Specter signs Bennet letter, enjoys surge in polls

[goldcatt]

Specter will not win...

PA Democratics spent years hating the man as an R and the party faithful won't be enough to carry him....

He's toast....

You don't understand PA politics. Democrats in a lot of the state are more conservative, and the urban liberals are often straight ticket die hards. Plus his probable challenger reminds too many people of a certain other Senator we kicked out in 2006. Specter's got a shot. Whether I approve or not is another matter, but we'll see what the primary voters do. Maybe Toomey won't get the Republican nod, but I don't know how that would happen. The GOP and think tanks have poured way too much time and money into him over the last year and a half to give up on their investment now.

I understand my state's politics well...

I don't think Specter will get as much of the hardline vote as you believe he will as voter apathy will be strong... I don't believe the power of the big cities will come out to support his ass without the draw of Barry to get them to the polls.... They won't be energized to vote for a carreer inside-the-beltway old white guy....

This is the first time he's had to run as a D and even left-leaning folks such as yourself will have a hard time pulling his lever after so many years of pulling the lever of his opponent... Many will stay home - I think you even mentioned that possibility... Santorum shot himself in the foot so many times that people didn't vote for him based on the creepyness factor... Toomey will benefit from the lack of enthusiasm for good ol' Arlen in the inner cities...

I think you're right about apathy and low turnout, but it will be across the board. You underestimate the current lack of enthusiasm for Toomey out here in the conservative/independent middle of the T. Among people who know who he is, anyway.

Remember where Toomey came from and who pushed him into the spotlight, he was initially supposed to be the uber-conservative culture warrior primary challenger to unseat Specter the RINO in the primary. He ain't no Scott Brown. He ain't even no Specter. And he sure as hell ain't no Casey.

That will play in some areas, mostly the rural North and West, the Anthracite region and the native-populated parts of the Pokes. But you don't win PA with the rural North and West as a con. You need a wide margin in the center, a strong showing in the Pokes, the moderate Reps in the Philly burbs and the ABE area - and if you follow PA politics you know how ABE swings. That's why Specter lasted so long, he was and is a total bastard but independent enough to capture the old Reagan democrats and moderate republicans in the burbs and smaller metro areas.

Not that I'm a particular fan of Darlin Arlen, but I don't care what the polls say. This ain't over till it's over. I wish the R's were running a moderate, independent mined RINO instead of this Toomey joker, I might have someone to vote for.

 

[goldcatt]

I think voters in general detest this kind of opportunism. He can't have won any friends among the die hards, and among the rest, they would hold their noses anyway.

If it is a contest between a young energetic true believer and a has been perpetual running machine who you never liked anyway.....

And I think voters are in a toss the bums mood anyway.

I can't speak to PA politics, but human nature makes me doubt he could get 40% in the primary. Not unless the challenger is a total kook, and even then, I think an honest kook would do better than a slithery opportunist this season.

That's your problem right there, Baruch. The general election voters the Republicans count on here tend to be more independent minded and don't usually trust True Believers, even if they want to toss the current bum out. See Paul Kanjorski as one example from 2008. A walking litmus test for ideological purity won't get them pumped and out to the polls the way it might in more ideologically driven places. If Specter and Toomey win their respective primaries (and so far it looks that way) I'm not calling this one. Just wait.