'splain this to me, please!

Discussion in 'Politics' started by swizzlee, May 9, 2012.

  1. swizzlee
    Offline

    swizzlee RedWhiteAndBlue

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    727
    Thanks Received:
    124
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    on a mountain
    Ratings:
    +124
    'cause I'm SO confused!

    Historically it's always been accepted, with much evidence to support it, that when a member of a particular party decides to run as an Indie, that person causes a split in that party's votes with the usual result that the other party wins.

    So Rasmussen just did a national poll of 1000 likely voters on choices in a THREE-way race with Romney, Obama, and Paul.

    Historically Obama wins.

    Three-Way Race: Romney 44%, Obama 39%, Ron Paul 13% - Rasmussen Reports™

    Wrong! Ronmey 44, Obama 39, Paul 13.

    What the HELL is going on here?? Would we be wrong in believing the majority of Paul's supporters are Pubs? Or are we overlooking the number of times we've heard that Paul attracts a lot of YOUNG people? Are those kids registered Dem or Pub? And in what percentages?

    If most are Pubs, will they vote for Romney or sit at home?

    I find this fascinating [but then again, I'm easily amused - Keith JUDD for Prez!!!]

    Any theories on this?
     
  2. blastoff
    Offline

    blastoff Undocumented Reg. User

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2009
    Messages:
    13,494
    Thanks Received:
    1,707
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Location:
    In a galaxy far far away...
    Ratings:
    +4,594
    Somebody remember to wake Paul up after it's over.
     
  3. washamericom
    Offline

    washamericom Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2010
    Messages:
    9,381
    Thanks Received:
    735
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +2,700
    i've only been in a couple of threeways, so i'm no expert...

    some are saying that the paul supporters won't vote at all when/if paul drops out.

    paul is 78 years old, i find it remarkable that that hasn't come up more. i think it's great though. someday we should have an eighty year old president. age and wisdom. it also strikes me from time to time how the libertarian right comes full circle to meet the liberal bent left, so maybe the occupiers will vote for paul and the paul gang will embrace obamavich. isn't gary johnson the default independent ?
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2012
  4. theDoctorisIn
    Offline

    theDoctorisIn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    29,998
    Thanks Received:
    5,787
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    East, but still West
    Ratings:
    +11,932
    A lot of those "Paul" votes will go to Obama, not Romney.
     
  5. swizzlee
    Offline

    swizzlee RedWhiteAndBlue

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    727
    Thanks Received:
    124
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    on a mountain
    Ratings:
    +124
    But the question is why?

    Paul is a Publican/Libertarian. There is nothing at all liberal/Democratic about that particular mix.

    That doesn't make sense. And what's a lot? 30%? 50? 70?
     
  6. The Rabbi
    Offline

    The Rabbi Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2009
    Messages:
    67,619
    Thanks Received:
    7,821
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Nashville
    Ratings:
    +18,214
    Paul supporters aren't enough to tip the balance. All the gloating about Romney losing without them is empty.
     
  7. theDoctorisIn
    Offline

    theDoctorisIn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    29,998
    Thanks Received:
    5,787
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    East, but still West
    Ratings:
    +11,932
    Nonsense. I'm about as left-wing as they come, and I agree with Ron Paul on around 70% of his platform.

    It's the other 30% that keeps me from being a Paul supporter.

    Paul is very popular with young people (a traditionally Democratic bloc) - because of his views on social issues. Those people aren't going to vote for Romney.

    It makes sense once you learn that everyone has their own political views, and it's not as simple as Liberal vs. Conservative or Left vs. Right.

    And I don't have a number to give you.
     
  8. swizzlee
    Offline

    swizzlee RedWhiteAndBlue

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    727
    Thanks Received:
    124
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    on a mountain
    Ratings:
    +124
    Paul is very popular with young people (a traditionally Democratic bloc) - because of his views on social issues. Those people aren't going to vote for Romney.

    You're not really providing anything helpful but only reinforcing my confusion. You're claiming most of Paul's supporters are Dems/liberals who will not vote for Romney.

    Then why the hell are they supporting Paul, a Pub, instead of Obama? If they're not willing to support Obama, the man who will actually be on the ticket, it sounds to me as if they won't vote for Obama either. They will sit it out.

    And as that poll shows, that would mean Obama will lose the election. He's earnestly trying to win back that youth group as we speak.


    It makes sense once you learn that everyone has their own political views, and it's not as simple as Liberal vs. Conservative or Left vs. Right.


    I'm well aware of that fact but I'm a life-long Indie and wouldn't dream of claiming to be an expert on party idealogies beyond the very obvious. Your explanation of these young liberals who support Paul just confirms my belief that most kids [having been one many decades ago] don't know which end is up :)
     
  9. blackhawk
    Offline

    blackhawk Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2012
    Messages:
    17,722
    Thanks Received:
    3,399
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Deep in the heart of Texas.
    Ratings:
    +9,059
    I'm not really sure what demographic supports Paul.
     
  10. theDoctorisIn
    Offline

    theDoctorisIn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    29,998
    Thanks Received:
    5,787
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    East, but still West
    Ratings:
    +11,932
    They're supporting Paul because he's better on social issues than Obama is. You're making too big of a deal over party registration.

    But Obama is still better than Romney - those aren't votes that Romney will get.

    No, that's not what the poll shows at all.

    If you're a life-long indie, why are you making such a big deal about political parties?

    Could it be that young "liberals" will support a "Republican" if he's better on social issues than the "Democrat" is?
     

Share This Page