Social Security: It's worse than you think

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Quantum Windbag, Jan 6, 2013.

  1. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    I knew it was bad, but it turns out that the numbers I have been looking at depend on an erroneous assumption about life expectancy. It seems they expect everyone my age to be dead by 2028.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/06/opinion/sunday/social-security-its-worse-than-you-think.html?_r=1&

    There are charts at this link.

    Social Security?s Flawed Forecasting - Graphic - NYTimes.com
     
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  2. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    I posted this in another thread. It bears repeating here. I also recommend that people read the Trustees report each year. I combination with the Annual Financial Report of the United States (produced by the Treasury), one gets a very start understanding of how truly in debt our nation is.

    S.S. is not going bankrupt only if one assumes that SS taxes will increase dramatically.

    Under current projections, the annual cost of Social Security benefits expressed as a share of workers’ taxable earnings will grow rapidly from 11.3 percent in 2007, the last pre-recession year, to roughly 17.4 percent in 2035, and will then decline slightly before slowly increasing after 2050.[/ Costs display a slightly different pattern when expressed as a share of GDP. Program costs equaled 4.2 percent of GDP in 2007, and the Trustees project these costs will increase gradually to 6.4 percent of GDP in 2035 before declining to about 6.1 percent of GDP by 2050 and then remaining at about that level.


    SS benefit costs as a share of workers' taxable earnings is projected to increase by 53%, so expect such an increase in the current 6.2% SS tax rate over the next 20 years. (The alternative is to cut benefits).

    Also, Disability is nearly insolvent now; hardly surprising as the Obama Administration has used it to move people out of the workforce for two purposes: Income Redistribution and to lower Unemployment Stats.

    However, the Disability Insurance (DI) program satisfies neither the long-range test nor the short-range test. DI costs have exceeded non-interest income since 2005, and the Trustees project trust fund exhaustion in 2016, two years earlier than projected last year. The DI program faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds; thus lawmakers need to act soon to avoid reduced payments to DI beneficiaries four years from now.

    The quotes are from:

    A SUMMARY OF THE 2012 ANNUAL REPORTS
    Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees

    Trustees Report Summary
     
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  3. Samson
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    Samson Póg Mo Thóin Supporting Member

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    Well perhaps after pot is legalized nationally life expectancy will decline as lung cancer prevails.

    See, you need to begin to appreciate the silver lining of unintended consequences
     
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  4. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Snafu in Social Security Admin. gives aliens two S.S. numbers...
    :eek:
    Government Gave 4,317 Aliens 2 Social Security Numbers a Piece
    January 29, 2013 – A report from the Social Security Administration Inspector General (IG) found 4,317 instances where a non-citizen was able to obtain two Social Security numbers, including 542 instances that happened since 2001.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
  5. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    Social Security still has a $2.7 trillion surplus and is good to around 2033 - even with no changes.

    Plus, Social Security doesn't cost the government one penny - other than the interest paid on the government bonds held by Social Security - just like China and other holders of U.S. debt.

    Social Security is the largest holder of U.S. debt - which is why NaziCons would like to fuck it over.
     
  6. OKTexas
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    OKTexas New Life Member of the NRA 12/15 Supporting Member

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    What we need is another payroll tax holiday, that'll help.
     
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  7. auditor0007
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    auditor0007 Gold Member

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    While I think we all understood the purpose behind it, we really could not afford it. The thing that bothers me is how conservatives are now crying that Democrats raised taxes on the middle class by letting the tax holiday end. Things like that are the reason I am having a very difficult time taking anything from right wingers seriously.
     
  8. auditor0007
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    auditor0007 Gold Member

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    SS is easily fixable. Whether anyone likes it or not, we are going to raise the retirement age, as that is the most important step to making SS sustainable for the long run. What makes this the most attractive fix is that it cuts benefits on the front end, at a time when most people can figure out how to get by without it, either by saving more before hand, or by working longer if need be.

    In order to make this work, employers will need to keep older employees working longer. And this is where the ACA comes into play as there are limits to the cost of premiums from health insurers as some of the cost is shifted downward, which will make it easier for employers to keep employees on a few extra years. The good news is that many CEO's are already pushing for this, and their reasoning makes sense. They don't want to see a payroll tax increase as it would be cheaper just to keep people working longer.

    CEOs want to raise the retirement age to 70

    There is one other benefit to having people work longer; they will pay into both SS and Medicare for a longer period of time. Yes, some people would be pushed into disability if they physically could not work past 65, but the fact is that the vast majority of workers are not in white collar or soft jobs where their bodies don't take as much abuse. I realize that construction workers and many blue collar workers may not be able to work to 70, but this is something that can be solved, if we want to try.

    Bottom line is that this is going to happen eventually, so if you are younger, you better prepare for it. The good thing is that by doing so, everyone will continue receiving full benefits once they do hit retirement age.
     
  9. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    Trust Fund FAQs
     
  10. Clementine
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    Clementine Platinum Member Supporting Member

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    Don't worry, Obamacare is going to take care of Social Security. People 75 and older will be denied lifesaving procedures and given pain pills. So, fat chance of anyone living to be 80, 90 or 100 once Obamacare if fully implemented.

    Illegal aliens have benefitted from a lot of things they shouldn't have. Look at Obama's aunt, who lives better than most of us. A lot of money is spent on illegal aliens. Our money.
     

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