State Marijuana Measures 2014

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Nyvin, Oct 31, 2014.

  1. Nyvin
    Offline

    Nyvin Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,656
    Thanks Received:
    655
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,450
    Florida: Legalize medical marijuana

    It's looking like Florida's Medical Marijuana measure has been killed by Sheldon Adelson, who gave $5 million in opposition...85% of the funding against the measure. The latest polling in October:

    SurveyUSA
    10/02/14 - 10/06/14
    51%33%16%+/-4.1594
    University of North Florida
    9/29/14 - 10/08/14
    67%28%5%+/-4.7471
    UF Graham Center
    10/07/14 - 10/12/14
    48%44%7%+/-4.7781
    Saint Peters Poll
    10/08/14 - 10/11/14
    54%40%6%+/-1.83,128
    Gravis Marketing
    10/22/14 - 10/24/14
    50%42%8%+/-3.0861
    Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
    10/22/14 - 10/27/14
    62%35%3%+/-3.4834
    AVERAGES 57.3% 33.9% 8.5% +/-3.59 1,005
    Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative Amendment 2 2014 - Ballotpedia

    Even though most of the polls show over 50%...under Florida law a state constitutional amendment requires 60% approval by voters. Earlier in the year (before Sheldon bombed $5 million) it was looking like the measure would hit 60% (some polls showed above 80% support...), but in the last two months the polls have gotten a lot closer. There is still possibility it will pass, but the measure is certainly in grave danger as of right now. I'm going to say this will be a loser on Tuesday.

    Alaska: Legalize Recreational Marijuana

    This one appears totally up in the air as to who will win. Supporters have outspent opposition almost $8 to $1, and Alaska has "The" highest per capita use of Marijuana in the nation. State legislatures have been mostly against legalization ever since 1990, and continue to be to this day.

    Public Policy Polling
    5/8/2014 - 5/11/2014
    48%45%7%+/-4.1582
    Public Policy Polling
    7/31/2014 - 8/3/2014
    44%49%8%+/-3.8673
    Ivan Moore57.2%38.7%4.2%+/-4.0568
    Dittman Research43%53%4%+/-4.0600
    AVERAGES 48.05% 46.43% 5.8% +/-3.98 605.75
    Alaska Marijuana Legalization Ballot Measure 2 2014 - Ballotpedia

    All of the polls taken seem to have small sample sizes. No clear winner here, I'm willing to think the money advantage will pay off and supporters will come away with a win. The relatively high use of marijuana in the state might be helpful as well. I'm saying it's a win here come Tuesday.

    Oregon: Legalize Recreational Marijuana

    First thing to say about this is the supporters have outspent opposition "HUGELY" in the range of $45 to $1. There really isn't even much organized opposition to the measure in Oregon, no PAC or anything. All except 1 poll has shown it passing, and supporters seem optimistic about their chances. I found a SurveyUSA poll not included in ballotpedia showing it passing 52%. It's important to remember Oregon was the first state in the country to decriminalize marijuana possession.

    Survey USA
    06/05/2014 - 06/09/2014
    51%41%8%+/-4.2560
    Survey USA
    09/22/2014 - 09/24/2014
    44%40%16%+/-4.2568
    DHM Research
    10/08/2014 - 10/11/2014
    52%41%7%+/-4.3516
    KGW/The Oregonian
    10/26/2014 - 10/27/2014
    44%46%7%+/-5403
    AVERAGES 47.75% 42% 9.5% +/-4.43 511.75
    Oregon Legalized Marijuana Initiative Measure 91 2014 - Ballotpedia

    SurveyUSA poll: SurveyUSA Election Poll 21897
    10/27/2014
    Yes: 52%
    No: 41%
    Not Certain: 7%

    With the huge cash advantage and it being Oregon, you'd think this is an easy win, but the polling is still close. What will matter the most is youth turnout on Tuesday. Younger generations overwhelming support legalization, and the more that show up to vote the better the chances are for this measure. It will be close, but I'm going to say win on this one.

    Washington DC: Legalize recreational marijuana

    If it were up to the ballot measure alone this would be an easy win, but congress does have the ability to shut down pretty much anything DC does locally. The ballot measure has support almost 2 to 1 in all polling and supporters as usual have a big cash advantage, but this will be more up to outside forces to see if it takes effect. I'll say win on this one with a small caveat.

    To sum up on my predictions:

    Florida: Lose
    Alaska: Win
    Oregon: Win
    DC: Win ballot...but who knows what happens then.
     
  2. Katzndogz
    Offline

    Katzndogz Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    65,658
    Thanks Received:
    7,425
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Ratings:
    +8,360
    Pro pot has been shaky for awhile. It hasn't worked out well for either Washington or Colorado.

    Outlook for states apos pot legalization measures goes from solid to shaky - LA Times

    From the LA Times no less. CA has had legal medical marijuana for 16 years. That's why pro potheads can't get an initiative on the ballot to legalize recreational use. They got it on once and it failed. Now they can't get enough signatures to qualify.
     
  3. waltky
    Offline

    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    23,692
    Thanks Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Okolona, KY
    Ratings:
    +5,115
    Granny says, "Dat's right - see there, tol' ya so...

    Pot-Positive Traffic Fatalities Up 100% in Colorado
    November 26, 2014 - At first blush, it may appear that the fight to thwart marijuana legalization is a lost cause. Pot pushers want you to believe that legalization is inevitable. They point to legalization successes this November in Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia.
     
  4. waltky
    Offline

    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    23,692
    Thanks Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Okolona, KY
    Ratings:
    +5,115
    So, is it really worth it after all?...

    Denver shelters cite legal pot in homeless upswing
    December 24, 2014 — Chris Easterling was sick of relying on drug dealers in Minneapolis when he needed marijuana to help ease the pain of multiple sclerosis. They were flaky, often leaving the homeless man without the drug when he needed relief the most.
    See also:

    Legal weed brings tax boost, but it's modest
    January 2, 2015 — To see the tax implications of legalizing marijuana in Colorado, there's no better place to start than an empty plot of land on a busy thoroughfare near downtown Denver.

     
  5. waltky
    Offline

    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    23,692
    Thanks Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Okolona, KY
    Ratings:
    +5,115
    ... judges ruled in favour of a non-profit marijuana club...

    Mexico takes 'historic' step towards legalising marijuana
    4 Nov 2015 - Drug campaigners are celebrating in Mexico after the supreme court ruled in favour of a group of activists - a remarkable decision in a country at the heart of the war on cartels
     
  6. waltky
    Offline

    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    23,692
    Thanks Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Okolona, KY
    Ratings:
    +5,115
    Dey sure are puny lookin' plants compared to Granny's...
    [​IMG]
    Gang-ravaged Mexico stuck in weed ban as U.S. opens up
    Thu Dec 29, 2016 | Mexican advocates for drug reform are voicing alarm about the country's widening gap with the United States on marijuana legislation, as criminal violence surges again south of the border.
     

Share This Page