'splain this to me, please!

[swizzlee]

'cause I'm SO confused!

Historically it's always been accepted, with much evidence to support it, that when a member of a particular party decides to run as an Indie, that person causes a split in that party's votes with the usual result that the other party wins.

So Rasmussen just did a national poll of 1000 likely voters on choices in a THREE-way race with Romney, Obama, and Paul.

Historically Obama wins.

Three-Way Race: Romney 44%, Obama 39%, Ron Paul 13% - Rasmussen Reports™

Wrong! Ronmey 44, Obama 39, Paul 13.

What the HELL is going on here?? Would we be wrong in believing the majority of Paul's supporters are Pubs? Or are we overlooking the number of times we've heard that Paul attracts a lot of YOUNG people? Are those kids registered Dem or Pub? And in what percentages?

If most are Pubs, will they vote for Romney or sit at home?

I find this fascinating [but then again, I'm easily amused - Keith JUDD for Prez!!!]

Any theories on this?

 

[blastoff]

Somebody remember to wake Paul up after it's over.

 

[washamericom]

i've only been in a couple of threeways, so i'm no expert...

some are saying that the paul supporters won't vote at all when/if paul drops out.

paul is 78 years old, i find it remarkable that that hasn't come up more. i think it's great though. someday we should have an eighty year old president. age and wisdom. it also strikes me from time to time how the libertarian right comes full circle to meet the liberal bent left, so maybe the occupiers will vote for paul and the paul gang will embrace obamavich. isn't gary johnson the default independent ?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

A lot of those "Paul" votes will go to Obama, not Romney.

 

[swizzlee]

But the question is why?

Paul is a Publican/Libertarian. There is nothing at all liberal/Democratic about that particular mix.

That doesn't make sense. And what's a lot? 30%? 50? 70?

 

[The Rabbi]

Paul supporters aren't enough to tip the balance. All the gloating about Romney losing without them is empty.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

But the question is why?

Paul is a Publican/Libertarian. There is nothing at all liberal/Democratic about that particular mix.

Nonsense. I'm about as left-wing as they come, and I agree with Ron Paul on around 70% of his platform.

It's the other 30% that keeps me from being a Paul supporter.

Paul is very popular with young people (a traditionally Democratic bloc) - because of his views on social issues. Those people aren't going to vote for Romney.

That doesn't make sense. And what's a lot? 30%? 50? 70?

It makes sense once you learn that everyone has their own political views, and it's not as simple as Liberal vs. Conservative or Left vs. Right.

And I don't have a number to give you.

 

[swizzlee]

Paul is very popular with young people (a traditionally Democratic bloc) - because of his views on social issues. Those people aren't going to vote for Romney.

You're not really providing anything helpful but only reinforcing my confusion. You're claiming most of Paul's supporters are Dems/liberals who will not vote for Romney.

Then why the hell are they supporting Paul, a Pub, instead of Obama? If they're not willing to support Obama, the man who will actually be on the ticket, it sounds to me as if they won't vote for Obama either. They will sit it out.

And as that poll shows, that would mean Obama will lose the election. He's earnestly trying to win back that youth group as we speak.


It makes sense once you learn that everyone has their own political views, and it's not as simple as Liberal vs. Conservative or Left vs. Right.

I'm well aware of that fact but I'm a life-long Indie and wouldn't dream of claiming to be an expert on party idealogies beyond the very obvious. Your explanation of these young liberals who support Paul just confirms my belief that most kids [having been one many decades ago] don't know which end is up

 

[blackhawk]

I'm not really sure what demographic supports Paul.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Paul is very popular with young people (a traditionally Democratic bloc) - because of his views on social issues. Those people aren't going to vote for Romney.

You're not really providing anything helpful but only reinforcing my confusion. You're claiming most of Paul's supporters are Dems/liberals who will not vote for Romney.

Then why the hell are they supporting Paul, a Pub, instead of Obama? If they're not willing to support Obama, the man who will actually be on the ticket, it sounds to me as if they won't vote for Obama either. They will sit it out.

They're supporting Paul because he's better on social issues than Obama is. You're making too big of a deal over party registration.

But Obama is still better than Romney - those aren't votes that Romney will get.

And as that poll shows, that would mean Obama will lose the election. He's earnestly trying to win back that youth group as we speak.

No, that's not what the poll shows at all.

It makes sense once you learn that everyone has their own political views, and it's not as simple as Liberal vs. Conservative or Left vs. Right.

I'm well aware of that fact but I'm a life-long Indie and wouldn't dream of claiming to be an expert on party idealogies beyond the very obvious. Your explanation of these young liberals who support Paul just confirms my belief that most kids [having been one many decades ago] don't know which end is up

If you're a life-long indie, why are you making such a big deal about political parties?

Could it be that young "liberals" will support a "Republican" if he's better on social issues than the "Democrat" is?

 

[LeftofLeft]

Paul is not going to run. He is going to get a sweet deal from Romney.

 

[The Rabbi]

I'm not really sure what demographic supports Paul.

 

[The Rabbi]

But the question is why?

Paul is a Publican/Libertarian. There is nothing at all liberal/Democratic about that particular mix.

Nonsense. I'm about as left-wing as they come, and I agree with Ron Paul on around 70% of his platform.

I

Yup. Makes perfect sense. Exactly what I've been saying.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Paul is not going to run. He is going to get a sweet deal from Romney.

I don't think he's going to run either, but I don't think Romney's going to give him a deal to get him out. I bet Romney wishes he would run as a third-party candidate.

 

[swizzlee]

They're supporting Paul because he's better on social issues than Obama is. You're making too big of a deal over party registration.

What "social issues" is Paul espousing that are "better" than Obama's?


But Obama is still better than Romney - those aren't votes that Romney will get.

That is strictly your personal opinion which is no more reliable than my saying they will sit out the election. But at least I produced a reason why I believe most would sit it out.

And as that poll shows, that would mean Obama will lose the election. He's earnestly trying to win back that youth group as we speak.

No, that's not what the poll shows at all.

Yes, it does. That poll showed Romney 44, Obama 39. IF, as I stated, those kids supporting Paul sit it out, no matter the percent, Obama gains nothing leaving Romney still ahead and the winner.


If you're a life-long indie, why are you making such a big deal about political parties?

Huh?? You DO realize Indies aren't an established party, don't you? That in most elections there are only a very few candidates who are self-described as Independent? That Indies such as I must determine which candidate within the two established parties we will vote for?

I'm not making a big deal out of parties. I am questioning the meaning of what I see as rather strange poll results.

Could it be that young "liberals" will support a "Republican" if he's better on social issues than the "Democrat" is?

That still comes back to what you think those social issues are. I don't deny I've paid little attention to Paul because his position on foreign affairs can only be described as ludicrous. My question would be this - if these "social issues" are so radically different from either Romney or Obama, would you not think they would just sit it out? If these "social issues" are most similar to either Romney or Obama, why did these kids opt for Paul? Just to be ornery as so many idealistic kids can be? Of course, some may vote for O, some may vote for R, just confirming my initial belief - kids don't know their ass from a...................!