Set condition red! Emergency alpha! Emergency alpha!

[DavidS]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0_xMQ7yxTo]YouTube - Red Alert ![/ame]

National Weather Service Text Product Display

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE SECOND COASTAL LOW. WITH
00Z ECMWF COMING IN VERY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS AND GOOD SUPPORT FROM
00Z CMC GLOBAL AND TYPICAL LAG TO THE S/SE IN GEFS MEAN...WITH
FAIR TO SOLID SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NAM WITH ITS MORE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PROGRESSION DUE TO ITS EVENTUAL OPENING UP OF CUT
OFF LOW (AND WAITING TO PHASE IT WITH LAST OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES) IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...HAVE SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO
THE NW SUPPLYING CONSTANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW LIFTING NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND 850 LOW
TRACKING MAINLY TO THE S/E OF CWA (MIGHT CROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTION)...SO HAVE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND FOR
MINIMAL MID LEVEL WARMING. BASICALLY EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY EVENING (IF FOLLOW MORE OF ECMWF THAN GFS WITH DEFORMATION
AXIS PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW). WILL HAVE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WARM AIR OVER EASTERN AREAS...THAT SHOULD SEE SOME SLEET
MIXED IN...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. WITH QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND .5 INCHES NW TO 1.5 INCHES
SE AND TEMPERATURES HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW RATIONS WHERE HAVE
LOWER QPF...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (USE 24 HOUR
CRITERIA SINCE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER 12 HOURS)...SO HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH AS A RESULT.

THINGS THAT COULD GO WRONG... 1) LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...LIMITING
QPF ENOUGH OVER NW AREAS TO A LEVEL THAT WILL NOT REACHING WARNING
AMOUNTS 2) TO MUCH MID LEVEL WARM AIR WORKS IN OVER EASTERN AREAS
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF 850 LOW...PRODUCING MORE SLEET THAN
SNOW...HOLDING AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING LEVELS THERE. 3) DEPENDING ON
EXACT STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TOO MUCH DRY AIR COULD WORK IN AT THE
LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS LIMITING
AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE IN WATCH RUNS FROM 50 PCT OVER NW AREAS TO AROUND 70%
OVER CT/LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW FORECASTING 6-9 INCHES OVER THE
NW...AND 9-12 INCHES OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DO SEE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE OVER A FOOT DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE
ANTICIPATED BANDING DOES SET UP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OF MONDAY EVENING (FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE IN
WATCH AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT).

WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DID
NOT OPT TO INCLUDE THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE WATCH. ALSO SO THE SNOW
GRID ON THE WEB PAGE WOULD MATCH UP WITH THE WATCH...DID NOT MAKE

A SNOW GRID FOR THE FIRST SUB ADVISORY EVENT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL EXPECTED TO BRING ADVERSE FLYING CONDITIONS
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND LI...WITH 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT. IMPACT WILL BE VERY TRACK
DEPENDANT...AND ALL AVIATION INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP UPDATED
ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[del]

put a sock in it, it might snow

whoopee

 

[xsited1]

It's snowing in Little Rock right now. Well, it's actually sleeting, but it's about as close as we get to snow.

 

[DavidS]

.short term /6 am sunday morning through monday night/...
A major winter storm is on tap for sunday night into monday as
a deepening southern branch closed low gets picked by an amplifying
northern branch trof sliding across the great lakes and into the
northeast.

After some light snow in the morning sun...mainly along the
coast...weak riding both aloft and at the surface will shut down
the pcpn for the afternoon hours. This will be a brief respite
though...as low pressure tracks off the carolina coast in the
evening. A strong coastal front develops along the eastern
seaboard in the evening...aided by a strengthening n/ne flow (cold
conveyor belt). At the same time...a coupling jet structure
between the two branches of the polar jet establishes deep-layered
lift after 03z. This results in heavy snowfall breaking out during
the late evening hours and continuing into monday morning. There
is some concern with the proximity of the 85h low and warm air in
the mid levels moving across eastern li and se ct. This would
result in some sleet mixing in at the height of the storm.
However...current thinking is for a mainly snow forecast based on
model track consensus and thermal fields.

Model qpf generally around an inch from nyc and points east...with
half an inch up across northern portions of the lower hudson
valley. This results in snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches with the
highest amounts across eastern sections at this time.

Due to the complex interaction between the two branches of the
polar jet...uncertainty remains in the track of the storm. A
deviation to the east or west by hundred miles would have
significant impacts. Right now though...the global model ensemble
as well as the 18z nam wrf...are in remarkably good agreement.
Should this trend continue with the 00z model run...warnings would
be issued overnight.

Snow tapers off in the aft on mon with strong cold advection on
the backside and wind gusts up to 40 mph. The tight pressure
gradient on the nw flank of the storm could produce blizzard
condition at times. a blizzard warning is not out of the question.

 

[Terry]

SE Va won't get snow that will stick...LOL I've been here 5 years and maybe a total of 2 inches in all that time.

 

[Jon]

It's snowing in Little Rock right now. Well, it's actually sleeting, but it's about as close as we get to snow.

We've got about an inch and it's still coming down pretty strong. It was sleeting some last night, and it snowed a bit too. That all melted this morning, but then the temperature dropped about 15 degrees and it started up again.

And my mom in Helena said they've had a few flurries, but no accumulation.

 

[auditor0007]

If this is the best you can do, giving us the local weather report, please find a new hobby.

 

[DavidS]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVe2k4GpKg&feature=related]YouTube - Red Alert[/ame]

Up to 17 inches is currently forecasted in the major metropolitan cities of I-95. According to the NWS, a Blizzard Warning is not out of the quesiton.

 

[midcan5]

This was the worst I have ever seen. I actually had to go into work that day, hitched a ride to center city where I walked and thankfully the subway ran so I got close enough to walk home as this much snow closed the world. What was so amazing, there was so much snow they had no place to put it and piled it in fields or dumped in the Delaware. We had 30 inches by most counts.

The Worst Snow Storm Of The Century

some perspective on storms through the years.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html