Sound of Settled Science: Polar Bear Edition

[Sunsettommy]

Why don't you have a look at the work of Shakun and Marcott and count the citations. YOU obviously don't know what the fuck you're talking about. Mating different datasets where necessary and completely characterized, is acceptable and widely used.

Marcott ADMITTED that the Instrumental part of his chart is NO GOOD!

Shakun's paper is junk science since he did some serious statistical malpractice as shown in detail HERE and failed to be honest about the CO2 data as shown HERE.

Number of citations are irrelevant, reproducibility with full data access is.

 

[Crick]

And what portion of this chart is instrument data? Anything you'd be interested in if you were looking at Holocene data?

As for your WUWT arrticles criticizing the work of Shakun, I strongly suggest you look up the qualifications of Willis Eschenbach, their author.

Willis Eschenbach
Credentials

• California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage, Oakland, CA. (1974).
• B.A., Psychology, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA. (1975).
• “Curriculum Vitæ: Willis Eschenbach” (.doc). Retrieved from apple.com MobileMe.

and

Willis Eschenbach, B.A. Psychology, Sonoma State University (1975); California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage (1974); Commercial Fisherman (1968, 1969, 1971, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1994, 1995); Auto Mechanic, People's Garage (1969-1970); Cabinet Maker, A.D. Gibson Co. (1972); Office Manager, Honolulu Emergency Labor Pool (1972); Construction Manager, Autogenic Systems Inc. (1973); Assistant Driller, Mirror Mountain Enterprises (1975-1976); Tax Preparer, Beneficial Financial Company (1977); Accountant, Farallones Institute (1977-1978); Peace Corps and USAID (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1993, 1994); Cabinet Maker, Richard Vacha Cabinets (1986); County Director, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1986-1988); General Manager, Liapari Limited (1989-1992); Regional Health Coordinator, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1994-1995); Project Manager, Eschenbach Construction Company (1995-2003); Construction Manager, Koro Sun Limited (1999); Construction Manager, Taunovo Bay Resort (2003-2006); Accounts/IT Senior Manager, South Pacific Oil (2007-2010); House Carpenter (2012-Present)
Popular Technology.net: Who is Willis Eschenbach?

and now for Jeremy Shakun, Asst Professor of Paleoclimatology at Boston College
EDUCATION

• B.A., Middlebury College
• M.S., University of Massachusetts, Amherst
• Ph.D., Oregon State University
• CV: https://www.bc.edu/content/dam/bc1/...ages/Full_time_faculty/ShakunJ_CV_Feb2018.pdf

And Shaun A Marcott, Assistant Professor of Paleoclimatology at the University of Wisconsin - Madison

Marcott's two works on Holocene temperature reconstruction have a total of 1,326 citations. Shakuns six published papers on Holocene temperature reconstructions have netted 3,666 citations. I suspect you're not familiar with a citation. These are the number of times these works have been used as references in other published papers. So, if you think Shakun and Marcott have been discredited, the science community seems to be completely unaware of it.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

You keep repeating the lies, and are too much of a coward to post links to let us laugh at whatever stupid website you get that crap from.

 

[Weatherman2020]

And what portion of this chart is instrument data? Anything you'd be interested in if you were looking at Holocene data?

As for your WUWT arrticles criticizing the work of Shakun, I strongly suggest you look up the qualifications of Willis Eschenbach, their author.

Willis Eschenbach
Credentials

• California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage, Oakland, CA. (1974).
• B.A., Psychology, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA. (1975).
• “Curriculum Vitæ: Willis Eschenbach” (.doc). Retrieved from apple.com MobileMe.

and

Willis Eschenbach, B.A. Psychology, Sonoma State University (1975); California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage (1974); Commercial Fisherman (1968, 1969, 1971, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1994, 1995); Auto Mechanic, People's Garage (1969-1970); Cabinet Maker, A.D. Gibson Co. (1972); Office Manager, Honolulu Emergency Labor Pool (1972); Construction Manager, Autogenic Systems Inc. (1973); Assistant Driller, Mirror Mountain Enterprises (1975-1976); Tax Preparer, Beneficial Financial Company (1977); Accountant, Farallones Institute (1977-1978); Peace Corps and USAID (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1993, 1994); Cabinet Maker, Richard Vacha Cabinets (1986); County Director, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1986-1988); General Manager, Liapari Limited (1989-1992); Regional Health Coordinator, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1994-1995); Project Manager, Eschenbach Construction Company (1995-2003); Construction Manager, Koro Sun Limited (1999); Construction Manager, Taunovo Bay Resort (2003-2006); Accounts/IT Senior Manager, South Pacific Oil (2007-2010); House Carpenter (2012-Present)
Popular Technology.net: Who is Willis Eschenbach?

and now for Jeremy Shakun, Asst Professor of Paleoclimatology at Boston College
EDUCATION

• B.A., Middlebury College
• M.S., University of Massachusetts, Amherst
• Ph.D., Oregon State University
• CV: https://www.bc.edu/content/dam/bc1/...ages/Full_time_faculty/ShakunJ_CV_Feb2018.pdf

And Shaun A Marcott, Assistant Professor of Paleoclimatology at the University of Wisconsin - Madison

Marcott's two works on Holocene temperature reconstruction have a total of 1,326 citations. Shakuns six published papers on Holocene temperature reconstructions have netted 3,666 citations. I suspect you're not familiar with a citation. These are the number of times these works have been used as references in other published papers. So, if you think Shakun and Marcott have been discredited, the science community seems to be completely unaware of it.

