3.98 605.75Alaska Marijuana Legalization Ballot Measure 2 2014 - Ballotpedia All of the polls taken seem to have small sample sizes. No clear winner here, I'm willing to think the money advantage will pay off and supporters will come away with a win. The relatively high use of marijuana in the state might be helpful as well. I'm saying it's a win here come Tuesday. Oregon: Legalize Recreational Marijuana First thing to say about this is the supporters have outspent opposition "HUGELY" in the range of $45 to $1. There really isn't even much organized opposition to the measure in Oregon, no PAC or anything. All except 1 poll has shown it passing, and supporters seem optimistic about their chances. I found a SurveyUSA poll not included in ballotpedia showing it passing 52%. It's important to remember Oregon was the first state in the country to decriminalize marijuana possession. Survey USA 06/05/2014 - 06/09/201451%41%8%+/-4.2560Survey USA 09/22/2014 - 09/24/201444%40%16%+/-4.2568DHM Research 10/08/2014 - 10/11/201452%41%7%+/-4.3516KGW/The Oregonian 10/26/2014 - 10/27/201444%46%7%+/-5403AVERAGES 47.75% 42% 9.5% +/-4.43 511.75Oregon Legalized Marijuana Initiative Measure 91 2014 - Ballotpedia SurveyUSA poll: SurveyUSA Election Poll 21897 10/27/2014 Yes: 52% No: 41% Not Certain: 7% With the huge cash advantage and it being Oregon, you'd think this is an easy win, but the polling is still close. What will matter the most is youth turnout on Tuesday. Younger generations overwhelming support legalization, and the more that show up to vote the better the chances are for this measure. It will be close, but I'm going to say win on this one. Washington DC: Legalize recreational marijuana If it were up to the ballot measure alone this would be an easy win, but congress does have the ability to shut down pretty much anything DC does locally. The ballot measure has support almost 2 to 1 in all polling and supporters as usual have a big cash advantage, but this will be more up to outside forces to see if it takes effect. I'll say win on this one with a small caveat. To sum up on my predictions: Florida: Lose Alaska: Win Oregon: Win DC: Win ballot...but who knows what happens then.