Something Doesn't pass the smell test on these Ohio polls

[teapartysamurai]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Let's go right through them:

Washington Post poll: Obama +8​

Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com)

But check out these internals!:

Democrat: 35% Republican: 25% Independent: 32% Other 5% No opinion: 4%

Now, I don't know if that's how it's weighted or, it's simply that's all they could get through land lines, but that's HUGELY disproportionate to the real voters. They find voter registrations are just about equal. There are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the voting populace. In other words, inaccurate poll!



Now, the next poll:

Gravis Marketing: Obama +1 ​

Report, Ohio Sep 21-22, 2012(1)

Democrat: 41.4% Republican: 31:1% Independent: 27.5%

Just really really really oversampling Democrats!

Purple Strategies Obama +4​

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

Democrat: 38% Republican: 36% Independent: 26% Other: 2%

This is actually the most fair poll yet, but when you put the poll equally and consider the margin of error, it's a toss up!

Fox News: Obama +7​

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Democrat: 42% Republican: 36% Independent: 21% Other:1%

Now, THIS is really oversampled. You take away the over sampling and it puts it back again as a toss up!

University of Cincinnati: Obama +5​

Divided state still a toss-up | Cincinnati.com | cincinnati.com

Now, the U of Cin won't give their internals. Which I find interesting BUT if you take their online poll:

Cincinnati.com | Results: | cincinnati.com

It goes HUGE for Romney. Yes, I know an online poll is not a "scientific poll" but I bet it reaches more people than these land line polls


Last but not Least:

Rasmussen: Obama +1​

Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

You have to pay these greedy buggers to get their internals, but with a margin of error of 4.5%, once again toss up!

These polls are all over the place and most of them are demonstrably oversampled.

If they have to do that to show Obama ahead, what's it really going to be like on election day.

We shall see.

November is coming!

 

[Plasmaball]

Ah the I disagree with what's happening so therefore it must be a conspiracy thread.

Its always something with you people.

 

[teapartysamurai]

Ah the I disagree with what's happening so therefore it must be a conspiracy thread.

Its always something with you people.

I'm not giving a "conspiracy." I'm giving Democrats are being oversampled.

Even you have to agree there are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the general voting public.

I mean PLEASE!

I think there are a lot of reasons this could be happening.

For one Republicans work, are not on welfare, therefore are more likely to be tech saavy.

For example, my household hasn't had a land line in a long time.

There are many reasons this could be happening, but it's pretty obvious most of the polls are oversampled Democrats.

If you don't believe me, follow the links I supplied and read the internals yourself.

I just made it easy for you and put the internals on the page.

November is coming.

 

[Leweman]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

 

[teapartysamurai]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

Well, that's the point I'm making.

They are HUGELY inaccurate.

There is no way there are 10% more Democrats than Republicans in Ohio.

Yes, the big three (Columbus, Cincy, and Cleveland) are Democrat, but rest of Ohio is BIGTIME REPUBLICAN.

And Ohio went HUGE for Republicans in the last election, but the "experts" keep telling us Ohio is in the blue category?

Just doesn't add up.

I could be wrong, but I just don't think these polls are reflecting voter turnout. I think they are trying to influence voter turnout.

I've seen this before in other elections.

The election of 1980, Carter/Reagan springs instantly to mind.

The polls kept saying toss up right until the bitter end.

 

[teapartysamurai]

And that's another reason the polls could be oversampling Democrats.

Like I said, Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland are Big time Democrat.

If pollers are only calling the "metropolitian" areas and not the more rural parts of Ohio, OF COURSE they are going to get an oversampling of Democrats!

 

[teapartysamurai]

And last but not least there is the: "I don't want to diss the black guy" factor.

I see one or two Obama bumper stickers on the bumpers of cars, I never see Romney.

But I think most of Romney supporters are like me. We have seen the violence of the Unions and other wacko Obama supporters and we don't want to see our cars keyed.

When I had a Bush bumper sticker in 2004, I had my tires "mysteriously" punctured 8 times!

Liberals are the lowest.

You would never see a conservative doing something like that to a car with an Obama sticker.

 

[Black_Label]

And last but not least there is the: "I don't want to diss the black guy" factor.

I see one or two Obama bumper stickers on the bumpers of cars, I never see Romney.

But I think most of Romney supporters are like me. We have seen the violence of the Unions and other wacko Obama supporters and we don't want to see our cars keyed.

When I had a Bush bumper sticker in 2004, I had my tires "mysteriously" punctured 8 times!

Liberals are the lowest.

You would never see a conservative doing something like that to a car with an Obama sticker.

Whoops

Obama bumper sticker fuels violent political road rage in Tennessee. | ThinkProgress

 

[CrusaderFrank]

"Oversampling" Democrats is a polite way of accounting for voter fraud. In WI recall, there were more areas with votes cast than there were registered voters.

The non-living will come out big time, like never before for Obama. This will be the biggest, most blatant, more fraudulent election ever, especially in the swing states.

 

[Katzndogz]

It's not like Think Progress would ever print something that's not true! Most of what they say is not true.

In the bumper sticker war, in Los Angeles at least, it would appear that no one is winning. I have yet to see one on either side.

Unskewed Polls removes the weighting given to other polls and have Romney up across the board.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

 

[toxicmedia]

And last but not least there is the: "I don't want to diss the black guy" factor.

I see one or two Obama bumper stickers on the bumpers of cars, I never see Romney.

But I think most of Romney supporters are like me. We have seen the violence of the Unions and other wacko Obama supporters and we don't want to see our cars keyed.