Bernard Madoff has a better resume and what is he famous for?
You are a sucker.

 

[Crick]

Better than Eschenbach? My dog has a better resume. Anyone who takes Eschenbach as an expert on anything save AAAA Bullshit is a sucker.

 

[Crick]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

You keep repeating the lies, and are too much of a coward to post links to let us laugh at whatever stupid website you get that crap from.

My apologies. The source for that data was a study by the US Fish and Wildlife Service published by the Royal Society at Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

 

[gipper]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

You keep repeating the lies, and are too much of a coward to post links to let us laugh at whatever stupid website you get that crap from.

My apologies. The source for that data was a study by the US Fish and Wildlife Service published by the Royal Society at Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

That makes it so much better. LOL.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Why don't you have a look at the work of Shakun and Marcott and count the citations. YOU obviously don't know what the fuck you're talking about. Mating different datasets where necessary and completely characterized, is acceptable and widely used.

Marcott ADMITTED that the Instrumental part of his chart is NO GOOD!

Shakun's paper is junk science since he did some serious statistical malpractice as shown in detail HERE and failed to be honest about the CO2 data as shown HERE.

Number of citations are irrelevant, reproducibility with full data access is.

We have the side by side CO2 in the ice bubble data, or Shankuns faked, wrong "proxies" which is more accurate?

 

[Crick]

That makes it so much better. LOL.

Thank you.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

You keep repeating the lies, and are too much of a coward to post links to let us laugh at whatever stupid website you get that crap from.

My apologies. The source for that data was a study by the US Fish and Wildlife Service published by the Royal Society at Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

BS, fabricated by Environazis who get money by pushing crap science.

Fact remains the population of Polar Bears has exploded to the point of being a major danger to humans.

 

[Crick]

The US Fish and Wildlife Service? It's scientists do not work for grants, fool. What experts do you have that aren't receiving funding? Charity research?

 

[Sunsettommy]

And what portion of this chart is instrument data? Anything you'd be interested in if you were looking at Holocene data?

As for your WUWT arrticles criticizing the work of Shakun, I strongly suggest you look up the qualifications of Willis Eschenbach, their author.

Willis Eschenbach
Credentials

• California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage, Oakland, CA. (1974).
• B.A., Psychology, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA. (1975).
• “Curriculum Vitæ: Willis Eschenbach” (.doc). Retrieved from apple.com MobileMe.

and

Willis Eschenbach, B.A. Psychology, Sonoma State University (1975); California Massage Certificate, Aames School of Massage (1974); Commercial Fisherman (1968, 1969, 1971, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1994, 1995); Auto Mechanic, People's Garage (1969-1970); Cabinet Maker, A.D. Gibson Co. (1972); Office Manager, Honolulu Emergency Labor Pool (1972); Construction Manager, Autogenic Systems Inc. (1973); Assistant Driller, Mirror Mountain Enterprises (1975-1976); Tax Preparer, Beneficial Financial Company (1977); Accountant, Farallones Institute (1977-1978); Peace Corps and USAID (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1993, 1994); Cabinet Maker, Richard Vacha Cabinets (1986); County Director, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1986-1988); General Manager, Liapari Limited (1989-1992); Regional Health Coordinator, Foundation for the People of the South Pacific (1994-1995); Project Manager, Eschenbach Construction Company (1995-2003); Construction Manager, Koro Sun Limited (1999); Construction Manager, Taunovo Bay Resort (2003-2006); Accounts/IT Senior Manager, South Pacific Oil (2007-2010); House Carpenter (2012-Present)
Popular Technology.net: Who is Willis Eschenbach?

and now for Jeremy Shakun, Asst Professor of Paleoclimatology at Boston College
EDUCATION

• B.A., Middlebury College
• M.S., University of Massachusetts, Amherst
• Ph.D., Oregon State University
• CV: https://www.bc.edu/content/dam/bc1/...ages/Full_time_faculty/ShakunJ_CV_Feb2018.pdf

And Shaun A Marcott, Assistant Professor of Paleoclimatology at the University of Wisconsin - Madison

Marcott's two works on Holocene temperature reconstruction have a total of 1,326 citations. Shakuns six published papers on Holocene temperature reconstructions have netted 3,666 citations. I suspect you're not familiar with a citation. These are the number of times these works have been used as references in other published papers. So, if you think Shakun and Marcott have been discredited, the science community seems to be completely unaware of it.

This is why you are so gosh darn ignorant!

You didn't even try to see what Willis exposed with the CO2 deception and the temperature proxy data that was all over the map. It was played out in his 4 postings using Shakun's own data and additional data, Shakun deliberately left out. Since you continue to refuse to see what he presents, you have no idea what he exposed, which is why you are a fool for being so closeminded.

Here is a key part in why Willis effectively destroyed the Shakun paper:

"Today I was thinking about that single record that they used for the CO2 changes. I got to wondering what other ice core CO2 records might show about the change in CO2. So I went and downloaded every ice core CO2 record that I could find that covered the time period 26,000 BC to modern times. I found a number of ice core records that cover the period.

Then I collated all of them in Excel, saved them as a CSV file, opened the file in R, and plotted every ice core CO2 record that covered the record from 26,000 BC up to the present. I standardized them over the same period covered by the Shakun2012 CO2 data. There was excellent agreement between the Shakun2012 data and the ice core records I had downloaded … but there was also a surprise.

Figure 2 shows the surprise …



Figure 2. As in Figure 1. Black circles show Shakun2012 CO2. Additional colored dots show the ice core CO2 records which have data from 26,000 BC to the present.

Dang, I didn’t expect that rise in CO2 that started about 6,000 BC. I do love climate science, it always surprises me … but the big surprise was not what the ice core records showed. It was what the Shakun2012 authors didn’t show.

I’m sure you can see just what those bad-boy scientists have done. Look how they have cut the modern end of the ice core CO2 record short, right at the time when CO2 started to rise again …

I leave the readers to consider the fact that for most of the Holocene, eight centuries millennia or so, half a dozen different ice core records say that CO2 levels were rising pretty fast by geological standards … and despite that, the temperatures have been dropping over the last eight millennia …"

Meanwhile your education and Authority fallacy is a truly stupid argument to make since it doesn't prove anything. It is all about the efficacy of the argument that matters, which you are losing very badly here since you REFUSE to see the valid criticism laid against DR. Shakun's garbage paper. I am sure you will ignore DR. Easterbrook's TWO PART review of the Shakun paper since he finds serious problems with it.

HERE

HERE

Your deflection has failed since you NEVER have answered several questions I posed for you, that Polar Bears are NOT in decline even with that significant drop in ice cover extent. That you ignore research showing that Polar Bears get most of their calories for the year from March-July when there are ALWAYS sufficient sea ice cover. You keep ignoring published research of little to NO sea ice cover in the Summer for centuries, while Polar Bears and Eskimos survived and the world was not devasated.

You make clear you prefer far into the future models over valid research and ignore inconvenient research that destroys your warmist/alarmist claims.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Why don't you have a look at the work of Shakun and Marcott and count the citations. YOU obviously don't know what the fuck you're talking about. Mating different datasets where necessary and completely characterized, is acceptable and widely used.

Marcott ADMITTED that the Instrumental part of his chart is NO GOOD!

Shakun's paper is junk science since he did some serious statistical malpractice as shown in detail HERE and failed to be honest about the CO2 data as shown HERE.

Number of citations are irrelevant, reproducibility with full data access is.

We have the side by side CO2 in the ice bubble data, or Shankuns faked, wrong "proxies" which is more accurate?

DR. Shakun didn't really faked anything, he OMITTED key CO2 data and used a large set of temperature proxies that doesn't come close to matching up with each other in the same time frame.

 

[Crick]

Shakun's appendation of modern temperature data was NOT part of this central thesis. If you don't like it, chop it off and throw it away. If you want to criticize his choice of proxies, I think you've picked off more than you can chew. Shakun and Marcott's work was the largest assemblage of proxy data ever made. As for the rest, you are taking the opinion of a massage therapist as to what is and is not critical CO2 data. Sorry. The best way to handle the inputs of Eschenbach is to simply toss them in the trash.

 

[IanC]

Shakun's appendation of modern temperature data was NOT part of this central thesis. If you don't like it, chop it off and throw it away. If you want to criticize his choice of proxies, I think you've picked off more than you can chew. Shakun and Marcott's work was the largest assemblage of proxy data ever made. As for the rest, you are taking the opinion of a massage therapist as to what is and is not critical CO2 data. Sorry. The best way to handle the inputs of Eschenbach is to simply toss them in the trash.

The questions asked by Willis have nothing to do with his credentials. Ideas stand by themselves.

Shakun truncated the CO2 record that continued upwards even though the temperature was dropping. Why didn't he just leave it in?

Marcott revamped his non controversial doctorate thesis with the help of Shakun and Mann to show a hockey stick. It was statistically and methodologically incorrect. It wasn't caught in peer review, and it wasn't acknowledged to be wrong until AFTER the media storm was completed and the false narrative firmly established.

 

[Crick]

What media storm and what false narrative? The only reaction I recall to both their papers were yawns. And where could I see details to the charges you've just made about their work?