When I had a Bush bumper sticker in 2004, I had my tires "mysteriously" punctured 8 times!

Liberals are the lowest.

You would never see a conservative doing something like that to a car with an Obama sticker.

With all this regurgiting of Romney campaign talking points to discount Obama's convention bump....which seems to be defying the laws of nature and staying aloft.......what makes you think Romney will act using Tea Party principles IF he is elected?.

Romney is not a Tea Parteir. He's a moderate Republican who will compromise more than Obama ever dreamed of.

I'm not so sure Romney is any better than Obama.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Either Republicans don't answer their phones, or they haven't a clue on party identification.

Give yourself a clue.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

 

[AmyNation]

There is no such thing as over sampling in a random poll.

However, this election has so many people totally disenfranchised with the two party system that independents are at an all time high nationally. So, while someone may be registered as a rep/dem when taking the survey it's very possible they stated they are independent.

 

[Zoom-boing]

And last but not least there is the: "I don't want to diss the black guy" factor.

I see one or two Obama bumper stickers on the bumpers of cars, I never see Romney.

But I think most of Romney supporters are like me. We have seen the violence of the Unions and other wacko Obama supporters and we don't want to see our cars keyed.

When I had a Bush bumper sticker in 2004, I had my tires "mysteriously" punctured 8 times!

Liberals are the lowest.

You would never see a conservative doing something like that to a car with an Obama sticker.

With all this regurgiting of Romney campaign talking points to discount Obama's convention bump....which seems to be defying the laws of nature and staying aloft.......what makes you think Romney will act using Tea Party principles IF he is elected?.

Romney is not a Tea Parteir. He's a moderate Republican who will compromise more than Obama ever dreamed of.

I'm not so sure Romney is any better than Obama.

I agree with the bolded and it would be wonderful to have a president who would actually compromise with (instead of shutting out or demonizing) the other side. That's no way to lead this great nation. Hell, that's not leadership at all. Anyone who campaigns for the job, knowing full well the mess they're "inheriting", then bitches and blames their predecessor four years obviously isn't up to the job.

If Romney wins but turns out to be nothing more than a "lesser-evil" version of Obama? I'm done with the GOP.

 

[Dick Tuck]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

Correct. They measure where a person is today. I expect Romney's free fall will continue, and Obama's win will be a clear mandate.

 

[Leweman]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

Correct. They measure where a person is today. I expect Romney's free fall will continue, and Obama's win will be a clear mandate.

Do you hear Obama talk when he isn't giving a speech? It's God awful. He will be destroyed in the debates with his uhhhhs and ummmms all night. This race isn't close now and definitely won't be close later.

 

[Black_Label]

It's not like Think Progress would ever print something that's not true! Most of what they say is not true.

In the bumper sticker war, in Los Angeles at least, it would appear that no one is winning. I have yet to see one on either side.

Unskewed Polls removes the weighting given to other polls and have Romney up across the board.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

Unskewedpolls is the biggest joke i've seen in a long time and is nothing but the right wing idiots getting all butthurt and calling conspiracy because they can't handle the truth that Obama is kicking Willard's ass. Hell even the radical right wing rasmussen thinks that site is bullshit.

 

[rightwinger]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Let's go right through them:

Washington Post poll: Obama +8​

Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com)

But check out these internals!:

Democrat: 35% Republican: 25% Independent: 32% Other 5% No opinion: 4%

Now, I don't know if that's how it's weighted or, it's simply that's all they could get through land lines, but that's HUGELY disproportionate to the real voters. They find voter registrations are just about equal. There are not 10% more Democrats than Republicans in the voting populace. In other words, inaccurate poll!



Now, the next poll:

Gravis Marketing: Obama +1 ​

Report, Ohio Sep 21-22, 2012(1)

Democrat: 41.4% Republican: 31:1% Independent: 27.5%

Just really really really oversampling Democrats!

Purple Strategies Obama +4​

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

Democrat: 38% Republican: 36% Independent: 26% Other: 2%

This is actually the most fair poll yet, but when you put the poll equally and consider the margin of error, it's a toss up!

Fox News: Obama +7​

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Democrat: 42% Republican: 36% Independent: 21% Other:1%

Now, THIS is really oversampled. You take away the over sampling and it puts it back again as a toss up!

University of Cincinnati: Obama +5​

Divided state still a toss-up | Cincinnati.com | cincinnati.com

Now, the U of Cin won't give their internals. Which I find interesting BUT if you take their online poll:

Cincinnati.com | Results: | cincinnati.com

It goes HUGE for Romney. Yes, I know an online poll is not a "scientific poll" but I bet it reaches more people than these land line polls


Last but not Least:

Rasmussen: Obama +1​

Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

You have to pay these greedy buggers to get their internals, but with a margin of error of 4.5%, once again toss up!

These polls are all over the place and most of them are demonstrably oversampled.

If they have to do that to show Obama ahead, what's it really going to be like on election day.

We shall see.

November is coming!

All the polls reach the same conclusion

There are more Democrats than Republicans

 

[AmyNation]

No polls are ever right this far from the election. Most polls are still wrong even the weekend before the election. I don't understand the obsession with polls.

IMO, the most important thing polls do is encourage/discourage people from voting. If the race is close, more people will feel their vote is important, and they will make time to vote. However if someone is decidedly ahead, it can discourage voters, the "what's the point?" mentality.

I expect the polls will be neck and neck up until election day, and that whoever wins will eek a victory a la bush/gore style.

 

[Dr.House]

Do democratics really think they will turnout in numbers 8-11 points more than republicans?

Srsly?